More Ukrainian Refugees Less Willing to Return, As Share of Ukrainian Men Abroad Reached Almost 30%

0.3 million more Ukrainians left the country in 2024 due to war, comprising the total number of 5.2 million refugees remaining outside Ukraine as of November 2024.

The longer the war lasts, the more Ukrainians settle down living abroad, according to the Ukrainian Centre for Economic Strategy (CES) research. 

53% of them express unwillingness to return to Ukraine – the share decreased by 6% during the timeframe of the research (January-November 2024). 

If between 1.7 million and 2.7 million Ukrainians do not return, Ukraine’s economy could lose between 5.1% and 7.8% of its GDP, the report says.

Over the past year, more Ukrainians have decided not to return home as Russiaʼs missile attacks intensified which led to lack of electricity and deterioration of the economy and living conditions.

The economic situation of Ukrainians abroad also has improved and incomes have reached pre-war levels. Since January 2024, the share of people who could afford only food has decreased by 7.5%.

Most Ukrainians left in the first weeks of the war, reaching a peak in March 2022, when 2.5 million people fled the country. A big part of refugees returned between May and September 2022, the CES report says.

However, in autumn 2022 – winter 2023, the number of Ukrainians leaving the country increased again due to Russian attacks on the energy infrastructure. In 2023, Ukrainians returned more frequently in spring and summer but many left again as winter approached.

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In 2024, the outflow of Ukrainians continued as Russia intensified missile strikes and energy problems worsened.

Among those who left Ukraine due to the war, the majority are women aged 35-44, more than half of whom took their children with them.

At the same time, adult men make up 27% of the refugees. Their share has increased by 9% compared to January 2024, when it was 18%. In Europe, the share of men among refugees increased from 37% to 39% over January-November 2024. 

Which countries host the most Ukrainian refugees?

Among European countries, Germany and Poland have taken in the most Ukrainian refugees. Over 1.2 million Ukrainians relocated to Germany, while nearly 1 million are in Poland, the report says.

By the end of 2024, around 4.2 million Ukrainians in the EU had temporary protection status. 

At the same time, some Ukrainians entered Europe through Russia and Belarus, fleeing from Eastern and Southern occupied territories in circumstances which made them unable to cross the border to reach Ukraine-controlled territory directly. They also cross the border in Estonia, reaching Europe or returning to Ukraine. 

Around 239,000 people left using Russia and Belarus, while another 1.3 million became refugees in Russia and Belarus.

Will Ukrainians return home after the war?

According to CES, under an optimistic scenario, 1.2 million people could return to Ukraine after the war. A moderate estimate suggests 2.3 million, while a pessimistic scenario projects up to 2.7 million returning.

After the war, between 290,000 and 532,000 men – who are currently unable to leave due to conscription rules – may move abroad, many seeking to reunite with families that are already living outside Ukraine.

According to the Institute of Demography and Social Research at the National Academy of Sciences, Ukraine’s population is likely to reach 28.9 million by 2041 and 25.2 million by 2051 from 42 million  as of Jan. 1, 2022,  before the full-scale Russian invasion Kyiv post previously wrote.

The strategy document also estimated Ukraine’s population to be 31 million in government-controlled territories and 35 million within the entirety of its internationally recognized 1991 borders. At present, Russia illegally occupies 26% of Ukrainian territories.

Daryna Marchak, Ukraine’s first deputy minister of social policy and one of the major contributors to the strategy, told Forbes Ukraine the key to returning Ukrainian refugees from abroad is ending the war and ensuring safety, then it is about creating a comfortable environment to raise children.