Defense officials from Iran and Belarus met on Thursday, March 13, to discuss deepening military cooperation – potentially on drone production.

The meeting took place at an unspecified location the same day Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko said the country would set up drone production during a joint press conference in Moscow alongside Russian leader Vladimir Putin – albeit with no specified timeframes.

According to Iran’s state news agency, Iranian Defense Minister Amir Nasirzadeh met with Chairman of Belarus’s State Military-Industrial Committee Dmitry Pantus, during which both sides “[emphasized] the importance of developing defense and industrial cooperation, reviewed the progress of implementing previously concluded agreements between the two countries in the field of defense and industry.”

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Nasirzadeh “declared readiness to deepen cooperation and transfer advanced technologies,” while Pantus “stressed the need to accelerate the implementation of joint projects and develop cooperation in the field of production of military equipment and modern technologies,” the report says.

Moscow’s weapon of choice

Moscow has been using Iranian Shahed drones against Ukraine since the onset of its 2022 invasion. The drones’ relatively low costs compared to missiles have made them Moscow’s preferred choice of weapons for long-range strikes against Ukraine, particularly the country’s infrastructure.

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While Iran initially supplied the drones to Russia, Russia has subsequently set up domestic production in Tatarstan, manufacturing a domestic variant known as the Geran

While Ukraine has had some success striking Russia’s drone production facilities in Tatarstan, Ukraine is unlikely to attack the proposed plant in Belarus in fear of dragging Minsk into the war.

Belarus’s planned drone production

During Thursday’s joint press conference, Lukashenko said the country received Moscow’s blessing – and assistance – to set up drone production inside the country.

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“We recently had [Russian Minister of Economic Development] Maxim Reshetnikov with samples of drones. There were many specialists, in Belarus they showed what level Russia has reached in this regard. And we agreed, Vladimir Vladimirovich [Putin] approved the construction of another plant for the production of unmanned aerial vehicles,” Lukashenko said.

Earlier this month, Lukashenko signaled his willingness to host Russian drone production in his country – with a capacity of up to 100,000 drones per year.

“We are ready to build a plant. We guarantee that you will not build in Russia like here,” Lukashenko said, according to Russian state media TASS. “We make airplanes and helicopters for agriculture. They showed them at the exhibition. We will see all of this. So get ready.”

That said, at present there are no specifics to the planned production, including timeframe, the drone types and models to be produced.

But if Belarus is to manufacture weapons for Russian troops to be used in Ukraine, it would likely become a threat for Ukraine – Moscow used Belarus as a launching pad for its 2022 invasion.

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Will Russia launch the drones straight from Belarus? Or would they be transported to Russia first? What about Belarus’s neighbors in NATO? Can Ukraine attack those plants? What would happen then? Will Iran help Belarus with the drone production?

Minsk and Moscow ratified a mutual defense pact on Thursday. Belarus’s decision to host drone production for Moscow is likely to have profound implications for security in the area.

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