Ukraine Breaking News Today Live on 04-15-2024

“Important Stories” have reported how Russian billionaires and other “VIPs” have been changing their Wikipedia biographies since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The investigative website “Important Stories (iStories),” working with the Wikiganda project, has identified how almost a hundred members of Russia’s elite have been editing their biographies on both Russian and English versions of Wikipedia in an attempt to distance themselves from President Vladimir Putin and his so-called “special military operation (SVO)” by removing references to their [Russian] citizenship, property, sanctions and ties to the regime.

Wikiganda is a non-profit organization that monitors information manipulation in the online encyclopedia. They believe that Wikipedia, is fighting a never-ending “war of edits,” with the Russian-language version edited by more than 10,000 people and hundreds of thousands revising the English-language encyclopedia each month.

The purchase marks a significant shift in Belgrade-Moscow relations, with the former having long relied on the latter for armaments due to the cultural and political ties between the two.

Serbia is in negotiations with France to purchase a dozen Rafale fighter jets for $3 billion in a bid to diversify its armaments.

The new 4.5-generation multirole fighters are expected to replace Belgrade’s aging Soviet MiG-29 fleet, indicating a significant shift in its diplomatic stance as the deal would entail long-term commitments with the West that require training and logistic support from France.

NBU allows further hryvnia weakening.

Bonds: Bond yields continue to decline

Last week, the MoF again cut interest rates for UAH bonds in the primary market, which induced YTM decreases in the secondary market, too.At the primary auction last Tuesday, investors’ focus was again on 12-month bills, allowing the MoF to decrease interest rates by 15bp to 16.1%. The total decline since the NBU cut its key rate and CD rates in March reached 70bp. The MoF also decreased rates for two-year paper by 10bp to 17% or 60bp overall after the NBU cut its rates. Only for three-year notes the MoF kept interest rates unchanged for the fourth week at 18.3%. See details in the auction review.In the secondary bond market, YTMs on UAH bonds also gradually declined last week. Total turnover was nearly flat at UAH6.4bn, with FX-denominated trades’ share up to 27%.Individuals remain the most active investors and increased their portfolios by almost 2% last week.

ICU view: The MoF took advantage of high competition for shorter bills and decreased interest rates. At the same time, investors have little appetite for a three-year note, keeping terms of their bids nearly the same for the fourth week. Last week, the yield curve became even steeper, and the YTM premium for a three-year paper over one-year bills increased to 220bp from 170bp before the NBU cut its rates in March. High demand for 12-month bills may allow further rate cuts for the MoF at tomorrow's primary auction. The further sharp slowdown in annual inflation in March is yet another argument in favour of a further decline in NBU rates and, accordingly, yields on bonds. The market broadly expects that the NBU will decide to continue a monetary policy easing cycle at the end of April.

Trump in the dog house again, as other criminal cases await their turn.

Donald Trump's New York criminal trial opened Monday in a historic first for a US ex-president and a seismic twist to an already explosive 2024 presidential election, where the scandal-plagued Republican is seeking to return to power.

“Good morning Mr Trump,” Judge Juan Merchan said to the defendant in the courtroom, where the Republican sat with hunched shoulders and a stern expression.

Kyiv Post sources in Ukrainian intelligence confirmed that Ukrainian missiles struck a Russian command post on the Crimean peninsula with high-ranking Russian officers.

Ukraine’s defense forces have hit a Russian command post with high-ranking Russian officers in Russian-occupied Crimea, intelligence sources told Kyiv Post.

Explosions sounded in Crimea on Monday, April 15 in an air raid that lasted over two hours.

Russia’s Ministry of Defense has not provided any photo or video evidence, and local Telegram channels have not reported sightings of any attack, which makes the claim likely to be untrue.

Russia’s Ministry of Defense said it had intercepted a Ukrainian drone over the Krasnodar region on Russia’s Black Sea coast in the early hours of Monday, April 15, but so far there has been no evidence to substantiate the claims.

“Over the past night, an attempt by the Kyiv regime to carry out a terrorist attack using aircraft-type UAVs against targets on the territory of the Russian Federation was stopped.

As Kyiv’s troops suffer from shortages of artillery and air defense ammunition, Ukrainian FPV pilots continue to rack up impressive numbers of kills.

Some Russian units have been employing unorthodox combat transport such as Chinese ATV and motorcycles to carry out attacks over the weekend, but it was conventional infantry supported by artillery that secured gains in the tactically important Chasiv Yar sector, according to mainstream and social media channels.

Images published by the pro-Russian Zarya militia unit, formed by residents of the so-called Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR), showed soldiers aboard motocross-type motorcycles advancing at speed across fields towards Ukrainian positions, facing no retaliatory fire.  A unit spokesman claimed the Ukrainian artillery lacks ammunition to hit such fast-moving targets.

The ruling Georgian Dream party announced the proposal earlier this month, reviving a similar bill that was dropped a year ago after mass protests.

Scuffles broke out in Georgia's parliament on Monday over the government's re-introduction of a controversial "foreign influence" bill that critics say mirrors repressive Russian legislation used to silence and intimidate dissidents.

The ruling Georgian Dream party announced the proposal earlier this month, reviving a similar bill that was dropped a year ago after mass protests.

Imports records for the first quarter of 2024 of new and used cars from China, include both Chinese and foreign brands manufactured there, the majority being electric vehicles.

Ukraine imported approximately 4,200 passenger cars from China – mostly electric – during the first quarter of 2024, a 75 percent increase compared to the same period last year.

The Ukrainian Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association (UkrAutoprom) reported on Telegram, that close to 3,000 of those imported were new cars, an increase of 114 percent and 18 percent of all new passenger cars imported.

Transdnistria broke from Moldova before the Soviet collapse and fought a brief war against the newly independent state.

The acting chair of Europe’s biggest security body pledged on Friday (12 April) to boost efforts to breathe new life into the process of resolving a three-decade-old dispute between Moldova and the ex-Soviet state’s pro-Russian separatist Transnistria enclave.

Ian Borg, Maltese Foreign Minister and acting Chair of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), met officials both of Moldova’s pro-European government and the self-styled president of Transnistria.

Ukraine’s top diplomat said that discussions with partners regarding various options for bolstering air defense – including additional Patriots – are ongoing.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that Patriot systems from Poland could potentially safeguard the western Ukrainian border region from Russian aerial assaults.

Kuleba appeared in an interview on national television Sunday, April 14 to discuss Ukraine’s dire air defense situation in wake of a series of Russian aerial attacks throughout the country.

Russia’s Ministry of Defense mentioned the group for the first time in its daily updates, and it is allegedly fighting in the Belgorod sector bordering Ukraine.

Russia’s Ministry of Defense mentioned the existence of a “Sever” (meaning north in Russian) operational strategic group for the first time in its daily updates on April 14.

“In the Belgorod sector, units of the Sever group of forces, with the support of aviation and artillery, hit the manpower and equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in the areas of the Ternova and Hatishche settlements in the Kharkiv region and Radyanskoye in the Sumy region,” the official update alleged.

The Estonian General Staff noted that Russian forces in Ukraine are employing “amoeba tactics,” deploying smaller forces across various fronts.

Estonian Defense Forces’ Chief of the General Staff, Major General Enno Mõts, has stated that Russia could potentially achieve a breakthrough in Kharkiv “in one fell swoop,” but maintaining control would require a significantly larger troop presence, as reported by ERR.

Mõts described the Russian strategy in Ukraine as employing the “amoeba tactic,” where they use smaller forces dispersed across multiple areas, hoping to identify openings.

There are signs that Trump and his Republican diehards are being forced to yield on the issue of approving aid for Ukraine, so fingers crossed.

I really am going to hate writing this section—because it’s more hopeful than I would like to be by nature. What I am going to say in it comes from a number of sources in the US who have decent connections either in the House or in the Republican Party. I can’t say who are what they are, and I can’t know for sure what they are telling me is right (except to say that they have often been right in the past). So, take what I am telling you with a big grain of salt—but at least the news is better now than earlier.

It seems the odds of a floor vote in the House of Representatives on aid for Ukraine have risen significantly over the last week. Indeed, a number of people are saying that the vote could happen this week (or early the week after). There are still some real unknowns (will the vote be on the Senate bill, or a House bill that makes aid come in the form of loans?) but it seems that there might actually be a vote.

Since the start of the full-scale invasion, Russia has been using various types of thermobaric weapons, which alter the pressure in enclosed spaces for greater lethality.

Principle of action

Thermobaric weapons essentially differ from conventional weapons by the very principle of action: they explode like a small nuclear bomb – only without emitting radioactive particles.

Europe’s biggest fraud suddenly turned into its biggest espionage scandal.

Europe’s biggest fraud suddenly turned into its biggest espionage scandal. A sensational story in the Financial Times reads like a John Le Carre thriller but isn’t fiction. Investigators have discovered that years ago Russia infiltrated Europe’s financial, political, NATO, police, and military systems. And at the center of this scheme was a middle-aged, Austrian-born Czech named Jan Marsalek who disappeared in 2020 after being charged with fraud and embezzlement involving Germany’s $2-billion Wirecard scandal. Now, four years later, he is also accused of obtaining and selling secrets to the Russians as he rose to the position of Chief Operating Officer of the German payments processing giant. He commingled his crimes. He sold the Kremlin access to Wirecard’s confidential data base containing financial information about millions of people. He embezzled funds and also used his company’s transactions business to bribe officials and finance Russian undercover operations and crimes. “Marsalek used compromised intelligence officials in Vienna to spy on European citizens and plot break-ins and assassinations by elite Russian hit squads,” wrote FinTimes’ reporter Sam Jones.

Russian chauvinists targeting migrants and national minorities.

Russian ultranationalist milbloggers continue to employ virulently anti-migrant rhetoric and call for xenophobic domestic policies, but in doing so are exposing the inherent hypocrisy in Russia’s treatment of its own indigenous ethnic minority communities.

Several ultranationalist milbloggers seized on an April 5 post by the Leningrad Oblast House of Friendship cultural center for awarding the local “Khorezm” Uzbek cultural organization with a grant for its work in “harmonization of interethnic relations and support for small indigenous peoples of Leningrad Oblast.” 

Iran attacked Israel with more than 300 drones and missiles on Saturday, but 99% of them were intercepted by Israeli forces backed by allies, official Israeli reports said.

Ukraine’s situation warrants a coordinated international response similar to that received by Israel in the wake of Iranian drone and missile strikes, some Czech officials who expressed support for Israel said.

Iran attacked Israel with more than 300 drones and missiles on Saturday, but 99% of them were intercepted by Israeli forces backed by allies, official Israeli reports said. According to Israeli officials, the United States, Britain, Jordan and France were involved in defending the country.

Johnson is walking a knife edge on aid for Ukraine, as far-right lawmakers in the House of Representatives have grown skeptical of pouring billions of dollars into Kyiv's fight against Russia.

US House Speaker Mike Johnson said Sunday he aims to advance war-time aid to Israel this week following Iran's weekend attack, but did not clarify whether Ukraine funding would be part of the package.

American assistance for both nations has languished amid political bickering in Congress, with Johnson -- an ally of presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump -- blocking an earlier $95 billion in aid sought by President Joe Biden for Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan which had passed the Senate.

He added that "the obvious collaboration between the two regimes in spreading terror must face a resolute and united response from the world".

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday condemned Tehran's strikes on Israel and urged a united global response to "terror" attacks by Russia and Iran.

"Iran's actions threaten the entire region and the world, just as Russia's actions threaten a larger conflict," Zelensky wrote on X.

Over the past month Ukraine’s partners have given Kyiv news on the issues President Zelensky described as “vitally important” that would significantly affect the course of the war with Russia.

March 15

A meeting of the Weimar Triangle, which includes France, Germany, and Poland, announced the creation of the Coalition of “long-range jet artillery.” The direction for the organization of joint production of weapons in Ukraine was also confirmed. This decision will provide an impetus for deepening defense cooperation. The German corporation Rheinmetal has already announced plans to build four arms factories in Ukraine. Such activity by Germany will encourage Polish and French manufacturers to enter the Ukrainian market more actively.

An examination of the Ukrainian-made UJ-22 Airborne and the AQ-400 Scythe drones.

Since the beginning of 2024, Ukraine has struck at least 11 major oil refineries in Russia, thus reducing the industry’s total capacity by nearly 14 percent. In all of the strikes Ukraine used kamikaze drones of its own make as the country is short of alternatives. While its partners are still undecided on supplying it with long-range missiles, Ukraine is making the most of the domestic development and production of strike UAVs.

If the target is an industrial facility, it may well be more rational to use drones rather than missiles that are costlier and more difficult to produce. On the other hand, it is more rational to use high precision missiles against strongly protected Russian targets, such as Black Sea Fleet ships, headquarters and command posts, military airfields or troop concentration sites.

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Israel’s success in defending against large-scale Iranian missile and drone strikes from Iranian territory on April 13 underscores the vulnerabilities that Ukrainian geography and the continued degradation of Ukraine’s air defense umbrella pose for Ukrainian efforts to defend against regular Russian missile and drone strikes.
• The exhaustion of US-provided air defenses resulting from delays in the resumption of US military assistance to Ukraine combined with improvements in Russian strike tactics have led to increasing effectiveness of the Russian strike campaign in Ukraine.
• Russia’s strike campaign against Ukraine demonstrates that even a limited number of successful ballistic or cruise missile strikes can cause significant and likely long-term damage to energy and other infrastructure, highlighting the need for an effective and well-provisioned air defense umbrella capable of a sustained high rate of interception.
• The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) is falsely equating the April 13 large-scale Iranian strikes targeting Israel with the April 1 Israeli strike targeting Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officials in Damascus, amplifying Iran’s “justification” for the April 13 strikes.
• Russian milbloggers largely responded to the April 13 Iranian strikes against Israel by suggesting that the increased threat of military escalation in the Middle East will likely draw Western, specifically US, attention and aid away from Ukraine.
• Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that the senior Russian military command aims to seize Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast by Russia’s Victory Day holiday on May 9.
• The Russian military’s ongoing restructuring of the Western Military District (WMD) into the Moscow and Leningrad military districts (MMD and LMD) is reportedly shifting areas of operational responsibility (AOR) for Russian force groupings in Ukraine.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has reportedly fired the commanders of a combined arms army and motorized rifle regiment operating in southern Ukraine likely for failing to recapture areas lost during the Ukrainian summer-fall 2023 counteroffensive.
• Ukrainian forces advanced south of Kreminna and southwest of Donetsk City and Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Chasiv Yar (west of Bakhmut) and Avdiivka.