ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 19

The UK Ministry of Defense assesses that the Kremlin’s continued framing of its invasion of Ukraine as a “special military operation” rather than a war is actively hindering Russian force generation capabilities.

The UK Ministry of Defense reported on June 19 that Russian authorities are struggling to find legal means to punish military dissenters and those who refuse to mobilize because the classification of the conflict in Ukraine as a “special military operation” precludes legal punitive measures that could be employed during a formal war.

ISW has previously assessed that the Kremlin’s framing of the war as a “special operation” is compounding consistent issues with poor perceptions of Russian military leadership among Russian nationalists, problems with paying troops, lack of available forces, and unclear objectives among Russian forces.

The Kremlin is continuing to attempt to fight a major and grinding war in Ukraine with forces assembled for what the Kremlin incorrectly assumed would be a short invasion against token Ukrainian resistance. The Kremlin continues to struggle to correct this fundamental flaw in its “special military operation.”

Russian authorities likely seek to use war crimes trials against captured Ukrainian servicemen, particularly troops that defended Mariupol, to advance its narratives around the war.

Russian sources reported that the authorities of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) plan to hold war crimes tribunals until the end of August 2022 and that at least one of these tribunals will be held in Mariupol. These tribunals will reportedly be judged in accordance with DNR legislation (which notably allows capital punishment, unlike Russian law) and be modeled on the Nuremberg format for war crimes trials.

The trials are a sham attempt to try lawful prisoners of war as war criminals and support the Kremlin’s false framing of its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine as a “de-Nazification” operation. Despite the fact that DNR authorities plan to try Ukrainian servicemen in the DNR, a source in Russian law enforcement told state-owned media outlet TASS that the deputy commander of the Azov Regiment and the commander of the Ukrainian 36th Marine Brigade will both be transferred to Russia for investigation and trial.

Russian authorities will likely use these trials to strengthen legal controls over occupied areas; further demoralize Ukrainian defenders by setting a harsh legal precedent during preliminary tribunals; and advance the Kremlin’s false narrative of invading Ukraine to “de-Nazify” it.

Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts

Russia seeks to encircle Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts – the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas.

Highly concentrated Russian artillery power, paired with likely understrength infantry units, remains insufficient to enable Russian advances within Severodonetsk. Russian troops continued to fight for control of the city but made few gains on June 19.

Russian forces also continued efforts to encircle the remaining Ukrainian troops in the Azot industrial plant.

Telegram channels in Russia claimed that its forces are advancing on Lysychansk from the south and fighting in Berestove, Spirne, Vovchoyarivka, and the Lysychansk Oil Refinery.

Russian troops conducted airstrikes around Severodonetsk and Lysychansk and strengthened their grouping to the south of the area around Orikhove and Toshkivka. They likely seek to interdict the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway to support offensive operations in Lysychansk.

Key Takeaways

• Concentrated Russian artillery power paired with likely understrength infantry units remains insufficient to enable Russian advances within Severodonetsk;
• Russian forces continued to prepare to advance on Slovyansk from southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman;
• Russian forces are focusing on strengthening defensive positions along the Southern Axis due to recent successful Ukrainian counterattacks along the Kherson-Mykolaiv Oblast border;
• Successful Ukrainian counterattacks in the Zaporizhia area are forcing Russian forces to rush reinforcements to this weakened sector of the front line;
• Russian forces are likely conducting false-flag artillery attacks against Russian-held territory to dissuade Ukrainian sentiment and encourage the mobilization of proxy forces.

Authors: Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko and Mason Clark

Full report here