ANALYSIS: The Evolution of Russia's ‘Red Lines’ and Nuclear Threats

Kremlin officials and propagandists like to use the term "red lines" as a point of no return, after crossing which Russia will "start fighting for real" or even take out its nuclear briefcase and press the red button.

So, as another reminder of the powerful nuclear arsenal, on Wednesday evening Russia’s military held ballistic missile drills in what the country’s defense minister said was a drill to practice “delivering a massive nuclear strike.”

The exercises came hours after Moscow edged closer to revoking its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban treaty which outlaws all nuclear detonations, including live tests of nuclear weapons.

Putin has repeatedly invoked Russia's nuclear doctrine since launching the full-scale offensive against Ukraine in February last year but has so far failed to follow through with his threat.

Recently, the Kremlin's threats to the West and Ukraine about the inadmissibility of crossing certain "red lines" have turned into an anecdote and into the famous "China’s final warning.”

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues, both Kyiv and the West repeatedly cross these notorious red lines, less and less fearing a powerful Russian response.

Dmitry Medvedev – Herald of the Apocalypse

Since the beginning of full-scale invasion of Ukraine, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev found his specific role. The politician acts as a kind of "herald of the Apocalypse", either threatening the West and Ukraine with the use of nuclear weapons, or predicting a third World War.

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Medvedev mostly spreads threats through his Telegram channel, created in March 2022. Since that time, he has voiced more than fifty nuclear "warnings". They peaked in March 2023, with ten warnings in a single month.

On March 24, 2023,  for example, in an interview with Russian media, he said that every day the supply of Western weapons to Ukraine brings a nuclear apocalypse closer.

"Every day of the supply of foreign weapons to Ukraine ultimately brings this very nuclear apocalypse closer. But this does not mean that it will take place. But the horsemen of the apocalypse are on their way and continue their movement, you can be sure," Medvedev said.

However, these threats waned as the year progressed, with only four in April and two in June. In July, he suggested that any war could be swiftly concluded either through a peace treaty or, ominously, by resorting to the use of nuclear weapons, akin to the events of 1945.

The "red lines" were forgotten, decision-making centers are intact

Since the autumn of 2023, Russia has notably refrained from issuing "red lines" threats and attacks on "decision-making centers" in Kyiv, according to analysis of Kremlin messages.

In 2023, Russian officials made fifteen "red lines" statements and 2 threats against decision-making centers. This marked a stark decline from the previous year when they mentioned "red lines" 24 times and threated to attack decision-making centers 13 times.

These are just some of them:

Feb 24, 2022: Putin issues a stern warning to the West during his address on the Ukraine conflict, cautioning against any intervention..

"Whoever tries to prevent us, and even more so to create threats to our country, to our people, should know that Russia's response will be immediate and will lead you to consequences that you have never faced in your history," Putin said.

Apr 27, 2022: In a meeting with the Council of Legislators, Putin reiterates his warnings against external interference.

"I would like to emphasize once again: if someone intends to interfere in the events taking place from the outside and creates threats of a strategic nature unacceptable to Russia, they should know that our retaliatory strikes will be lightning fast. We have all the tools for this, such as no one can boast of now. And we will not brag, we will use them if necessary.."

Jun 3, 2022: Crimea's head, Sergey Aksenov, responds to strikes on Crimea with a vow to target decision-making centers in Kyiv, promising deep consequences.

Sep 21, 2022: In an address on Russia's mobilization, Putin once again highlights Russia's nuclear arsenal and red lines, warning against threats to territorial integrity.

"Nuclear blackmail was also used. I would like to remind those who make such statements about Russia that our country also has various means of destruction, and if the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. This is not a bluff.."

Oct 19, 2022: After the sham referendum and annexation of four Ukrainian regions in Sept. 2022, Ramzan Kadyrov writes: "Now, even if one bullet flies towards Russia, it is necessary not just to hit the decision-making centers, but to wipe them off the face of the earth so that there is no wet spot left from this fascist-Bandera junta. I think so - the fish rots from the head, so you need to start from the tops."

Jun 20, 2023: Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu outlines immediate retaliatory strikes on Ukrainian decision-making centers, including Crimea, in case if HIMARS or Storm Shadow missiles attack Russian territory.

While many of Russia's declared "red lines" have been crossed, including drone and missile attacks on Russian territory and incursions by saboteurs, the war continues without the kind of massive escalation initially implied by the threats