As the third anniversary of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine approaches, Finland’s Speaker of Parliament Jussi Halla-aho told Kyiv Post that NATO membership is why Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia have recently stayed out of Russia’s revanchist crosshairs. 

“The only reason they invaded Ukraine and not the Baltic countries is because the Baltic countries are members of NATO and Ukraine is not or was not,” the speaker said.

“This is a mistake that we must not repeat in the future when we think about the security guarantees and arrangements with Ukraine.”

Right now, Finland doesn’t see an immediate threat to its own territory.

“There are military bases and garrisons on the other side of the border, but those have been more or less emptied and the equipment and the troops have been transferred to Ukraine. So we are not afraid of an immediate military action by the Russians” Halla-aho said.

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But Russia is likely to threaten Finland in the future, Halla-aho told Kyiv Post, in a conversation in his office in Finland’s parliament.

“In the long term, yes, we clearly understand that Russia is a danger, a military and non-military danger to all its neighbours – including Finland.”

Finland has its own defense industry, and its boosting defense spending, which now stands at 2.4% of gross domestic product (GDP) – higher than the recommended NATO level of 2%.

Halla-aho said that Finland is make “very big and expensive investments in the Air Force and in the Navy.”

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Halla-aho said Finland is closely monitoring how Russia conducts its Ukraine invasion and this is giving it insights – enabling Finland to incorporate these lessons into its own defense plan.

“We have a very big budget deficit and we are trying to cut spending everywhere, but because of what is happening in Europe today, the defense budget is off-limits. There is a general agreement that there will not be cuts in that sector. We need to spend more on defense – even when we are spending less on everything else,” Halla-aho said.

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