ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 4, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi visited the Kyivska Electrical Substation in Kyiv Oblast on February 4 to assess damage to the substation as Russian long-range strikes targeting energy infrastructure continue to threaten Ukraine’s nuclear power plants (NPPS) and Ukraine’s energy production capabilities
• Russian officials continue to justify the Kremlin’s decision to not conduct an involuntary reserve call up at this time despite indications that the Russian military is struggling to recruit enough new personnel to replace its high casualties.
• Russian occupation authorities continue to discuss Russia’s possible illegal annexation of Kharkiv Oblast but claimed that Ukraine’s September 2022 counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast spoiled Russia’s plans to hold a “referendum” in the region at that time.
• A significant number of Russian vessels that had been at the Port of Tartus in recent weeks may have left Syria for Russia as Russian-Syrian negotiations about Russia’s continued access to its bases in Syria reportedly continue.
• Ukrainian naval drone strikes have likely forced Russia to dramatically alter Russian ships’ routes between Russia and Syria.
• Russia has also reportedly used vessels belonging to the MoD’s Oboronlogistika company to monitor NATO vessels in the Baltic Sea.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk.
• A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces in the Siversk direction continue to struggle with systemic issues with field commanders filing false progress reports despite recent command changes.

Authors: Christina Harward, Olivia Gibson, Davit Gasparyan, Nicole Wolkov, and Frederick W. Kagan.

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