World Briefing: February 21, 2025

The U.S. is opposing calling Russia the aggressor in a G7 statement marking the third anniversary of Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine. It’s also refusing to co-sponsor a draft U.N. resolution that backs Ukraine’s territorial integrity and again demands Russia withdraw its troops, diplomatic sources told Reuters. The U.S. refusal to agree to language that has been regularly used by the U.N. and G7 since February 2022 comes amid a widening rift between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and U.S. President Donald Trump. The FT reported that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s participation in the G7 summit has not yet been agreed, and Italian PM Giorgia Meloni’s office announced she not participate. Also seen as a snub was the abrupt cancellation by the US side of a planned news conference in Kyiv yesterday with Donald Trump’s Ukraine envoy, Gen. Keith Kellogg and Zelensky. Russia’s aggression was mentioned five times in the G7 leaders’ statement last year. The Trump Administration’s insistence on softening the language reflects a broader shift in U.S. policy to describe the war as “the Ukraine conflict, two sources cited by the FT said.

At the U.N. countries can decide to co-sponsor a resolution up until a vote. The 193-member General Assembly is due to vote on Monday, diplomats said. General Assembly resolutions are not binding but carry political weight, reflecting a global view on the war. “In previous years, the United States has consistently co-sponsored such resolutions in support of a just peace in Ukraine,” one of the sources, who like the others requested anonymity to discuss sensitive matters, said on Thursday. The first diplomatic source told Reuters that the resolution was being sponsored by more than 50 countries, declining to identify them. A second diplomatic source who also requested anonymity said: “For now, the situation is they (the U.S.) won’t sign it.” Efforts are ongoing to seek support from other countries instead, including the Global South, the source added - Reuters

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed on Friday morning that Hamas would “pay full price” after it was confirmed that one of the slain hostage bodies, returned by the terror group, was not that of Shiri Bibas, as agreed to in the hostage-ceasefire deal. “Hamas will pay the full price for this cruel and wicked violation of the agreement,” Netanyahu said. Netanyahu also said that the body of a Gazan woman was instead put in Shiri’s coffin. “Not only did Hamas kidnap the father, Yarden Bibas, the young mother, Shiri, and their two small babies, [Ariel and Kfir], in an unspeakably evil manner, they did not return Shiri to her little children, her little angels, and instead put the body of a Gazan woman in a coffin,” he stated. Earlier on Friday morning, the IDF confirmed that two of the hostage bodies, among the four returned on Thursday, belonged to Ariel and Kfir Bibas. The IDF said that forensic officials carried out several tests on the anonymous woman’s body to ensure the result’s accuracy and that the body was received in “a condition in which it could be clearly verified it does not belong to Shiri Bibas.” - Jerusalem Post

Three empty buses have exploded on the southern edge of Tel Aviv in what Israeli police say is a “suspected terror attack”. It happened in parking lots in the city of Bat Yam on Thursday night. There were no casualties. Devices on two other buses failed to explode, police said. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered the Israeli military to carry out “an intensive operation against centres of terrorism” in the occupied West Bank in response.

Saudi Arabia will host “an informal brotherly gathering” of Gulf leaders on Friday, the country’s state-run media said, reportedly to devise a reconstruction plan for Gaza that counters US President Donald Trump’s plan to “take over” the territory. The summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia’s capital, will include leaders from the Gulf Cooperation Council as well as Egypt and Jordan. A source close to the Saudi government told the AFP news agency that the leaders were set to discuss “a version of the Egyptian plan.” Egypt has staunchly opposed Trump’s plan to expel some 2 million Palestinians from Gaza, considering it a violation of Palestinian sovereignty.

There has been another suspected cable break in the Baltic Sea, the police and the Coast Guard confirm to SVT Nyheter. This is the third time in a short period that the same cable has been damaged, according to the company that owns the cable. A preliminary investigation has been initiated by the Police Authority, with the Coast Guard assisting. It is said to have occurred in the Swedish economic zone off Gotland, and is a cable that runs between Finland and Germany

The Trump administration has given Ukraine an “improved” draft for a minerals agreement between the countries after President Volodymyr Zelensky infuriated President Trump by rejecting his initial offer, a Ukrainian official, a U.S. official and three sources with knowledge tell Axios. Sources on both sides now say a deal is looking more likely. A source with knowledge said several of Zelensky’s aides have encouraged him to sign the updated proposal to avoid a further clash with Trump and allow the U.S. president to justify U.S. support for Ukraine. “There was significant improvement in the recent draft and it is in conformity with Ukrainian law,” the source said. National security adviser Mike Waltz told reporters Thursday that Zelensky needed to “come back to the table” on the minerals issue.

Polls indicate that Germany’s upcoming vote is likely to shift the country to the right. Despite voter concerns about a sluggish economy, the election has been dominated by Germany’s migration policies, crime, the war in Ukraine and outside interference. Political parties are into the last leg of campaigning with not much more time before Sunday to change the mind of voters. Currently right-wing opposition parties have been leading in the polls with the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU)and Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), hovering around 30% support and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AFD) trailing them with around 20%.Incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) is polling in third place with 15%, while their coalition partners,  the Green Party is coming in fourth with just over 13% - DW

Chinese warships have undertaken an apparent live-fire drill in the seas between Australia and New Zealand, diverting commercial flights in the skies above. The Chinese navy notified the Australian defence department shortly before the drill on Friday. Three People’s Liberation Army-Navy vessels – the Jiangkai-class frigate Hengyang, the Renhai-class cruiser Zunyi and the Fuchi-class replenishment vessel Weishanhu – were now about 340 nautical miles off Eden, on the New South Wales south coast, in international waters. The drill was conducted in international waters and in accordance with international law. It is understood at least three commercial flights diverted their course.The three Chinese naval ships – known as Taskgroup 107 – advised Australia early on Friday of plans to conduct a live-fire exercise - Guardian.

Russia may test NATO’s Article 5 response with localized war in Estonia, says a Ukrainian officer. A veteran of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Major Reserve of the National Guard of Ukraine, Oleksiy Hetman, said should Ukrainians fail to sustain the defense, Russia may attempt to attack a NATO country. There were calculations that the Russians might conduct a local war in about six months. Most likely, it will be a Baltic country. It could be Estonia, particularly Narva. ‘Little green men’ could enter there. In this way, Russia will test NATO’s Article 5 response,” Hetman told Ukraine’s Espreso TV

Separately, Italy is calling for Estonia’s catchy pick for the Eurovision competition to be scrapped due to lyrics poking fun at Italian stereotypes of being coffee-drinking, spaghetti-eating mafiosi. Espresso Macchiato, by the rapper Tommy Cash, is sung in a blend of broken English and Italian and depicts a life of sweet indulgence. “Ciao bella, I’m Tomaso, addicted to tobacco. Mi like mi coffè very importante,” the first verse begins. He goes on to sing: “Mi money numeroso, I work around the clocko. That’s why I’m sweating like a mafioso,” and: “Life is like spaghetti, it’s hard until you make it.” Cash won the Eesti Laul, Estonia’s Eurovision selection process, on Saturday and will represent the country in the contest in Basel in May – unless Italy gets its way. Codacons, a consumer association, has lodged an appeal to the European Broadcasting Union questioning whether “it’s appropriate to allow a song that offends a country and an entire community” to be part of the competition “Notwithstanding the freedom of artistic expression that must characterise events such as Eurovision, we cannot help but raise doubts about the inclusion of a song that is offensive to a plurality of individuals in a competition followed by audiences all over the world,” Codacons said in a statement. “Indignation has been expressed by numerous citizens [over a song] whose lyrics contain stereotypes about Italy and Italians – the usual cliches of coffee and spaghetti, but above all the mafia and the ostentation of luxury, which conveys a message of a population tied to organised crime.” - Guardian

The US must do more to keep Chinese citizens from accessing its scientific research, including barring them from the country’s national laboratories, lawmakers and experts warned on Thursday, in the latest sign of intensifying government scrutiny of America’s research and development systems. “There’s been literally a whole generation of successful efforts by Communist China on stealing stuff,” said Paul Dabbar, CEO of California-based Bohr Quantum Technology and Donald Trump’s former Department of Energy undersecretary for science. Testifying at a hearing convened by the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, Dabbar recommended a default “ban [on] Chinese nationals at the national labs” with the department able to grant waivers. The Department of Energy oversees 17 national labs that have played a critical role in advancing technological research in everything from nuclear weapons to clean energy and artificial intelligence. - SCMP

A federal district court judge in Washington denied a request by unions to block the Trump administration’s effort to drastically reduce the size of the federal work force. Even as the judge allowed the Trump administration to move forward with its downsizing efforts, he signaled significant concern in his ruling. The cuts are swift and massive. The I.R.S. began laying off more than 6,000 employees. The C.I.A. is moving to dismiss an unspecified number of officers working on recruiting and diversity issues, according to former officials, in what could be one of the largest mass firings in the agency’s history. The Transportation Security Administration fired 243 probationary employees. Four agencies were ordered to reduce their work and personnel to the minimum required by law. And an arm of the Housing and Urban Development Department that helps rebuild homes after disasters is set to cut more than 80 percent of its staff. - NYT

Florida officials are holding off updating the state’s population projections because of uncertainties about how the immigration policies of President Donald Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis are going to impact growth. Members of Florida’s Demographic Estimating Conference met earlier this month to adopt a new population forecast. But they decided not to make any updates to their model because of “emerging and evolving changes” to federal and state immigration policies. Conference members expect that both federal and state immigration policies will “exert downward pressure” on the population projections for Florida, the third most-populous state in the United States, the conference said in an executive summary. Florida has a current population of more than 23 million residents. More than a fifth of Florida residents were born outside the United States - AP

Widespread travel disruption is already hitting Belgium this morning as a 9-day train strike begins. A nationwide railway strike officially starts today (Friday 21 February) at 10pm, running until 10pm on 2 March. To add to travellers’ woes, airport workers will continue striking on the 13th of every month until further notice, and travel across Belgium is expected to be impacted by more strikes and mass protests that could last well into springtime - Euronews

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