Explained: 30-Day Ceasefire Proposal in Ukraine – What We Know

Kyiv agreed to a US-backed 30-day ceasefire proposal on March 11 after an eight-hour discussion between high-ranking US and Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia.

Before the meeting, Kyiv said it was open to an air-and-sky ceasefire but, at least initially, ruled out the cessation of ground combat.

It’s not been confirmed if the resulting 30-day proposal brought to Moscow means a full ceasefire or an air-and-sky-only ceasefire.

While Kyiv has agreed to the US proposal, Moscow appears to be on the fence about it as of Monday, March 17.

How would the ceasefire work?

According to the joint statement following the Saudi talks, it should be an “immediate” 30-day ceasefire if implemented.

How and when it would be implemented is riddled with Catch-22 dilemmas.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, on Sunday, reiterating similar statements by his colleagues, said that a ceasefire is a prerequisite to peace negotiations, where details such as the monitoring and peacekeeping forces could then be ironed out afterward.

However, Russian leader Vladimir Putin said he would agree to a ceasefire only if it leads to what he called a long-term peace on Thursday and questioned how a ceasefire could be implemented effectively and raised a number of “conditions that need to be studied,” including its enforcement alongside a front line stretching for hundreds of kilometers.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha also raised concerns about monitoring a ceasefire in an interview with RBC Ukraine.

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Sybiha said that having a concrete timeline is difficult as things currently stand.

Simply put, some are saying stop shooting, then we will figure things out, while others are saying figure things out first and then we’ll stop shooting. And no one knows when everyone might stop shooting.

Monitoring or enforcing the ceasefire

Assuming all parties agree that there is a need to monitor or enforce the 30-day ceasefire, how to do so is another question.

In terms of monitoring the ceasefire, Sybiha said Kyiv wants a strong international monitoring mechanism – seeing how different missions from the UN and OSCE failed to prevent Russia’s 2022 invasion.

Enforcing it – namely a strong deterrent to prevent the parties from shooting at each other – would be an even more complex and nuanced discussion.

Kyiv wants NATO membership or, at the very least, physical security guarantees such as foreign boots on the ground to enforce a deal. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has long rejected Western peacekeepers in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Lavrov’s deputy proposed on Sunday an unarmed civilian mission instead as part of a security guarantee – a proposal Kyiv likely perceives as a repetition of the failed mechanism preceding the 2022 invasion.

The UK and France – part of as many as 30 countries – have voiced an openness to deploying peacekeepers to Ukraine when the deal is ready, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has said.

Kyiv’s conditions

Kyiv said it is open to the ceasefire immediately once Moscow agrees and said it is willing to compromise even on areas that it has the upper hand, such as the Black Sea, where Ukrainian attacks have effectively crippled Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

However, it does have certain red lines in subsequent peace talks.

Syhiba named three red lines for Kyiv in his RBC Ukraine interview – no recognition of Russian-occupied territories, no compromise on its EU and NATO aspirations, and no neutered military.

The red line on territories is more nuanced – Kyiv has repeatedly said it would not recognize Russian-occupied territories, but official comments suggest that it acknowledges that they cannot be returned in the foreseeable future.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he hoped to “return the territories through diplomatic channels” in February.

Moscow’s conditions

Kyiv and Rubio both said the ball is now in Russia’s court since the US and Ukraine agreed to an immediate ceasefire, but Moscow appears to be deciding what to do with that ball.

First, it criticized the characteristics of the ball and the circumstances in which the ball is played.

On Thursday, Putin said the 30-day ceasefire proposal is “good and we absolutely support it but there are issues that we need to discuss” before questioning the effectiveness of the proposal.

Putin’s alleged concerns included, but were not limited to, ceasefire monitoring along the front, the possibility of Kyiv rearming during the ceasefire (Kyiv’s expressed the same concern for Moscow), and what Putin called changing conditions on the ground, namely Russia’s recent advances.

“Is the ceasefire going to be used to continue forced mobilization, to continue rearming, to continue supplies of weaponry, to allow military units to regroup?” Putin asked in a rhetorical question.

Putin’s aides, meanwhile, vocally rejected the proposal.

US Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff reportedly briefed Putin on the US-backed ceasefire proposal and relayed Putin’s message to Trump the same day after Putin made the remarks, but the content of their conversation remains unclear.

Trump is scheduled to have a phone call with Putin on Tuesday, after which there might be a clearer answer from Moscow.

It is possible that Moscow would say yes to the 30-day ceasefire plan, but based on recent comments from Kremlin officials, it is likely that Moscow would issue a list of maximalist demands and blame other parties when they cannot be fulfilled, as it has done before.

In December 2021, two months before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow issued an ultimatum to the US in an attempt to not only bar Ukraine from joining NATO but also demanded that the bloc pull back its troops from other ex-Soviet member states, a demand analysts called unrealistic at the time – and not related to Kyiv’s status.

Seeing how Lavrov also vowed to take all four Ukrainian regions it claimed to have annexed (in addition to Crimea, which it illegally annexed in 2014), it is likely that Moscow would push for more territory that it currently controls, and the war goes on.