Ukraine Breaking News Today Live on 12-03-2024

A bronze statue of Yevgeny Prigozhin was unveiled in the Central African Republic, another example of Russia’s growing influence and deepening ties in the continent.

A monument glorifying Yevgeny Prigozhin, the late head of Russian mercenary group Wagner, was inaugurated on Tuesday in the capital of the Central African Republic, Bangui.

The bronze statue shows Prigozhin holding a walkie-talkie and wearing a bullet-proof vest, alongside his right-hand man Dmitru Utkin, carrying a Kalashnikov, according to AFP. Both men died in a plane crash on August 23, 2023, two months after their aborted mutiny in Russia. 

Hundreds of people gathered outside the National Assembly, demanding the repeal of the martial law, while South Korea’s National Assembly voted to block President Yoon Suk Yeol’s declaration.

South Korean special forces attempted to enter the National Assembly in Seoul as protests erupted following the imposition of emergency martial law by President Yoon Suk Yeol.

South Korea's National Assembly has voted to block President Yoon Suk Yeol’s declaration of emergency martial law.

Former Naftogaz CEO will head a new ministry designed by President Volodymyr Zelensky to assist Ukrainian refugees to return, despite the objections of independent experts.

The Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament, has appointed Oleksii Chernyshov as the head of the newly created Ministry of National Unity, Ukrinform reported quoting Ukraine’s lawmaker Yaroslav Zheleznyak.  

The new ministry is in the process of establishing its work portfolio and to allocate its budget and organizational procedures. It is reported that its initial budget will be Hr.150 million ($3.6 million). 

Radio Liberty revealed that discussions are underway about deploying French and British troops to monitor a potential demarcation line as one possible scenario.

European countries are considering the possibility of sending military forces to Ukraine to ensure compliance with a potential ceasefire agreement, according to reports from NATO sources and various media outlets.

In Paris and London, policymakers are preparing different scenarios for future political involvement in the ongoing war in Ukraine and ways to support Kyiv in case new US leadership fully reshapes its foreign policy and reduces aid to Kyiv.

Domestic Debt Rollover in November, Hryvnia Weakening and Eurobond Holders Cool Optimism. Weekly Insight for Dec. 2

Bonds: Domestic debt rollover slightly up in November

Borrowings by MoF declined in November vs October, but domestic debt rollover rose slightly on significantly lower redemptions.The MoF borrowed UAH79bn in November, 23% less than a month before, including UAH71bn and US$188m. At the same time, the MoF repaid UAH30bn and US$287m in November, which is just 60% of redemptions in October. Therefore, the total rollover rate for the domestic debt was 188% in November and 157% in 11M24, up by 4pp compared with 10M24. Rollover for UAH-denominated debt was 237% in November and 188% in 11M24, up from 181% in 10M24. The rollover for USD-denominated debt was at just 65% in November, implying the 11M24 rollover was down to 113% from 119% in 10M24. The rate for EUR-denominated debt remained unchanged at 83% for the fourth month, as there were neither repayments nor borrowings in euros.

ICU view: The MoF continues to borrow substantially more than what is needed to refinance maturing debts, and clearly prefers borrowings in local currency. In December, the MoF plans to redeem several bonds worth UAH25bn, less than the monthly average redemptions this year. As there is no redemption in foreign currencies this month, the MoF only plans to offer UAH bonds. Therefore, we anticipate rollover rates going up in December for UAH debt and in total, while they will remain unchanged for debt in hard currencies.

Yoon went on to label the opposition, which holds a majority in the 300-member parliament, as "anti-state forces intent on overthrowing the regime" and called his decision "inevitable".

South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol on Tuesday declared emergency martial law, saying the step was necessary to protect the country from "communist forces" amid parliamentary wrangling over a budget bill.

"To safeguard a liberal South Korea from the threats posed by North Korea's communist forces and to eliminate anti-state elements... I hereby declare emergency martial law," Yoon said in a live televised address to the nation.

Sybiha emphasized the urgent need for at least 20 additional air defense systems, including Hawk, NASAMS, and IRIS-T, to help Ukraine prevent a potential blackout.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha on Tuesday called for NATO countries to send at least 20 more air defense systems to protect the energy infrastructure from Russian attacks, including systems like Hawk, NASAMS, or IRIS-T.

Ahead of a meeting with NATO foreign ministers, Sybiha stated that he would raise the issue of supporting Ukraine during the winter.

With superior forces, the Russians managed to cross the water barrier. However, Ukrainian troops, supported by artillery and UAV units, pushed the Russians back from the bridgehead.

Russian forces attempted to seize and hold a bridgehead on the right (west) bank of the Oskil River in the Kharkiv region, near the village of Novomlynsk. However, Ukrainian troops successfully repelled the assault, according to a report from the Khortytsia operational-strategic group on Telegram.

“The right bank of the Oskil is under the control of the Defense Forces. Ukrainian flags are flying over Novomlynsk,” read the caption accompanying a video released by the group.

The Kremlin is paying a butcher’s bill in broken bodies and smashed equipment to keep its offensives in Ukraine’s Donbas and Russia’s Kursk region from stalling.

The number of Russian soldiers killed or wounded in fighting in Ukraine set a new monthly record in November, and Friday was the Russian army’s single bloodiest day of combat since World War II, kill claim statistics published by the Ukrainian army over the weekend showed.

On Nov. 29 – a day the Russian military launched multiple frontal attacks in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region and in Russia’s Kursk province – 2,030 Russian soldiers lost their lives or were severely wounded, data made public by Ukraine’s Army General Staff said.

Trump’s pick for Ukraine envoy, Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, brings a seasoned military background and bold diplomacy to end the war, but his stance on NATO and Russia could challenge Ukraine’s position.

Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Keith Kellogg was nominated on Wednesday by US President-elect Donald Trump as his official White House envoy to facilitate the end to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – leading to a collective sigh of relief from some experts in Kyiv.

Ukraine has been waiting to learn who would be tapped to liaise with its beleaguered government during Trump’s second term after the president-elect campaigned on a platform of ushering a swift end to the Ukraine war. Many have been anxious to know whether the new point person would have experience in the region or pre-existing ideas about how the war might end, as some of Trump’s other recent adviser picks.

In their new book, Vatnik Soup: The Ultimate Guide to Russian Disinformation Pekka Kallioniemi and Morten Hammeken offer suggestions on how it can be defeated.

All the armies of Europe, Asia, and Africa combined, with all the treasure of the earth (our own excepted) in their military chest, with a Bonaparte for a commander, could not by force take a drink from the Ohio or make a track on the Blue Ridge in a trial of a thousand years. At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer. If it ever reach us it must spring up amongst us; it cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot we must ourselves be its author and finisher.

The Kremlin has launched a vast global operation to subvert the political systems of Western democracies as detailed in a new book: Vatnik Soup: The Ultimate Guide to Russian Disinformation (KLE-art, 594 pages).  The Scandinavian authors Pekka Kallioniemi, a Finn, and Morten Hammeken, a Dane, attempt to provide an antidote.

Vatnik Soup is divided into three sections.

What the European media are saying about Zelensky’s proposal on a working basis for a peace settlement.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has indicated that he would be willing to negotiate a ceasefire under certain conditions. The aim would be to pursue the 'diplomatic' liberation of the territories occupied by Russia and to place the rest of Ukraine under Nato protection, Zelensky explained in an interview. Commentators debate the significance of this statement.

Zelensky breaks a taboo

Demoralized by the opposition’s successes and with rotations suspended, Russian troops in Syria are being reinforced with interpreters and mercenaries from the so-called “African Corps.”

The morale of Russian military personnel in Syria has taken a beating due to the successful advances by forces opposed to the current regime. Arab Russian interpreters are urgently being sent to the Syrian city of Hama, where the Islamist group "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham" is fighting against Bashar al-Assad.

They are intended to support Russian officers attempting to restore order among Syrian government troops, Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) reported at a news briefing on Tuesday, Dec. 3.

The timing of the statement aligns with the NATO ministerial meeting and coincides with discussions around Ukraine’s potential NATO membership.

On the opening day of the NATO ministerial meeting in Brussels, Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement emphasizing that full NATO membership is the only viable security guarantee against Russian aggression.

The statement, which also marked the 30th anniversary of the Budapest Memorandum, categorically rejected any alternative security arrangements.

The incoming US president has vowed to press for a quick deal to end Russia’s war -- leaving Kyiv scrambling to position itself ahead of his January inauguration.

NATO foreign ministers looked set to rebuff Tuesday a push from Ukraine for progress on joining their alliance ahead of Donald Trump taking power in the United States.

The incoming US president has vowed to press for a quick deal to end Russia's war -- leaving Kyiv scrambling to position itself ahead of his January inauguration.

The prime minister vowed "no negotiations" with the opposition after the ruling Georgian Dream party shelved EU accession talks following its election victory.

Georgian police fired tear gas to try to disperse thousands of pro-EU demonstrators on Monday, rallying in the centre of Tbilisi amid a deepening political crisis in the Black Sea nation.

The country's prime minister hours earlier had vowed "no negotiations" with the opposition, enraged by the ruling Georgian Dream party's decision to shelve EU accession talks after it claimed victory in an election they decried as fraudulent.

The Kremlin likely expects a war conclusion and is preparing to spin it for the Russian public as a victory, regardless of hardline patriots’ or liberals’ expectations.

The Kremlin is reportedly shaping a “victory narrative” for the war in Ukraine, instructing regional officials to project the “right” messages to the Russian public. According to sources cited by Kommersant, the initiative was discussed during a recent vice-governorship seminar.

The meeting was held in Moscow’s Senezh Management Workshop from Nov. 27 to Nov. 30 and was chaired by the First Deputy Head of the Russian Presidential Administration (PA), Sergei Kiriyenko, supported by the heads of several departments within the administration.

2,000 North Korean soldiers led by three DPRK generals have joined Russian combat units in Russia’s war against Ukraine, with 9,000 more in reserve.

Two thousand North Korean soldiers have joined Russian units, being deployed with a Marine Brigade and an Airborne Division to actively engage in combat, with another 9,000 more in reserve.

Andriy Chernyak, a representative of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR), told Radio Svoboda that while these forces are likely not on the front lines, they still contribute to the aggression against Ukraine, assisting in the killing of Ukrainian soldiers.

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Prominent voices within the Russian information space continue to emphasize that Russian President Vladimir Putin is uninterested in a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine that results in anything less than total Ukrainian capitulation.
• Russia's increased domestic production of Shahed-type drones has allowed Russia to increase the number of drones it is using in strike packages launched at Ukraine, but Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) innovations are enabling Ukrainian forces to more effectively respond to Russian strike packages.
• The Kremlin continues efforts to minimize the war’s social impacts on the Russian populace while tacitly resetting the goalposts for what the Kremlin initially defined as victory in Ukraine.
• Pro-Kremlin Russian Telegram channel operators continue to resist Russian government efforts to deanonymize Russian social media accounts.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar, and Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.
• The Russian military command is focusing on training additional Russian forces and improving Russian forces' tactical assault operations.

US announces $725M for Kyiv with seven weeks left for Biden; Kremlin boosts military spending to 33% of budget as economy fails; ISW describes a zero-sum game of Shahed production and EW innovation.

The administration of US President Joe Biden unveiled the latest $725 million military aid package for Kyiv on Monday, with seven weeks to go in its term and about $9 billion left in funds earmarked for Ukraine.

“At the president’s direction, we will spend every dollar that Congress has appropriated for Ukraine, and to replenish our stockpiles,” Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said on Monday.