World Briefing: February 11, 2025

President Trump said on Monday that he could cut aid to Jordan and Egypt if they refused his demand to permanently take in most Palestinians from Gaza, substantially increasing the pressure on key allies in the region to back his audacious proposal to relocate the entire population of the territory in order to redevelop it. The president also said from the White House that if Hamas did not release all the remaining Israeli hostages by “12 o’clock on Saturday,” the cease-fire agreement with Israel should be canceled. “All hell is going to break out,” Mr. Trump said to reporters in the Oval Office, while acknowledging that the choice over ending the cease-fire ultimately fell to Israel. Jordan and Egypt, both major recipients of U.S. military and economic aid, have rejected any suggestion that Palestinians be relocated to their countries. But Mr. Trump said on Monday that the assistance could be in jeopardy - NYT

Russian officials believe western pressure is hampering Moscow’s efforts to draw former Soviet nations closer into its orbit and build economic ties with the global south, according to a leaked government report. The internal presentation, shown at a strategy session led by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin last April, offers a rare insight into how Russia’s war in Ukraine has harmed ties with some of its closest allies. The analysis notably concedes that western sanctions pressure, as well as economic overtures, had succeeded in driving a wedge between Moscow and some of its nearest trade partners. Moscow’s ambition, the report says, is to restore its access to global trade by putting Russia at the centre of a Eurasian trade bloc that would aim to rival the US, EU, and China’s spheres of economic influence. Russia sees creating the “macroregion” as an important long-term project, which would outlast any talks with the west over the future of Ukraine, to help strengthen its footing on the “global arena”, the report says. The new bloc would connect Russia to the global south by giving each side access to raw materials, developing financial and transport ties, and uniting them through a common “world view . . . where we write rules for the new world [and have] our own sanctions policy”, the report claims. But it admits the obstacles to Russia’s global resurgence remain considerable. The report says western countries have successfully threatened central Asian countries into complying with sanctions through a “carrot-and-stick” approach while offering them access to global markets, transport corridors and supply chains that bypass Moscow. - FT

Hamas says it’s delaying the release of Israeli hostages until further notice, accusing Israel of breaching the Gaza ceasefire agreement. “Violations include delaying the return of displaced persons to northern Gaza, targeting them with shelling and gunfire in various areas of the Strip, and failing to allow the entry of humanitarian aid in all its agreed-upon forms,” Hamas says. Israel calls the decision a “complete violation” of the ceasefire deal, which began last month. “I have instructed the IDF to prepare at the highest level of alert for any possible scenario in Gaza,” says Defence Minister Israel Katz. In total, 17 Israeli hostages were still due to be released in the first phase of the ceasefire, eight of whom Israel says are dead. The next release was due on Saturday . Hundreds of Palestinian prisoners have been freed by Israel in exchange for the hostages released so far - BBC

A consortium led by Elon Musk offered $97.4 billion to buy the nonprofit that controls OpenAI, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday, months after the billionaire sued the artificial intelligence startup to block it from transitioning to a for-profit firm. Musk’s bid could ratchet up longstanding tensions between himself and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman over the future of the startup at the heart of a boom in generative AI technology. The two are already embroiled in an ongoing lawsuit. Musk criticized a massive, $500 billion OpenAI-led project called Stargate announced with great fanfare at the White House just after President Donald Trump returned to office, suggesting the investors involved lacked the funding for the project. Musk’s attorney, Marc Toberoff, said he submitted the bid to OpenAI’s board on Monday, according to the report - Reuters

Due to the massive rocket attack in Ukraine, emergency power outages are being implemented, Ukrenergo announced. The restrictive measures will be lifted after the air alert ends and the situation in the power system stabilizes. Overnight, Russian forces reportedly attacked gas infrastructure.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to visit the U.S. on Wednesday. President Donald Trump announced Modi’s White House visit as India’s foreign secretary, Vikram Misri, met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing, where they agreed to restore bilateral ties and resume direct flights and pilgrimages by Indian pilgrims to a holy site in Tibet. While Modi’s government has shifted toward populist policies, China launched an aggressive public relations campaign in 2024 to improve its standing with India. Analysts view China’s diplomatic push as a response to the deepening U.S.-India partnership and Beijing’s desire to maintain regional influence, particularly given expected tensions with the Trump administration - VOA

Hundreds of Russian soldiers are being treated in North Korean hospitals, a Russian diplomat said, comments that provide another glimpse into the scale of cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang in the Ukraine war. In an interview with the state-run Rossiiskaya Gazeta newspaper, Russia’s ambassador to North Korea, Aleksandr Matsegora, provided few details as to how many Russians have been hospitalized in North Korea, nor did he give specifics on casualties or deaths. “A clear example of the brotherly attitude [between Moscow and Pyongyang] is the rehabilitation of hundreds of wounded soldiers of the [Ukraine war] in Korean sanatoriums and hospitals,” he was quoted as saying. Moscow turned to North Korea for help in its all-out invasion of Ukraine roughly six months after its start in February 2022. Western intelligence said Russia was buying millions of artillery shells from North Korea -- reports that were backed up by satellite imagery showing reconstruction of railyards, railway bridges, and port facilities along their shared border, on the Pacific Coast. Last fall, North Korean soldiers began appearing on battlefields along Russia’s border, primarily in the Kursk region, which Ukraine invaded in August - RFE/RL

The front page of the February 10th People’s Daily has an article which suggests concerns about large scale foreign capital flight from China are unfounded. “Looking at the short term, since 2021 China has attracted over 1 trillion yuan of foreign investment for three consecutive years. The massive inflow of foreign capital has met concentrated investment demand, so the contraction seen in 2024 is within a normal range” - and that “as some in the US and the West have politicized economic and trade issues, global cross-border investment has remained sluggish—posing significant challenges for China in attracting foreign capital. The more severe the external environment becomes, the more necessary it is to pursue higher-quality development and a higher level of openness to address external uncertainties.” So while trying to project confidence this article is not unreasonably seen as a sign of concern over the decline in foreign investment. - Simocism

Residents of Perth, Australia, have an unusual culprit to blame for their Sunday evening plans getting canceled: a dreaded “fatberg” causing wastewater to overflow. Fatbergs are massive globs of congealed cooking fat, grease and other waste often held together by wet wipes and rags that create huge water blockages in sewer systems and can be tedious and expensive to remove. The blockage was detected near a Perth arena mere hours before Canadian musician Bryan Adams’ sold-out show was set to take place. Workers were called to help clear up the fatberg, but were unable to resolve it before the start of the show. Water authorities warned of wastewater flowing into the venue, forcing organizers to cancel the show and upsetting the many fans who had received no communication and had been waiting for entry - NPR

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