Is Trump’s Ban on Intelligence Sharing Blindfolding Ukraine? Maybe Not

The ban on intelligence sharing that the administration of US President Donald Trump has put on the Ukrainian Armed Forces may weaken the country’s defensive capabilities to protect against Russian strikes, but alternatives exist, according to an analysis by Kyiv Post.

“The situation will become much more complicated,” officers in the Ukrainian air force told Kyiv Post, especially because the ban extends to allies (notably the United Kingdom) and even blocks them from transmitting US intelligence data to Ukraine.

Trump appears to be using the intel as leverage with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as they continue to negotiate a deal exchanging Ukraine’s mineral resources for continued American security support.

But military experts say that the intel cut may not be as critical a problem for Ukraine’s defenses as Trump thinks. 

Kyiv Post explores how serious the risks of the intelligence-sharing ban are for Ukraine and its military operations, and where Ukraine might compensate for the loss of American data with allied capabilities.

Satellite problems and strikes on Russian territory

The most significant issue for Ukraine caused by the intel stoppage is the lack of satellite coordinates for launching strikes deep into Russia.

“The biggest problem is detecting enemy anti-aircraft missile systems, which we have repeatedly hit before,” Aviation expert Valery Romanenko said. “Then, after their destruction, it becomes possible to strike actual targets in the rear. This was possible thanks to American satellites that detected electronic signal sources, thus clearly identifying the locations of command posts, headquarters, and anti-aircraft missile systems.” 

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According to Romanenko, another problem is the availability of precise coordinates for targeting Russian sites inside Russia – something only the US can provide.

“Perhaps the United States is the only NATO country that has highly accurate and detailed digital maps of Russia – in other words, where even the smallest object is visible by coordinates and in real time. Do other NATO countries have this capability? We don’t know. In principle, many NATO countries participated in the OpenSky project, which mapped the entire territory of Russia, but perhaps the best maps are in the United States. This not only results in a lack of clear targets for us but also means that many weapons dependent on the American coordinate system – such as Storm Shadow missiles – may face restrictions in use.”

Another issue is the inability to track what is happening inside Russian territory in real time. Anatoliy Tkachuk, a former adviser to the president of Ukraine and a captain in the Air Defense Forces who developed weapons control systems for fighter aircraft, explained the problem to Kyiv Post.

“This is a major advantage,” Tkachuk said. “The United States, thanks to a dense satellite network in geostationary orbit, could monitor events in Russia in real time – what moved where, what left a factory, what was deployed. Now, this will become much more difficult.”

Additionally, the shutdown of military internet access will prevent Ukraine from using HIMARS missiles beyond a range of 70 kilometers (44 miles) – precisely where the main Russian military logistics centers, warehouses, and headquarters are located.

“We will be somewhat restricted in our ability to effectively conduct combat operations, essentially tying our hands,” one missile forces officer told Kyiv Post, though he added that alternative capabilities exist and will be tested.

Limited ability to shoot down missiles targeting the energy sector 

Another challenge Ukraine will face is the cessation of intelligence on enemy missile launches and aircraft movements. 

Tkachuk said that, combined with well-known delays in arms supplies, which could lead to a shortage of Patriot missiles, this could seriously impact Ukraine’s ability to intercept ballistic missiles, which most often target civilian sites such as hotels, power stations, administrative buildings, and residential areas.

As per Tkachuk, “The Patriot system requires early notification of ballistic missile launches for effective operation, as it does not have a circular radar – its coverage angle is 90 degrees – meaning it must already be oriented in the right direction at the moment of launch. Receiving untimely or delayed information significantly reduces the effectiveness of the Patriot system.”

Another issue, in Tkachuk’s view, is delayed warnings of incoming cruise missiles. While they are slower, if they fly at low altitudes, Ukrainian air defense may detect them too late.

“It’s very simple – the earlier you see the target and understand its trajectory, the more effective your air defense will be. Unfortunately, Ukraine does not have over-the-horizon radars, and our existing radars operate at distances of up to 400 kilometers (249 miles). In reality, this range is shorter – we can’t place them directly at the front, and if they are positioned 100 kilometers (62 miles) from the front line, their effective coverage is only 300 kilometers (186 miles). Previously, we received intelligence from allies about missile courses and numbers when they were still 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) away from us.”

Is the situation as bad as it sounds? 

While the situation looks dire, it is not entirely hopeless for Ukraine. 

First, despite losing the ability to monitor events in Russia 24/7 using US satellites, Ukraine has several of its own – the so-called “Pritula satellites,” named after the volunteer who purchased one of them.

“They provide us with a few hours, maybe two, of monitoring Russian territory. This cannot replace American satellite data, of course, but it is better than nothing,” Romanenko said.

He also said that while Ukraine will no longer receive missile launch alerts from the US, there are nuances.

“We were already receiving limited intelligence on Shahed drone launches, as they happen frequently,” Romanenko said. “We will still detect ballistic missile launches, though with some delay, since they occur near the front line and quickly gain altitude. As for cruise missiles, we will at least have data on the takeoff and flight trajectories of Tu-95 bombers from Norway, which already monitors them.”

Regarding the potential for allied assistance, the issue remains uncertain. 

France has announced that it will share satellite intelligence, but it is unclear how effective the French satellite network is compared to the US system. 

According to Kyiv Post sources, the key advantage of the French network is that it operates independently of US systems (unlike the UK’s), allowing French partners to decide on intelligence-sharing without American restrictions.