How Has Ukraine So Far Survived the Winter Without Energy Blackouts?

The end of January marks the traditional halfway point of winter for Ukrainians, measured by the length of the late October to early April heating season. This is normally the coldest season for Ukraine making energy conservation crucial.

Electricity is not only a source of light in the darkest months but is also essential for the country’s centralized domestic heating systems and the operation of individual boiler rooms.

On the eve of winter, Kyiv Post reported yet another wave of Russian missile and attack drone strikes targeted on Ukraine’s energy system. This led a variety of experts to consider a range of different scenarios for how Ukraine would get through the season. The winter of 2022-23 had been difficult following large-scale missile strikes on thermal power plants and substations, which led to regular power outages and heating problems.

This winter,with a reduction in missile attacks but an increase in the number of “Shahed” drone strikes experts were reluctant to make specific forecasts but were generally pessimistic about the winter outlook.

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As the cold season approached, Ukrenergo began to plan against three possible scenarios another Russian heavy campaign of attacks, a limited bombardment, or none at all. Deputy Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee on Housing and Utilities, Oleksiy Kucherenko, said the key unknown was whether Moscow would dare to strike nuclear facilities, which are the backbone of the Ukrainian energy sector producing more than 50% of Ukraine’s electricity.

Forecasting was further complicated because Ukraine’s energy sector had still not fully recovered from the previous winter’s Russian onslaught.

According to Ukrenergo, at the end of 2021, the total installed capacity of Ukraine’s Unified Power System was 56.169 GW, of which 49.7% came from centralized and community thermal power, 24.6% from nuclear power plants, 11.2% from hydroelectric and pumped storage power plants, and 14.3% from renewable sources.

By the middle of 2024 around half of the generation capacity, particularly almost all thermal power, was lost. The Russians had been targeting Ukraine’s “maneuvering capacities” - those that ensure the stability of the energy system. Moscow’s war against Ukraine continues to be characterized by most as genocidal and aims cause maximum suffering to civilians, including those away from the front lines.

“In 2024, Russia carried out 13 massive attacks on the Ukrainian energy sector. As in previous years, thermal generation was at the epicenter of the enemy’s focus. Ten of these massive attacks were directed at and caused serious damage to DTEK Energy’s thermal power plants.

“Between March and July last year, 90% of the company’s thermal generation was damaged or destroyed. By the beginning of winter, the energy sector had managed to restore more than half of its capacity, but three new waves of attacks in November and December caused further serious damage.

“In total, since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, DTEK’s thermal power plants have been shelled more than 200 times. Due to attacks while performing their professional duties, 56 power plant engineers were injured, and four died,” the press service of DTEK, the largest private operator in the market, told Kyiv Post.

However, despite constant strikes by ballistic missiles and raids by up to a hundred Shahed UAVs, Ukraine has been able to get by without any significant power outages or disruption of the heating system at the winter’s halfway point.

Kyiv Post spoke with experts and power engineers to try to work out how Ukraine had achieved the stability of its power system.

Modernization of defense and weakening of the Russians

All of the experts we spoke to drew attention to a general strengthening of the defenses around strategic facilities, in particular the protective systems for thermal power plants of every size. The Restoration Agency has built several hundred protective structures of for substations, making the result of a hit less devastating than before.

“First of all, this is the second-level protection over key substations. These are large concrete structures that make substations invulnerable to missile fragments that hit nearby. In some cases, they even protected facilities from direct missile hits,” energy expert Volodymyr Vasylenko said.

Another factor has been the wider availability and electronic warfare (EW) systems that have vastly the effectiveness of Shaheds and other unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV):

“The mechanism is simple - a field of radio-electronic interference is created in a certain area, suppressing the satellite navigation signal. The Shahed loses its target, flies past, and wanders until it runs out of fuel or is shot down. This is why air raid alarms are so long. Under EW influence, the Shahed no longer steers itself and is very vulnerable to wind, deviating by approximately 5 kilometers every 100 km,” Oleg Katkov, an analyst at the Defense Express group told Kyiv Post.

Additionally, the number of Russian attacks has significantly decreased. According to multiple media reports, Russia is facing economic and technical difficulties due to sanctions and cannot produce missiles at the same pace or quality as before.

While mass strikes occurred every few days during the winter of 2022-23, currently they happen about once a month.

“We have fewer and fewer regular missile attacks from the Russians. The exact reason is unclear, but it’s likely a combination of factors. Our energy system has strong repair and restoration capabilities, and the sector has accumulated enough equipment for repairs,” Vasylenko said.

However, Russia has not abandoned its aims to destroy Ukraine’s energy sector.

“Over the past year, we have experienced 13 large-scale, massive, combined attacks on energy facilities, not counting individual strikes. It cannot be said that they had no impact. It may seem that we quickly repaired everything and nothing happened, but if weather conditions had been more severe, we would have faced serious problems,” according to energy analyst Hennadii Ryabtsev.

Decentralization

Ukraine is also changing the way it produces power and is actively developing small, stand-alone energy capacities, such as gas compressor stations, combined heat and power (CHP) stations running on pellets or recycled fuel and is modernizing Soviet-era boiler houses. This gives many cities and towns their own source of electricity generation, while energy efficiency programs, often funded by foreign grants, have reduced heat consumption, further easing the strain on the energy system.

For example, it was reported that almost 100 MW of alternative capacity was introduced in Zhytomyr, simplifying energy provision for this 300,000-strong city. Similar efforts have been made in Vinnytsia, Ternopil, Lviv, and parts of Kyiv.

“To be honest, we hoped that we would be able to increase the total capacity of small generation facilities in the country to 1,000 MW within a year. However, we managed to create more than 400 MW, which is already a good result,” an official from Ukraine’s Unified Power System told Kyiv Post.

A very warm winter

An abnormally warm winter has reduced the load on thermal power plants and CHPs. January saw no days with sub-zero temperatures, and by late January, temperatures in some areas had reached nearly +10°C - unusual even for late autumn. A year ago, mid-January temperatures dropped to -15°C.

“The maths is simple - every degree below zero adds 100 MW of load to the power system. This winter is incredibly warm, likely breaking records,” Vasylenko said.

“We haven’t had a single day this winter when the average temperature dropped below zero - that’s all. If it had, we would have faced a deficit and outages. But now, the energy sector has additional time and opportunities to carry out repairs and improve the state of the energy system,” Ryabtsev said.

Assistance from allies 

Since joining the European energy system at the start of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine has built infrastructure that enables electricity to be imported from the EU. In 2024, Ukraine imported 4.4 million MWh – more than five times the 2023 levels.

The majority of these imports occurred in the summer after Russian strikes on maneuvering capacities, ensuring backup power during deficits.

Allies, through USAID programs and volunteer initiatives, have provided over 4,000 powerful generators to Ukrainian schools, hospitals, transport agencies, and businesses. These backup systems ensured critical operations during outages and allowed energy workers to conduct repairs more efficiently.

Too early to relax

Experts agree that Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power system are likely to continue, especially if the weather turns colder or its missile stockpiles are replenished.

“In 2024 alone, power engineers have restored than 20 DTEK TPPs from scratch and repaired them after enemy hits on 49 occasions since the full-scale invasion began,” the DTEK press service reported.

While Ukraine’s energy sector has demonstrated resilience, experts emphasize that the key to its long-term protection lies in increased air defense support from Ukraine’s allies.