ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 5, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to demonstrate his willingness to negotiate with Russia from a principled position that preserves Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the long run.
• Zelensky reiterated that the Ukrainian Constitution bans Ukraine from holding elections during wartime, but that Ukraine remains committed to holding elections in accordance with Ukraine’s constitution and laws after the war ends.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on February 4 that Russian forces have suffered roughly 300,000 to 350,000 killed in action (KIA) and roughly 600,000 to 700,000 wounded in action (WIA) since the February 2022 start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a strike against an oil depot in Krasnodar Krai on the night of February 4 to 5 as a part of an ongoing strike campaign against Russian defense industrial enterprises and oil refineries.
• The Russian military continues efforts to restructure Russia’s peacetime military administrative control over military services (вид; vid) and is apparently disaggregating administrative control for Russia’s Air Force and Navy from Russia’s military districts.
• The Kremlin continues to prioritize domestic political stability over efforts to mitigate economic pressure and labor shortages.
• Ukraine and Russia conducted a one-for-one prisoner-of-war (POW) exchange on February 5.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk.

Authors: Christina Harward, Olivia Gibson, Davit Gasparyan, Nicole Wolkov, and Frederick W. Kagan.

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