FACT-CHECK: Is Ukraine Selling US Weapons to Mexican Cartels, as Tucker Carlson Claimed?

US talk host Tucker Carlson made a bold claim that half the weapons Kyiv received from Washington were sold to Mexican cartels in an interview published on Monday, Feb. 10.

In the interview with retired US Col. Daniel Davis, Carlson said he “[knows] that for a fact, not speculation, a fact” that the Ukrainian military is selling “up to half” of weapons received from the Pentagon, which he claimed ended up in the hands of Mexican cartels that threaten US security.

“Second fact. Not guess. Fact is, [the] Ukrainian military is selling a huge percentage, up to half of the arms that we send them. Half. And I’m not guessing because I know this for a fact. A fact, okay? Not speculation.

“And they’re selling it, and a lot of it’s winding up with the drug cartels on our border. So this... is a crime,” Carlson said.

He then went on to say that the US “[intelligence] agencies are fully aware of this” and claimed the CIA actually profited from the alleged sales – before adding that he “can’t prove that, but [he believes] that.”

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“We are sending these arms to Ukraine, billions upon hundreds of billions of dollars, and it’s being stolen and sold to our actual enemies,” he said, adding that “the New York Times could get on the web to order Ukrainian weapons.”

It is unclear why Carlson mentioned the New York Times specifically, but it might be a reference to a recent opinion titled “Shopping for Arms? Ukraine May Soon Be Your Best Bet,” which discussed Ukraine’s budding arms industry rather than black market trades.

Notwithstanding Carlson’s claims that he knows “for a fact,” he has provided no evidence to back them up.

The claims also contradicted a recent statement by Keith Kellogg, US President Donald Trump’s handpicked Ukraine-Russia special envoy.

Kellogg said the US has committed over $174 billion to the nation at war, and the money is accounted for through US audits, with some invested in the US’s domestic arms industry to help supply Kyiv’s defense needs.

“We have put inspector generals on the ground, in Ukraine, in here, to track that money, so we have a pretty good account into where it’s going,” Kellogg said in a recent interview with US conservative outlet Newsmax.

Ukraine Oversight, a public website created by US officials to track and oversee US funding for Ukraine after Russia’s invasion, provides a detailed account of ongoing and closed audits.

Is Ukraine selling US weapons on the black market?

Kellogg said the money is being accounted for, but what about the weapons?

A simple way to debunk Carlson’s claim is to look at the weapons Ukraine received and what the Mexican cartels are using.

According to Defense Express, Washington’s weapon deliveries for Ukraine in 2024 stood at $21 billion, the majority of which are heavy weapons as opposed to small arms.

The deliveries included more than a million rounds of artillery shells, more than 120 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), and an undisclosed number of HIMARS and ATACMS missiles, among various weapon systems.

There are no signs that Mexican cartels are using Bradleys or firing US artillery systems against the US yet.

The Pentagon also provided Ukraine with a substantial amount of small arms and munitions – while it is certain that AR pattern rifles were used by both the Ukrainian military (to a small degree) and Mexican cartels, whether the ones used by the latter came from Ukraine is hard to be determined conclusively, and logistically it would be much simpler to source them illegally from the US or Latin American nations.

Kyiv Post cannot say with absolute certainty that Ukrainian weapons have not made it to third nations, though Mexico remains an unlikely destination due to logistics concerns.

At any rate, that won’t be “billions” worth of weapons stolen, considering the M4 carbine costs less than $700 brand new per unit in government contracts, and a billion dollars would get you close to 1.5 million rifles – enough to arm a nation, even the US with its 1.3 million troops in active service.

Trophy weapons in Ukraine

There have, however, been recorded cases of illegal trophy weapon sales in Ukraine, albeit in relatively small numbers for known cases.

In addition, the weapons traded are mostly captured Russian weapons on the front, not provided by Uncle Sam.

On Feb. 3, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said it arrested 17 arms dealers for selling grenades and Russian AK-12 rifles collected from combat zones. A month prior, the SBU announced similar arrests of 15 suspected arms dealers for selling unspecified Russian Kalashnikov-pattern rifles and grenades – as well as anti-tank rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs).

Granted, there are likely more cases of illegal weapon sales than what’s publicized, but “billions upon hundreds of billions of dollars” of US-provided weapons are being sold illegally, as Carlson claimed, is highly unlikely to be true due to the aforementioned reasons.