German Elections: Christian Democrats CDU/CSU Win, Pro-Russian Party AfD Comes Second

On Sunday, Feb. 23, the German people voted (83,5% turnout) in the federal elections.. The Union of Christian Democrats CDU/CSU won the elections with 28.5% of the votes. The leader of the Union, Friedrich Merz, is likely to become the new Chancellor of Germany. 

The center right party promises its voters a stricter migration policy and lower taxes. The Pro-Russian radical right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) gained 20.8% of the votes, a huge victory compared to results in 2021 when the AfD had 10.1% of the votes. 

The growth of the AfD can be attributed to its anti-immigration stance and its anti-establishment tone of voice. During the campaign Elon Musk promoted on his social media platform X the party: “Only AfD can save Germany,” he claimed.

The current Chancellor Scholz and his social democratic party SPD came in third place with 16.4% of the votes. This disappointing result was expected. 

The progressive left wing Greens, a former coalition partner of the SPD, got 11.6% of the votes. The liberal Free Democratic Party, the other member of the coalition, and the pro-Russian left-wing conservative Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) did not reach the electoral threshold of 5%. The radical left party Die Linke, which opposes supplying arms to Ukraine, received 8.7% of the votes and re-enters parliament.

Coalition

When the dust has settled, a coalition needs to be formed. The largest party Union with its leader Friedrich Merz wants to have a quick formation, also because of his impression “that Russia and America are finding common ground – over the heads of Ukraine and thus also over the heads of Europe.” 

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In a big election debate national television leaders Merz (CDU), Scholz (SPD) and Habeck (Greens) ruled out the option of governing with the pro-Russian AfD. Habeck and Merz also attacked AfD during this debate on its pro-Russian stance. 

In a debate between Merz and the leader of social democrats Scholz, held last Wednesday, it became clear that the most obvious coalition partners for the CDU/CSU will be the SPD or the Greens. A two party coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD seems most likely, those parties have together a small majority in parliament. It might be that a three party coalition will be formed together with the Greens.

Impact on support for Ukraine

Germany is the second biggest contributor to the Ukrainian cause with more than €44 billion. A new coalition led by the Christian Democratic Union is positive for Ukraine, because the party and its leader Merz are supportive of Ukraine. Furthermore, Scholz (SPD) and Habeck (Greens) stated on the election night that supporting Ukraine is important. Merz is considering providing Ukraine with Taurus missiles, something the current chancellor Scholz refused to do. The struggling economy and the rise of pro-Russian parties pose significant challenges for Merz, yet his recent speeches, alongside those of his potential coalition partners, show determination to support Ukraine.