ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 11, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• The United States and Ukraine agreed on March 11 to an immediate 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine contingent on Russia’s agreement, and the US reportedly restarted intelligence sharing and military aid.
• Ukraine’s allies and partners from Europe, Asia, and Oceania continue efforts to strengthen the Ukrainian military and back Ukraine with security guarantees – the most effective deterrent against future Russian aggression against Ukraine following a potential future peace agreement.
• Russian forces continue to make confirmed advances in Kursk Oblast and have likely begun attacking Sudzha.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a large-scale series of drone strikes against Russia on the night of March 10 to 11, largely targeting Moscow Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk and Robotyne and in Kursk Oblast.
• The Kremlin continues to expand social benefits for Russian soldiers who fought in Ukraine, including soldiers who have fought for the militias of the Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics (DNR and LNR) since 2014.

Authors: Angelica Evans, Nicole Wolkov, Olivia Gibson, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan with Nate Trotter and William Runkel.

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