The first part of our analysis of the challenges preventing the holding of elections in Ukraine during the ongoing war resulting from Russia’s full-scale invasion can be read here. The high intensity of hostilities, constant missile strikes, and displacement of its population makes the updating of voter registrations difficult, if not impossible.
Apart from anything else Ukrainian law explicitly prohibits elections during periods of martial law, a condition which, incidentally, was written into the country’s constitution in 2015, under the previous president, Petro Poroshenko. Lifting the ban during war time to enable voting to take place would be a risk, could weaken Ukraine’s defense against Russia and limit the country’s ability to use military means.
Yulia Tymoshenko, leader of the Batkivshchyna political party and former Prime Minister, who has frequently pointed out that such a decision lies with the Ukrainian people, wrote on Facebook:
“Only Ukrainians have the right to decide when and under what conditions they should change their government. Today, there are no such conditions! Elections during wartime are impossible and immoral because our military will not be able to participate in them. And without them, elections will never be legitimate.”
Ukraine’s one million strong army along with the almost half a million other professionals, including police officers, emergency responders, and others - who represent the most motivated and active part of the country’s 30-million population – ability to vote under current conditions is similarly hamstrung.
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Despite these challenges, both Russia, which has been promoting the narrative of Zelensky’s “illegitimacy” for not calling for an election on the “due date” in May 2024, and the new US administration, which has aligned with Moscow on this and other issues continue to press for elections to be held.
Trump and Putin’s Interest
The Russian claim about the “illegitimacy” of Ukraine’s government is nothing new. Despite the fact that, in most analysts’ view, Russia has not held “free and fair” elections since 2012 when President Vladimir Putin was elected for a second time. Ever since the Euromaidan revolution ousted pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych in 2014 Russia has systematically pushed the narrative that a “coup” installed a criminal “junta.”
Political scientist and analyst Rostyslav Balaban said, “This claim is absurd because the 2014 government was recognized by all of Ukraine’s international partners. Moreover, since then, we have held two democratic presidential elections, two parliamentary elections, and several local elections. All of them were recognized as democratic by international observers, including the Trump [first] administration in 2019.”
“It is significant that over the past 25 years, Ukraine has had five different presidents, meaning that every five years, the people democratically elect a new leader—often from the opposition.”
Balaban believes Putin is not truly interested in the elections themselves - since they would legitimize a re-elected Zelensky or his successor - but rather in the instability that elections during wartime could bring.
“The Russians are counting on using the brief period of interregnum to destabilize the country - possibly launching a major offensive or fostering a ‘dual power’ scenario by supporting an alternative government, such as what happened in 1917, in an attempt to split Ukraine. For them, elections are an opportunity to ‘shake things up’,” he said.
The motivation for Trump is different. Kyiv Post’s sources doubt that the idea of elections was imposed on him by Putin but is the hope of securing a more “compliant” Ukrainian government.
Political analyst Vitaly Kulik says, “This is a myth, but for some reason, both in Moscow and, perhaps, in Washington, there is a belief that a new government would be more agreeable to negotiations and sign whatever is needed.”
“Moscow is convinced that the only obstacle to Ukraine’s surrender is Zelensky, and that everyone else is ready to capitulate. But this is far from true. Ukraine has no openly pro-Russian political figures of any significance, nor is there a widespread demand for peace at any cost, despite some war fatigue.”
“Yes, a new government might be less radical and more flexible, but it will still align with the West. Given Ukraine’s current situation, any Ukrainian government will have limited options.”
However, from a political perspective, Balaban argues that elections could be useful to Trump simply as a process - especially if Russia promises a temporary ceasefire during any voting period.
“Putin might even agree to a short-term truce for a few months, and Trump could present this as his victory - claiming he managed to stop the war. The fact that hostilities would resume with even greater intensity later on, because Russia’s ambitions remain unchanged, would not be a concern for many,” says Balaban.
Preparation for a ballot
There is no resistance to the holding of elections once the war is over, security is ensured and all Ukrainians can participate, after thorough preparation.
“Ukrainians love to vote, they love to express their opinions, and there is always a demand for political renewal. This is natural, but it is important to create the right conditions for it,” political observer Volodymyr Fesenko says.
Initial steps are currently focused on identifying feasible and suitable locations for polling stations. For example, in Kyiv, school principals and teachers have been instructed to prepare school buildings to serve as polling stations. Schools, as in many countries, are traditionally used for this purpose in Ukraine due to their convenient locations and spacious halls.
“It’s not just about preparing polling stations but also about ensuring election security. We are receiving reports that security services responsible for protecting polling stations are already involved in preparatory work,” a source within the leadership of a political party told us.
Political parties, following internal directives, have intensified their regional operations.
“Everyone is preparing, but no one knows for what exactly. Right now, we’re conducting an audit - assessing our presence in different areas, the number of active members, and our organizational structure. This is essentially preliminary groundwork,” a senior party official from Chernihiv said.
Come the peace Ukraine is set to hold multiple elections simultaneously - parliamentary, presidential, and local authorities - all scheduled for the fall of 2025.
Three key issues have been identified: The inclusion of pro-Russian electorate and politicians, the future of Zelensky and his ruling “Servant of the People” party and the influence of the military on the process.
Pro-Russian elements
This remains one of the most complex issues. On the one hand, Ukraine has been understandably actively neutralizing pro-Russian groups who have collaborated with Moscow during martial law. Kulik argues that these efforts need to intensify before the elections, as many figures from the Yanukovych era have yet to face legal consequences.
“Individuals convicted of high treason who fled to an aggressor country [Russia or Belarus] or its allies should not return to politics. Many such figures exist - second-tier politicians from the Yanukovych era - and their criminal cases must be resolved before the elections,” Kulik says.
Analysts believe the pro-Russian electorate has significantly diminished. In 2019, it accounted for as much as 15% of voters, split between Zelensky and the now-banned pro-Russian party OPZh. However, many of these voters were based in the south and east, areas that are now either occupied or heavily affected by the war.
“A portion of these voters, who might be described as ‘neutral’ or ‘war-weary,’ have shifted toward Yulia Tymoshenko’s party, which is centrist and pro-Ukrainian with a leftist stance on economic issues. The remaining pro-peace voters will be split among multiple candidates,” an analyst close to the President’s Office told us.
Among the pro-peace candidates are Oleksiy Arestovych, Gennady Druzenko, and Yuriy Boyko. However, while they currently appear to be allies on social media, they will inevitably compete against each other once elections start. Their combined support is estimated at around 8% of voters, while the threshold for parliamentary entry is 5%.
Servant of the People and Zelensky
The biggest question is the future of the presidential Servant of the People party. In the 2019 elections, the party secured 254 out of 450 seats, forming Ukraine’s first-ever single-party majority government. However, analysts believe this scenario will not be repeated. Instead, there are increasing signs that the party will fracture into multiple political groups.
“I expect more than one or even two successor parties to Servant of the People. These will be distinct projects, some of which will incorporate military elements. Zelensky’s faction will certainly distance itself from the most controversial figures within the current parliamentary majority,” Kulik predicts.
To bolster their ranks, parties will likely seek to recruit political veterans. One well-known military figure, Yehor Firsov - a former MP from Kyiv mayor Klitschko’s party who has been actively serving on the front lines in Donbas - revealed that he has already received multiple offers from different political groups to join them. He has declined so far. However, this does not rule out the possibility of the military forming its own independent party.
The Military and Zaluzhny
General Valerii Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s former commander in chief and current ambassador to the UK, remains the most popular potential alternative presidential candidate.
“If Zaluzhny decides to run, he will defeat any opponent in the second round - possibly even in the first,” Kulik says.
However, polling data from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology suggests that while Zaluzhny leads the race, his advantage is not overwhelming. Approximately 26% of Ukrainians say they would vote for him, compared to 16% for Zelensky. Meanwhile, former President Petro Poroshenko holds around 6%, and all other candidates have less than 4% support.
Zaluzhny has not made any direct statements about his candidacy, saying that ending the war should be the priority.
“While Zaluzhny has not officially declared his intentions, his public appearances and speeches carry clear political undertones. If he does not run, Zelensky stands a strong chance of reelection, as he retains a solid electoral base,” Kulik says.
One major challenge for Zaluzhny is the absence of a formal political party behind him. If a new “military party” were to be established, it would require significant media and organizational support.
“This will be particularly difficult if the election campaign period is shortened to 60 or even 45 days. Under such constraints, achieving a media breakthrough will be challenging. However, military figures could still perform well in local elections or enter parliament through existing parties, later forming a cross-party bloc within the Verkhovna Rada,” a senior political strategist told Kyiv Post.
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