Lawmakers in Germany’s lower legislative house, the Bundestag, on Wednesday approved a massive defense spending bill that could put Germany on the path of rivaling Russia for military dominance of the continent.
The ultimate size of the pot of German taxpayer money now freed up for more German combat units, equipment, intensified training, and increased armaments production and assistance to Ukraine is tied to state borrowing limits linked to the size of Germany’s approximate $4.7 trillion GDP.
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But whatever the final figure, it will break records and end Germany’s status as a European state with a giant economy and tiny military.
The legislation approved by a comfortable 513-207 vote in favor designated future German defense and security spending as not subject to strict, constitutionally linked deficit spending limits. Defense spending funded by borrowing, if necessary, may exceed the equivalent 1% of Germany’s GDP, the majority agreed.
Germany’s upper house, the Bundesrat, still has to approve the bill for it to become law. Party factions there are similar to the lower house, and the legislation is generally expected to pass in a vote scheduled for Friday. However, a two-thirds majority is needed.
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Key riders designate civil protection, intelligence services, and “support for states attacked in violation of international law” as legitimate subjects for increased German national defense and security spending. The clauses are widely seen as hard-wiring wide-reaching future German assistance to Ukraine, and the funding for it, into the legislation.
Along with national security, the bill aims to jump-start Germany’s economy with capital injections into manufacturing and investment in national infrastructure.
A study published by the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS), published on Wednesday, estimated total Russian 2024 military expenditures taking into account purchasing power parity (PPP) to be at $461 billion.
Most analysts estimate about half of Russian military expenditures are directed against Ukraine. The question is whether Russia, heavily hit by sanctions and faced with rocketing inflation and worker shortages, can sustain that effort.
By comparison, German taxpayers spent $67.4 billion on defense in 2024, the report said.
Political will in Berlin to push national defense spending to higher levels, and industrial capacity to convert the money into military capacity, will determine how much more money will actually be spent, and on what.
CNN, on Tuesday, reported an additional €600 billion ($654 billion) in defense funds might be unlocked for defense spending over the next ten years. By that calculation, annual German defense spending would roughly double.
With the world’s third-biggest economy, Germany in 2023 had a GDP of around $4.53 trillion. Although the exact amount of borrowing Germany does would depend on future government decisions on whether a program or weapons system is needed, and industry’s capacity to produce it, theoretically, the bill once law would make legal immediate German state borrowing of at least an additional $470 billion for defense and associated needs, and more credit-funded defense spending as Germany’s economy expands.
The bill was strongly supported by major parties from the left, center, and center-right and opposed by the right and far right. The vote passed comfortably the two-thirds quorum (489) needed to approve changes to national borrowing “debt brake” limits.
Top officials from the center-left SPD, the party heading Germany’s outgoing ruling coalition, and from the center-right CDU, the leader of the incoming ruling coalition, both spoke out in favor of the bill and the massive defense build-up it would pay for. Supporters identified Russia by name as the threat Germany must counter militarily.
“The conditions we are facing are before anything else a result of [Russian leader Vladimir] Putin’s war against Europe. This is, specifically, a war against Europe, and not simply a war against Ukraine’s territorial integrity. This is, if you look at it, a war against our country,” Merz said. He went on to detail “continuing” Russian hybrid-war attacks against German media, national infrastructure, and government activities.
“Against these attacks, we will defend ourselves in coming years and decades with every means we have available to us,” Merz said.
Heading the largest party in the incoming ruling coalition, Merz is certain to become Germany’s new Chancellor. He has said he wants to form a new government by April.
Current Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) said prior to the vote: “I am aware that our proposal today has implications that go far beyond the previous point…We are entering a new era for Europe, for Germany, for NATO, and for future generations.”
ARD Berlin commentator Christoph Mestmacher said the vote was evidence of Germany’s reaction to recent shocking-for-Europe US abandonment of decades-old American commitment to European defense, and of a German conviction that Russia must be countered with materiel and force, as critical factors in the defense package’s strong support.
“It is a clear indicator that the view (of the majority) is that a major commitment of resources to this (German defense) is necessary. And also, it is a reaction to the difficult-to-predict US President Donald Trump, and also it is a signal for Ukraine and Europe, that they (Ukraine) will not be abandoned, and also to Putin – that Germany will stand up against him.”
Per the bill, money would go first towards creating a $544 billion fund to go towards overhauling Germany’s sometimes-creaking infrastructure and stimulating industrial growth through 2036. A condition of the center-left Green party’s support of the bill was an earmark of $100 billion from the fund toward climate-related spending.
Germany’s major news magazine, Der Spiegel, in a January report, said priority funding for Ukraine would go to new major arms deliveries, including three IRIS-T air defense batteries and ammunition, Patriot missiles, ten wheeled howitzers, and artillery ammunition.
The bill set aside $3.3 billion for the weapons deliveries. German assistance to Ukraine for the year is around $7.3 billion.
At the outset of Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine, Germany’s national leadership was confrontation-shy and fearful of the Kremlin and only willing to send Kyiv medical kits and battle helmets. That cross-party view of Russia has shifted dramatically, and now Germany is one of Ukraine’s strongest allies, giving massive deliveries of arms, cash, and state support to more than a million Ukrainian war refugees.
A German government read-out of arms deliveries to Ukraine in February 2025 alone included Gepard anti-aircraft cannon systems, drone detectors, drones, armored cars, mine-clearing vehicles and equipment, thousands of assault rifles, anti-aircraft missiles, tank main gun rounds, mortar rounds and artillery shells.
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