Ukraine’s national military leadership headed by President Volodymyr Zelensky, on Sunday projected confidence and even cautious notes of optimism about the future direction of their country’s fight against Russia’s invasion, contradicting recent White House claims their country faces imminent defeat by Moscow.
Zelensky and members of the Ukrainian senior national security team made the comments at the conference “Ukraine. Year 2025” in the capital, Kyiv.
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Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s national military intelligence agency, HUR, said that his group’s collection assets in and outside Russia had strong evidence that Russian arms production during 2025 has flatlined and is likely to contract, because of parts and labor shortages.
Russian arms factories probably will manage manufacturing growth in glide bombs and drones, but the overall trend of Kremlin capacity to deliver weapons to its military is downward, Budanov said.
Russia’s government plans in 2025 to induct into military service 100,000 men less than in 2024, Budanov said. Russian combat units already are chronically short of soldiers and the cut will worsen the Kremlin’s ability to deliver troop replacements to the front, he said.
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Western Leaders Plan to Spend Billions for Ukraine’s Defense
Vasyl Malyuk, head of Ukraine’s national security service, the SBU, said that Russia’s energy industry is losing capacity and that, since spring 2024, Russia ceased exporting gasoline in a bid to suppress price rises at the pump.
Falling Russian energy production capacity due to equipment shortages caused by Western sanctions, and dozens of strikes by long-range Ukrainian drones targeting Russian oil refineries and fuel storage sites, cost the Russian economy $11 billion in lost income, and the losses are likely to accelerate, Malyuk said.
Budanov said Russian shell production was only able to produce about half of all Russian army needs. North Korean deliveries are filling that gap, but Pyonyang’s ammunition reserves are limited, he said.
Oleh Ivashchenko, head of Ukraine’s national foreign intelligence service the SVR, said that Russian forces were nearing exhaustion due to heavy losses, particularly in men and battlefield heavy weapons like tanks and artillery.
“Russia needs a ceasefire to respite in order to restore the economy, accumulate supplies, and prepare the army,” Ivashchenko said.
“Today we understand what is happening inside the Russian Federation, what plans and processes there are. Plans for Ukraine, plans for other states. We have studied and continue to study the strengths and weaknesses of the enemy. We are aware of long-term plans, we are aware of these plans at least until 2030,” Ivashchenko said.
Ukrainian army commander-in-chief General Oleksandr Syrsky said that Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign into Russia would intensify and hit deeper into Russia in 2025. The combat capacity of Ukraine’s ground forces is growing, but Russia is far from defeated, he said.
“Difficult times and new challenges await us ahead. But we have a combat-ready army that will continue the fight,” Syrsky said. “The enemy’s objective is unchanged – the capture of all of Ukraine.”
Ukraine’s transition from a marginal producer to, probably, the world’s most prolific drone manufacturing nation, was held up by officials as a key success. Defense Minister Ruslan Umerov said 96% of all drones fielded by the Ukrainian military are domestically manufactured. Syrsky said during 2024, Ukrainian drone producers delivered more than 1.3 million robot aircraft to the armed forces. About 85% of all Russian casualties and vehicle kills on the battlefield are scored by Ukrainian drones, Malyuk said.
Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said that in 2024, Ukrainian production of small arms ammunition, mortar rounds, shells, and artillery rockets had increased six-fold. Volumes will increase and domestic war manufacturing will help give Ukraine victory over Russia, he said.
Minister of the Economy Yulia Svyrydenko said that Ukraine’s wartime economy, following a 30% contraction upon Russia’s second invasion in February 2022, grew 5% in 2023, 3.6% in 2024, and in 2024, her ministry expects continued growth. Foreign investment in Ukrainian business is rising with companies registered in the EU bringing the most capital, she said.
Major foreign direct investment is not likely as long as the war is in progress, she said. A ceasefire without iron-clad security guarantees would not bring more investment into the country, because unless business was convinced any possible future Russian attack was deterred, it would not risk operations in Ukraine, she said.
During a question-and-answer session with reporters at the end of the presentation, Zelensky said that media claims about Ukraine’s alleged near-total dependence on American assistance were inaccurate, and that, in fact, Ukraine’s war effort is roughly equally supported by the national economy, allied countries, and the US.
The American contribution is significant but by no means dominant, Zelensky said.
“This war [so far has cost] $320 billion. $120 billion - Ukraine, $100 billion – Europe and other partners, $100 billion - the USA. Not $500, not $300, and not $700,” he said.
US officials, led by Zelensky’s American counterpart, Donald J. Trump, in past weeks had claimed American support to Ukraine was effectively Kyiv’s only means of sustaining warfighting capacity and that as much as one-third of the entire US defense budget had been sent to and lost in Ukraine. The figure most recently claimed by Trump was $350 billion.
Independent fact-checks, among them, fact-checks by Kyiv Post, have generally confirmed the numbers advanced by Zelensky, and found no credible support for the figures put forward by Trump.
In early February the Trump administration kicked off a foreign policy campaign to bring fighting between Russia and Ukraine to an end. White House officials have called for Ukraine to accept substantial concessions close to Russian war aims, while refusing in public to name concessions that should be made by the Kremlin. Trump and subordinates have said a quick agreement is a US priority.
Kyiv will not accept peace terms dictated by the US or anyone else, and Ukraine is able to fight on if necessary, Zelensky said.“Deciding on Ukraine without us is impossible. We will not recognize any agreements made in that format,” he said. “It is impossible to end the war this week.”
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