Ukraine Breaking News Today Live on 03-04-2024

The world in focus, as seen by a Canadian leading global affairs analyst, writer and speaker, in his review of international media.

Rescue workers in Odesa pulled the bodies of a mother and baby from the rubble of an apartment building on Sunday, bringing the death toll in a Russian attack two days ago to 12. In all, fine children died and 20 were injured. It was the deadliest attack in the southern port city since the start of the war

President Volodymyr Zelensky said delays by the country’s allies in supplying air defenses had contributed to the deaths in Odesa. The denunciation by Mr. Zelensky appeared to reflect frustration that Ukraine’s capacity to resist Moscow’s military campaign and protect its own citizens has been undermined by the failure of the U.S. House of Representatives to pass a multibillion-dollar military aid package. The drone hit the building overnight on Friday and since then emergency workers have been picking through rubble. This weekend’s attack, however, has caused particular outrage among Ukrainians. Rescue workers said that the mother and baby were found together. “The mother tried to cover her 8-month-old child,” said a statement by the State Emergency Service posted on the Telegram social messaging service. “They were found in a tight embrace.” - NYT

Ukraine has been criticized for the rapid advance of Russian forces following the fall of Avdiivka.

Ukrainian forces are constantly working on fortifications, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Monday, at a time when Russian troops are pushing in the east.

The statement comes amid some criticism of Ukrainian defense lines after the rapid advances of Russian forces following their capture of the eastern stronghold of Avdiivka. 

In a secret conversation about sending a high-tech missile to Ukraine to fight Russia, four Luftwaffe senior staffers don’t mention the war.

Transcripts of a once-confidential audio record of a conversation between four senior German Air Force staff about giving high-tech Taurus missiles to Kyiv showed Luftwaffe top brass is worried the weapon isn’t the right one for the job, and is very disinclined to get involved in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

• The basic facts

The planning talk focused on the mechanics of putting Germany’s most effective long-range weapons system into effective use by the Ukrainian military, and possible time intervals between the moment Berlin would make the political decision to hand over Taurus missiles to Ukraine and the time the Ukrainian Air Force could deploy the weapons in battle.

Russian milbloggers frequently complain that Ukraine seems to be able to strike at strategically important military and infrastructure facilities on the Crimean Peninsula with impunity.

Ukraine seems to have again hit important Russian targets in Crimea and within Russia over the weekend – reportedly hitting oil refineries and an air base.

According to Russian media, Ukraine launched a 38-drone mass attack against targets in Feodosia in occupied Crimea on Sunday.

Ukraine’s point-person on Euro-Atlantic Integration said a negotiating framework could be decided by March 19.

Kyiv is expecting the European Commission to present a negotiating framework for Ukraine’s accession to the European Union no later than March 12, Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration told Ukrainian media, speaking on the sidelines of an international conference on sexual violence.

“No later than March 12, we expect the European Commission to present the negotiating framework and evaluate its progress in reforms. So, on March 19 (at an EU leaders’ summit), EU countries could adopt the decision. We hope that there will be no delays,” Ukrinform quotes Olha Stefanishyna saying in an article published Monday.

The two events in 2022 had raised 10 billion and six billion euros, respectively, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal told a press conference. 

Ukraine said Monday that it had not seen the 16 billion euros ($17.4 billion) in proceeds from two donor conferences held in Poland in 2022, early in Russia's invasion. 

The announcement comes amid worries in Kyiv surrounding military and financial support, with the war entering its third year. 

The Polish prime minister’s appeal came as a likely response to appease Kyiv and local farmers as the rift between Warsaw and Kyiv widened over Ukrainian farm imports.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has called on the EU to impose full sanctions on Russian and Belarusian farm imports in response to ongoing protests across the bloc – particularly in Poland – against competition from Ukrainian imports.

As Warsaw is mulling a temporary ban on Ukrainian imports as a result of recent protests, Tusk’s appeal could be interpreted as a move to appease Kyiv over what the former called a “painful” decision.

In 2024, Ukraine has no choice but to keep fighting for survival. It requires a steady supply of Western assistance to counter the Russian offensive fueled by ramped-up military production.

In 2024, considering the absence of US military aid, Ukraine might have difficulty holding back the Russian offensive. The US has played a central role in providing different types of aid (e.g., financial, security assistance, weapons, and humanitarian), amounting to around $75 billion. It has provided approximately half of the foreign military aid to Ukraine, or $47 billion, ensuring that Ukraine could survive Russian aggression since February 2022.

To fully replace it, EU countries would have to double the present pace of arms assistance, which seems impossible, considering the challenging economic and political climate. Moreover, since the fall, EU political leaders have issued statements about the inability to replace US military assistance.

The blockade has been a topic of discussion for some time and will likely further restrict the information flow ahead of the upcoming presidential election on March 17.

As previous attempts to ban virtual private networks (VPNs) in Russia to limit internet access have borne no fruits, Moscow now introduced a ban on VPN advertisements instead, starting March 1.

Under the new law, advertisements for some VPN services, namely “information about ways, methods of providing access to information resources and (or) information and telecommunication networks, access to which is limited on the territory of the Russian Federation,” have now been banned in Russia.

An EU Czech-led initiative that hopes to find $1.5 billion to buy 800,000 critically needed ammunition for the Ukrainian army is moving fast and Congress might vote for more next month.

The first emergency deliveries of artillery shells bought by EU nations to compensate for the impasse in US military support to Ukraine that has been stalled in Congress for more than two months may reach the front line “within weeks,” a senior official in Prague said.

Jan Jires, director general for defense policy at the Czech Ministry of Defense, told the Bloomberg news agency that a key group of European states has already agreed to ante-up most of the funding needed to support the $1.5 billion emergency Ukrainian assistance initiative put forward by his government in late February.

Put simply, if Trump regains power, he will work hand-in-glove with Putin and bring a toothless Western alliance closer to a general war than it has ever been since 1938.

On Feb. 27, I attended a Nikki Haley rally held at the Wings Over the Rockies aviation museum in Centennial Colorado. Despite snowy weather, short notice, and confusion caused by the existence of another Wings air and space museum some 20 miles away in Denver, the capacious facility was packed with truly enthusiastic supporters.

Haley began her speech with standard talking points about how Donald Trump has led the Republican party to defeat in every election since 2018 and got expected applause. But the crowd really heated up when she took Trump on for his support of Russian President Vladmir Putin against Ukraine.

Shmygal clarified in a press conference held in Kyiv that there have been no instances of military equipment, humanitarian aid, or fuel shipments being obstructed to Ukraine.

Poland's blockade by farmers along the border with Ukraine hasn't stopped the delivery of weapons or aid to Kyiv, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Monday, March 4.

The blockade is in protest against what the farmers perceive as unfair competition from goods entering Poland's market from Ukraine.

Despite a large police presence, thousands of Russians joined the funeral procession and laid flowers at his grave.

Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny was buried in Moscow on Friday. Despite a large police presence, thousands of Russians joined the funeral procession and laid flowers at his grave. Some even shouted anti-Putin and anti-war slogans and dozens were arrested. Commentators are also moved.

He set an example

Calls have been mounting in Washington and Europe to set up a fund for Ukraine using billions of dollars in Russia assets frozen by the West over Moscow's 2022 invasion.

Ukraine urged the West on Monday to transfer control of confiscated Russian assets to Kyiv so they could be used to rebuild the country and fund its recovery.

Calls have been mounting in Washington and Europe to set up a fund for Ukraine using billions of dollars in Russia bank accounts, investments and other assets frozen by the West over Moscow's 2022 invasion of its neighbour.

October to November 2022 – the onslaught against Ukrainian civil infrastructure gets underway in earnest with Shahed/Geran kamikaze drones supplementing the full range of missiles

Please find the previous parts of the digest below:

February to March 2022

After three days of delays due to high winds, the launch finally proceeded for NASA's Matthew Dominick, Michael Barratt, and Jeanette Epps along with Russian cosmonaut with Alexander Grebenkin.

Alexander Grebenkin, a former Russian military officer and current Roscosmos cosmonaut, was part of the crew of four aboard SpaceX's Falcon rocket that launched on Sunday heading for the International Space Station (ISS), AP reported.

The rocket was launched from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida after three days of delay due to high winds. A further delay was almost caused by the discovery on Sunday night of a small crack in the seal of the SpaceX capsule's hatch.

The HUR reported gaining access to Russia's defense ministry and can now map its entire structure down to the level of bureaucrats.

Cyber specialists from Ukraine’s Military Intelligence (HUR) reported that they’d hacked Russian servers and can now establish the “complete structure” of Russia’s defense ministry.

“The analysis of the obtained data also helped to identify the generals, other high-ranking managers of the structural units of the Ministry of Defense, as well as deputies, assistants, specialists – all those who used software for electronic document management called ‘bureaucrats,’” the HUR wrote in a Telegram post on Monday (Feb. 4).

Typically, the event -- the biggest single day of voting in the country's drawn out, state-by-state primary season -- has been a make-or-break moment for candidates as the race narrows.

Americans from 15 states and one territory vote simultaneously on "Super Tuesday," a campaign calendar milestone expected to leave Donald Trump a hair's breadth from securing the Republican Party's presidential nomination.

Typically, the event -- the biggest single day of voting in the country's drawn out, state-by-state primary season -- has been a make-or-break moment for candidates as the race narrows.

While Vladimir Putin’s fifth term as Russia’s president is a foregone conclusion every effort is being made to achieve the maximum margin of victory – and the internet is the key.

For almost a decade and with increased efforts since the last presidential election, Russia’s internet police have been attempting to control its citizens’ access to the internet.

In recent weeks Roskomnadzor, the federal agency tasked with monitoring, controlling and censoring Russian mass media has stepped its activities up a gear. The levels of control are unparalleled since 2018, when it attempted to close down the Telegram messaging platform resulting in millions of web addresses being blocked.

Haley's symbolic victory in the nation's capital comes just ahead a decisive day in the long US nominating process -- Super Tuesday, in which 15 states and one territory vote.

Nikki Haley won the Republican presidential primary in Washington DC on Sunday, scoring her first victory as she struggles to remain relevant in her underdog race against Donald Trump.

Haley's symbolic victory in the nation's capital comes just ahead a decisive day in the long US nominating process -- Super Tuesday, in which 15 states and one territory vote.

Turkey hopes talks for a ceasefire in Ukraine will start soon, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Sunday, at the end of a diplomatic forum in the southern city of Antalya.

Turkey hopes talks for a ceasefire in Ukraine will start soon, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Sunday (3 March), at the end of a diplomatic forum in the southern city of Antalya.

Fidan met his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, on Friday on the sidelines of the Antalya Diplomacy Forum. He told reporters he had discussed a number of issues with Lavrov, including Ukraine.

In an embarrassing incident for Berlin, which is under pressure to supply missiles to Kyiv, a recording of leaked talks was posted on social media on Friday.

The Kremlin on Monday said the content of leaked conversations between German officials discussing potential strikes on Crimea proved Western countries were participating in the conflict in Ukraine.

The leaks came as an embarrassment for Berlin, which is under pressure to supply Taurus missiles to Kyiv struggling with ammunition shortages.

According to Ukraine's Intelligence, Moscow reportedly used it to transport military cargo, particularly engineering ammunition from the "Polimer" plant.

Ukraine said it blew up a railway bridge in Russia's southwestern Samara region on Monday, March 4. 

The incident is the latest in a string of explosions targeting Russia's rail network, which Kyiv says Moscow uses to move troops and equipment for its invasion of Ukraine.

The leak, which appeared on Russian social media, features a 38-minute recording where participants discuss the potential use of German-made Taurus missiles and their impact.

Germany has accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of trying to create division by leaking a confidential German army discussion about the war in Ukraine.

The leak, which appeared on Russian social media, features a 38-minute recording where participants discuss the potential use of German-made Taurus missiles and their impact, as well as the use of long-range missiles provided to Ukraine by France and Britain.

The attack killed five children, including two babies less than a year old, according to statements by Zelensky and the regional governor.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday called for the world to help Kyiv defeat "Russian evil" as the death toll from a drone strike on Odesa rose to 12, including five children.

The strike on an apartment block in the southern port city early Saturday morning partially destroyed several floors, leaving more than a dozen people under the rubble.

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• China and Turkey continue to pursue their own negotiation platforms for a settlement in Ukraine, which the Kremlin is exploiting to further its own information operations aimed at discouraging continued international support for Ukraine.
• Recent relatively high Russian aviation losses appear to be prompting a significant decrease in Russian aviation activity in eastern Ukraine, although it is unclear how long this decrease in activity will last.
• Delays in Western security assistance will likely make Ukraine’s energy infrastructure more vulnerable to Russian strikes.
• Russian forces operating around Avdiivka appear to be adapting to conducting offensive ground operations with trained and untrained personnel.
• German officials confirmed that the Kremlin is conducting an information operation aimed at deterring Western states, particularly Germany, from sending additional military aid to Ukraine.
• The Russian Anti-Terrorism Committee (NAK) announced on March 3 that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) conducted a localized counter-terrorism operation in Karabulak, Republic of Ingushetia.
• Positional engagements continued throughout the theater on March 3.
• Russian regional administrations continue efforts to expand the aperture of ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts.