There is a chance of a second offensive from Belarus into Ukrainian territory, but one shouldn’t overestimate it, says Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov.
He made the comments in response to a statement by a prominent member of the opposition in Belarus that President Lukashenko is preparing to wage war against Ukraine.
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“There is always danger, because the enemyʼs border stretches for 2,500 km — it is Belarus, Russia and temporarily-occupied territories. But the real front line, where the battles are fought, is 1,300 km. The border with Belarus reaches 1,200 km, so the risk from the north remains,” Reznikov said in comments for Hromadske TV.
The minister went on to say that only a small number of Belarusians—possibly a few units—were present within the Russian army during the initial invasion in February.
“That is, there is no information that serious formations from Belarus took part in the war earlier. At the moment, propaganda there has less momentum than in Russia, so it is difficult for me to imagine what should motivate the Belarusians to join this war now,” Reznikov added.
“There is a risk, but I would not overestimate it. We are ready for anything. Lukashenko is looking for a balance, on the one hand, he has to show political anschluss with the Russian Federation and, on the other hand, he feels that this could be his final end,” Reznikov said, summing up.
ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November, 4, 2024
Pavlo Latushko, the deputy head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus and one of the top opposition figures in Belarus, had earlier claimed that Lukashenko is making preparations to wage war against Ukraine. He said that between November 2022 and February 2023, 120,000 Russian soldiers would be stationed in Belarus as part of a deal between Lukashenko and Russia. Belarus has reportedly agreed to contribute an additional 100,000 soldiers who have been mobilised.
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