Ukrainian military intelligence has uncovered and disrupted Russia’s plans to launch large-scale offensive operations in the second half of 2024 and early 2025, Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of the Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), said.
Skibitsky said that Ukraine found out about Moscow’s intentions in time and took appropriate measures thanks to coordinated intelligence efforts, preventing widescale offensives that could have moved the frozen line of conflict in Russia’s favor, RBC-Ukraine reported on Monday.
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Russia was preparing to launch an offensive in at least two directions, according to intelligence reports, but the plans were never executed.
“We identified the enemy’s preparations and plans for offensive operations in at least two directions, which did not take place in late 2024 – early 2025,” Skibitsky said.
Currently, the biggest threat is concentrated in the Donetsk region, particularly in Pokrovsk, from where Russian forces could expand their offensive toward the Dnipropetrovsk region, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk, Skibitsky said.
The Russians may still attempt to carry out the planned offensive at a later stage, Skibitsky said.
“Just because Russia’s plans were exposed doesn’t mean they’ve abandoned them. They are regrouping, conducting preparations, and engaging in combat training to eventually execute their developed plans,” Skibitsky said.
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Hundreds of thousands of Russian troops deployed in Ukraine
According to Skibitsky, Russia currently has 620,000 troops engaged in the war against Ukraine, stationed in occupied territories and Kursk Oblast.
“More than 200,000 of these soldiers belong to assault units actively engaged in combat on the front lines,” he said.
As per Skibitsky, additionally, 35,000 Russian Guard troops are securing key facilities in occupied regions. If needed, they could be deployed as second-echelon forces to reinforce frontline operations.
Beyond ground forces, Russia’s logistical units, Black Sea Fleet personnel, and aviation forces are also involved in combat operations, even if they are not directly deployed to the battlefield.
Russia increases recruitment and offers big payouts
Despite suffering heavy losses, Russia has exceeded its recruitment targets, enlisting 107% of its projected force in January 2025 alone.
This suggests that Moscow has no significant issues replenishing its ranks. However, Skibitsky said that not all recruits are genuine volunteers.
In 2025, about 30% of Russia’s so-called ‘volunteers’ will be individuals under criminal investigation or serving suspended sentences, he said.
Previously, only 15% of recruits came from this category, but their numbers are now rising. Russia is increasingly using the so-called ‘special contingent’ – prisoners and those with no other options.
Russia also plans to recruit another 343,000 contract soldiers and is offering lucrative signing bonuses.
To incentivize service, the Kremlin offers high salaries. A recruit signing a contract can earn more than 2 million rubles, which equates to $20,000–$25,000, depending on the region.
“As a result, in 2024, the contract recruitment plan was not only fulfilled but exceeded by at least 10,000 soldiers,” Skibitsky told RBC-Ukraine.
The deputy head of the HUR said that a significant portion of the recruits is focused on replenishing combat losses.
In addition to restocking personnel, Russia is also expanding its military structure by forming new units and formations in the Moscow, Leningrad, Southern, and Central Military Districts. Brigades actively engaged in combat will be upgraded to full divisions, adding more strength to the front lines, he said.
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