World Briefing: February 12, 2025

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the Gaza ceasefire will end if Hamas does not release Israeli hostages on Saturday. Hamas said on Monday it would not release three Israelis as planned this weekend, because of alleged Israeli violations of the ceasefire. Netanyahu says the Israeli military is ready to “return to intense fighting until Hamas is finally defeated.” In total, 17 Israeli hostages were still due to be released in the first phase of the ceasefire, eight of whom Israel says are dead. Hundreds of Palestinian prisoners have been freed by Israel so far - BBC

At an impromptu and chaotic press gaggle in the Oval Office, King Abdullah of Jordan was put on the spot by reporters and asked what he thought of Mr Trump’s plans to take over Gaza and resettle its some 2-million inhabitants to Jordan and Egypt. The King said conversations are continuing with the US and with other Arab countries, and that he was waiting to hear Egypt’s proposals. “Obviously, we have to look at the best interests of the United States, of the people in the region, especially to my people of Jordan,” he said. “We have to keep in mind that there is a plan from Egypt and the Arab countries. We’re being invited by [Saudi Crown Prince] Mohammed bin Salman to discussions in Riyadh. I think the point is, how to make this work in a way that is good for everybody,” he added. King Abdullah did not respond directly to Mr Trump’s comment that he believes, “we’ll have a parcel of land in Jordan … a parcel of land in Egypt…We may have someplace else, but I think when we finish our talks, [the Palestinians from Gaza will] have a place where they’re going to live very happily and very safely,” Mr Trump said. But after the meeting, King Abdullah reiterated what he said was Jordan’s and the Arab world’s, “steadfast position against the displacement of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank..Rebuilding Gaza without displacing the Palestinians and addressing the dire humanitarian situation should be the priority for all,” he said in a post on X. - The National

Donald Trump risks creating a new conflict between Israel and the Arab states, the head of the Arab League has said. Ahmed Aboul Gheit, Secretary General of the Arab League, said: “US President Donald Trump is moving toward dragging the Middle East into a new cycle of conflict between Israel and the Arab world - jeopardising peace and everything we have worked to build in this region,” he said. “The US should maintain a balanced approach between Israelis and Palestinians. Gaza can be reconstructed without displacing residents.” Jasem Albudaiwi, Secretary General of the Gulf Co-operation Council, said that the US-Arab relationship must be a “two-way street”. He added: “As Gulf states, we value our relations with the US, but it must be a two-way street. No one can impose a certain reality on us, and we cannot accept the forced displacement of Palestinians - something that is internationally rejected. Trump understands the importance of US relations with Gulf and Arab states.” - The National

Marc Fogel, an American history teacher who was deemed wrongfully detained by Russia, has been released and returned to the U.S. in what the White House described as a diplomatic thaw that could advance negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Steve Witkoff, a special envoy for President Donald Trump, left Russia with Fogel and brought him to the White House, where Trump greeted him. Trump said another American would be released on Wednesday, though he declined to name the person or say from what country, only saying it was someone “very special.” The president declined to say if he spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin about Fogel, but Fogel praised the Russian leader as “very generous and statesmanlike in granting me a pardon.” Asked about the terms of the deal, Trump said: “Very fair, very, very fair, very reasonable. Not like deals you’ve seen over the years. They were very fair.” He did not say what the United States exchanged for Fogel’s release. Fogel was arrested in August 2021 and was serving a 14-year prison sentence. His family and supporters said he had been traveling with medically prescribed marijuana, and he was designated by President Joe Biden’s administration as wrongfully detained in December. Michael Waltz, Trump’s national security adviser, said the U.S. and Russia “negotiated an exchange” to ensure Fogel’s release. He did not say what the U.S. side of the bargain entailed. Previous negotiations have occasionally involved reciprocal releases of Russians by the U.S. or its allies. Waltz said the development was “a sign we are moving in the right direction to end the brutal and terrible war in Ukraine.” Trump, a Republican, has promised to find a way to end the conflict. - AP

Fogel’s release and Trump’s announcement that he will send Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to Kyiv for talks with Ukraine’s leaders could signal that plans may be beginning to take shape. Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump’s special envoy for Russia and Ukraine, retired Gen. Keith Kellogg, will all be traveling later this week to the Munich Security Conference, where the situation in Ukraine will be a major topic of discussion. Kellogg told The Associated Press on Monday that he and the others would be talking to European officials about the very broad outlines of what Trump would like to see and gauging their interest “We will deliver our expectation to the allies,” Kellogg said. “When we come back from Munich — we want to deliver to the president the options, so when he does get (directly) involved in the peace process, he knows what it will look like for him.”

A new Danish intelligence report has warned about the prospect of Russia launching a large-scale war against European members of Nato within five years, if the US no longer offers its support. It’s two years before it poses a credible threat to one or more members in the Baltic sea region, it added.

Elon Musk has called for the shutdown of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) and Voice of America (VOA), two media organizations funded by the U.S. government (and frequently cited in my World Briefing daily updates), claiming they are no longer relevant. Musk made the remarks in response to a post on X by Richard Grenell, the U.S. Special Envoy for Special Missions, who criticized the outlets as taxpayer-funded media filled with “far-left activists”“It’s state-owned media,” Grenell wrote. “These outlets are a relic of the past. We don’t need government-paid media outlets.” Musk agreed, posting: “Yes, shut them down.” He went on to claim that the organizations “are just radical left crazy people talking to themselves while torching $1 billion a year of U.S. taxpayer money.” RFE/RL and VOA operate under the U.S. Agency for Global Media and were originally established to counter propaganda during the Cold War. They continue to broadcast in regions with restricted press freedom, including Russia, Iran, and parts of Central Asia. The Trump administration previously sought to scale back funding for government-supported international media and foreign aid programs, a move that was strongly opposed by congressional Democrats - AMU

The legal profession’s U.S. governing body says President Donald Trump’s decrees and actions since the inauguration are “wide-scale affronts to the rule of law itself.” In a statement posted on X, the American Bar Association criticised Trump’s plans to end birthright citizenship and dismantle USAID as well as his attempts to criminalize people who work on DEI programs. It also attacked Trump’s refusal to spend money on these programs “under the euphemism of a pause,” which it said was a “violation of the rule of law,” and suggested that Trump was creating a constitutional crisis by overruling Congress and the judiciary. In a lengthy statement which did not mention Trump by name, the ABA also attacked the administration’s use of social media, which it said appears “to be motivated by a desire to inflame without any factual basis. This is chaotic. It may appeal to a few. But it is wrong.” The statement added: “These actions do not make America stronger. They make us weaker... Americans expect better.” - Daily Beast

The physical gold reserves held by Russian banks have fallen to the lowest level since July 2022. Citing data from Russia’s Central Bank, RBC reported that, as of January 1, 2025, the total value of precious metals and gemstones on Russian banks’ balance sheets had dropped to 325.4 billion rubles ($3.4 billion). Converted to gold, that amounts to 38.1 metric tons, the lowest level since July 2022. According to the Central Bank, gold reserves declined 23.6 percent in monetary terms over the course of 2024. Measured in physical gold, however, the drop was far steeper — 46.4 percent, or more than 33 metric tons. The last time reserves fell so sharply was in 2020, when the economic crisis and the pandemic led to a 34.5-metric-ton decline. Experts interviewed by RBC linked the slump to a high key interest rate in Russia and record-breaking gold prices. Gold reserves in Russian banks had reached an all-time high on October 1, 2023, when financial institutions held 472.4 billion rubles’ ($4.9 billion) worth of precious metals, or more than 80 metric tons of gold - Medusa

In the Arctic, as the climate warms, crevasses on the Greenland Ice Sheet are widening more rapidly, which is expected to accelerate ice loss and contribute to rising sea levels, according to a new study published in early February. The study’s findings, conducted by Durham University in partnership with Dr. Michalea King from the University of Washington and Dr. Emma MacKie from the University of Florida, were published in the peer-reviewed journal Nature Geoscience.

This Briefing is reprinted with the author’s permission. Please find the original here.