Thursday, Feb. 17, 2022
Kremlin writes to Biden administration accusing it of ignoring its legitimate demands on security and threatens “a military-technical” response, but insists no plans for invasion of Ukraine – Kommersant.ru
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US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the UN security council there was no evidence Moscow was pulling out any troops, believing Russia was preparing to invade – US Mission to the UN
Russian Ministry of Defense published video of units “withdrawing” from Crimea, Kursk and Bryansk on the “completion of exercises” and returning to their home bases in Dagestan and Chechnya – Interfax.ru
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin says Russia is stocking up on blood supplies and continues to move forces closer to the Ukrainian border at NATO HQ press conference – New Voice of Ukraine
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov says “Russian troops will not stay on the territory of Belarus… These are allied military exercises and, naturally, the troops will return to their permanent bases after these drills are over” – CBS news
Friday, Feb. 18, 2022
In a televised address President Joe Biden says he believes Russia will invade Ukraine within the next few days but says there is still time for diplomacy to prevent it – BBC
Michael Carpenter, US ambassador to the OSCE, told an OSCE meeting that Russian now has up to 190,000 troops on Ukraine’s borders almost double from January – Reuters
Zelensky Congratulates Germany’s Merz on Election Win
The Deputy US ambassador to Moscow, Bartle Gorman, was expelled by Russia in a “tit for tat” response to the expulsion of their diplomat from Washington – Russian Foreign Ministry
58th Munich Security Conference (MSC) assembles in the Hotel Bayerischer Hof.
OSCE reported more than 600 ceasefire violations (compared with the previous day’s 150) over the previous 24 hours in Donetsk and Luhansk regions – OSCE Daily Report 38/2022
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and her French counterpart Jean-Yves Le Drian release a joint statement warning of Russian “false flags” as a pretext to invade Ukraine – X
Saturday, Feb. 19, 2022
Russian President Vladimir Putin oversees military exercises involving Russian “strategic forces” which included the launch of ballistic and cruise missiles – Deutsche Welle
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg warns the Munich Security Conference that the size of the Russian forces assembled on the Ukrainian border gives Moscow the capacity to invade without warning at any time – Deutsche Welle
New Maxar satellite images showed large deployments of Russian aircraft and helicopters in Belarus and a gathering of tanks and armored personnel carriers close to the Ukraine border – reposted on X by Christopher Miller (FT correspondent) here and here
Sunday, Feb. 20, 2022
Moscow announces extension of military exercises by 30,000 Russian troops in Belarus which US Secretary of State Antony Blinken says is following its “playbook” for an invasion of Ukraine – New York Post
French President Emmanuel Macron speaks to Putin and announces that they are working toward a ceasefire agreement in order to avert a war with Ukraine – French Embassy to Washington
US media says intelligence sources claim that Russian troops amassed on the Ukrainian border have received secret orders to prepare for an invasion and units were maneuvering to “starting positions” – CBS “Face the Nation”
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov says Russian President Vladimir Putin will convene an extraordinary meeting of the Russian Security Council on Monday, Feb. 21: “This will be a big Security Council” – Oliver Carroll (Economist) on X
Monday, Feb. 21, 2022
The leaders of the self-proclaimed Luhansk and Donetsk people’s republics, for which Russia has issued passports to hundreds of thousands of residents, formally ask the Kremlin to recognize their independence from Ukraine – pravda-com.ua
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov confirms during the meeting of the Russian Security Council that he will meet US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in Geneva on Feb 24 – eurointegration.com.ua
Austrian Chancellor Karl Negammer says EU sanctions package if Russia recognizes Ukrainian breakaway regions or carries out an invasion will include Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline – Reuters
Putin addresses the nation saying Ukraine is “an artificial creation of Soviet Union founder Vladimir Lenin” that has become a “US puppet regime rife with corruption” – CNN International
Kyiv categorizes Russian claims to have killed five Ukrainian soldiers after they crossed into Russia’s Rostov region as “fake” news – Reuters
Tuesday, Feb. 22, 2022
UN security council holds emergency session (night of Feb. 21 NY time) on Ukraine which Russia, as council chair, called to be a closed-door session despite demands for a public meeting by the US, UK, France, Ireland, Norway and others. Russia’s UN ambassador Vasily Nebenzya called on Western nations to “come to their senses, put aside their emotions and not make the situation worse” – United Nations news
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky calls for peace and describes Russia’s actions in the region as a violation of Ukraine’s integrity and sovereignty calling for clear and effective steps of support from the UN, NATO and OSCE – on X by Christopher Miller (FT correspondent) here.
Anti-war protesters gather at the Russian Embassies in Berlin and Kyiv protesting Putin’s decision to send troops into separatist regions in Ukraine – Firstpost India
An unnamed senior Biden administration official says “We’ll continue to pursue diplomacy until the tanks roll. We are under no illusions about what is likely to come next” – Los Angeles Times
Wednesday, Feb. 23 – the eve of war
Maxar satellite images show more deployments of military vehicles and troop tents in southern Belarus as well as field hospitals in western Russia close to the Ukraine border – Jack Detsch Politico defense correspondent on X here
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba says the future of the world order is “being decided in Ukraine,” adding if the West fails Ukraine, Putin’s next target will be the countries on NATO’s eastern flank – CNN
Blinken says the invasion of Ukraine has been Putin’s “plan all along,” saying he had “manufactured a crisis” intending “to control Ukraine and its people, to destroy Ukraine’s democracy, and reclaim Ukraine as a part of Russia – C-Span
Ukraine prepares for war: It announces the mobilization of military reserves between the ages of 18 and 60 years; urges all citizens to leave Russia immediately, closes its airspace to civilian aircraft – The Hill and Reuters
Thursday, Feb. 24 – the full-scale invasion begins
Putin declares a “special military operation” in a televised speech intended to support of the leaders of the “Luhansk and Donetsk people’s republics.” He says he does not plan to occupy Ukraine but says Moscow’s response will be “instant” if anyone tries to stop this.
At 3:40 a.m. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began and every Ukrainian was woken with the words none had ever expected to hear: “Wake up, the war has begun.”
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