ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 2, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Recent Russian official statements in response to the proposed US-Ukraine mineral deal indicate that the Kremlin is trying to sabotage the deal through narratives targeting Ukrainian and American audiences. The Kremlin is claiming that this mineral deal does not benefit Ukraine while also claiming that Russia can make a better offer to the United States, indicating that Moscow sees the deal as harmful to its objectives.
• The Kremlin has a vested interest in preventing the United States and Ukraine from signing a mineral deal, as the deal will commit the United States to a long-term investment in Ukraine and Ukraine’s sovereignty.
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is attempting to exploit discussions between the United States and the EU about the possible deployment of European peacekeeping forces to Ukraine as part of a future peace settlement in order to reinvigorate the Kremlin’s demands for regime change in Ukraine.
• European leaders demonstrated their commitment to supporting Ukraine at a defense summit in London on March 2.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Velyka Novosilka.

Authors: Davit Gasparyan, Angelica Evans, Grace Mappes, Olivia Gibson, and Frederick W. Kagan with William Runkel.

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