As Ukraine’s Western backers slowly inch towards a “coalition of the willing” with a new UK-French-led peace plan, they still lack a strong voice to lead the effort and are reluctant to go it alone without the US.
Friday’s clash between US President Donald Trump and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky blew up the longstanding wartime Western alliance in support of Ukraine, alarmed Kyiv’s allies, and triggered a wave of publicly displayed support.
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Kaja Kallas, the EU’s chief diplomat, went the furthest in her messaging, saying “the free world needs a new leader,” and that it was up to Europeans to take up this challenge.
But Europe has gone weeks without concrete plans. Instead, its leaders held a flurry of subsequent meetings of varying sizes and constellations. Yet, it has suffered from a lack of leadership, with too many cooks but no clear voice leading the effort.
“I’ve asked every foreign minister I meet with, ‘Tell me your idea of how this turns out.’ Most don’t have a plan,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told ABC on Sunday.
For Rubio, supporting Ukraine’s fight for another year, as some have suggested, “doesn’t sound like a good plan” - certainly not one “the President is on board with”.
Two previous summits convened by French President Emmanuel Macron failed to produce concrete plans.
Kremlin Says Zelensky Needs to Be Forced to Make Peace
Sunday’s summit in London—which brought together leaders from 18 Western countries, including France, Germany, Denmark and Italy, as well as Canada, Turkey, NATO and the European Union—seems to have made at least the first progress in weeks.
A coalition without a clear leader
British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said “a number of countries” had expressed a desire to join a ‘coalition of the willing’ to offer Ukraine security guarantees if a ceasefire is reached.
Britain and France would take the lead in working with Ukraine to draw up a blueprint for a peace plan to present to US President Donald Trump.
“The UK is prepared to back this with boots on the ground and planes in the air together with others,” Starmer told reporters after the talks.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said she was ready to use her good relationship with Trump to act as a bridge-builder.
That would put the onus on three of Europe’s five heavyweights.
Germany, which under the previous Trump administration with then-chancellor Angela Merkel was at least seen as a leader compared to incumbent Olaf Scholz, is missing in action, at least until a new government is formed.
And while Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk was among the first to show support for Zelensky, Warsaw has not yet signaled that it will take the lead on any major initiative on Ukraine.
Germany, Spain and Poland are also among the European countries that remain hesitant when it comes to sending peacekeepers to Ukraine.
European Council President António Costa called Sunday’s consultations “useful and important” ahead of the EU summit on 6 March, where he said leaders should be “ready to take decisions”. It remains questionable whether all 27 EU member states will be able to bridge the internal divisions that are likely to emerge with Hungary and Slovakia.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Sunday she would present a “comprehensive plan” on defense at Thursday’s summit, but criticism has mounted as to why it is taking so long to draw up the blueprint, especially given the urgency.
At the same time, with the Trump administration threatening to cut off all military aid to Ukraine after the Trump-Zelensky spat, a key question is why Europe has not yet delivered all it promised Ukraine.
Ukrainian officials argue that fulfilling the pledges would at least bridge a temporary pause in American aid.
“Baby steps” away from US
Even after the traumatic episode in the White House,
Europeans seem reluctant to acknowledge the new transatlantic reality and, instead of moving forward without Trump, are wasting precious time on Ukraine by waiting for Washington.
Despite pledges of support for Ukraine, some European leaders have signaled to Kyiv that they would rather see them repair their ties with Washington than move on completely without the US.
“There was broad convergence on the importance of continuing to work closely with the US, namely in the context of NATO” and “strong agreement that future European contributions to additional security guarantees must be developed hand in hand with the US,” an EU official said after the talks.
Both Starmer and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte previously tried to persuade Zelenskyy to find a way to restore his relationship with the US administration, despite Trump making it clear that he did not want Ukraine to continue fighting.
Starmer told reporters that he had spoken to Trump before the London summit to coordinate his proposals. He also did not shelve plans to persuade Washington to provide US support for future European troops on the ground to secure a ceasefire.
Europe “must do the heavy lifting” but the “effort must have strong US backing,” Starmer said.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb said he was “quite convinced” that Sunday’s meeting in London would “give us the first baby steps” to ensure talks with the US are back on the table.
In a statement, Meloni called for an emergency meeting between the US, Europe and Ukraine “to talk frankly about how we intend to tackle today’s major challenges, starting with Ukraine, which together we have defended in recent years.”
See the original of this article by Alexandra Brzozowski for Euractiv here.
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