ANALYSIS: Why The US's New Speaker of the House is Bad News For Ukraine

For the past three weeks, the US has dealt with the chaos of not having a Speaker of the House of Representatives after Rep. Kevin McCarthy was ousted, by his own party, largely for backing Ukraine assistance, a coup which was supported by every single democratic member of congress. 

Without a Speaker, Congress cannot vote on any legislation, including on Democrat President Joe Biden's "urgent' initiatives to send assistance to Ukraine and Israel.

However, as of Tuesday, a new Speaker has been chosen: Congressman Mike Johnson. Johnson, an attorney from Louisiana, is an outspoken MAGA Republican, a supporter of President Donald Trump who believes that the 2020 Presidential elections were illegally falsified to prevent Trump's re-election. 

On the matter of Ukraine, Johnson's views are well known.

Though when the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, Johnson expressed strong support "for the Ukrainian people," and voted in favor of the initial Lend Lease Act, he subsequently voted against Ukraine in all six House votes to give assistance to Ukraine.

This past August, Johnson wrote on X: "Bribery is specifically listed as one of the three causes for impeachment in our Constitution. Viktor Shokin [a former Ukrainian prosecutor] believes Joe Biden engaged in bribery to cover his son’s corrupt dealings in Ukraine. And we believe it, too. We WILL get to the bottom of this."

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In February, Johnson questioned if the "Ukrainian government is being entirely forthcoming and transparent about the use of this massive sum of taxpayer resources."

Earlier the same month, Johnson referred to Biden's trip to Kyiv as being "a staggering disregard for the first priorities of his own country," continuing that Biden was "Shunning the people of East Palestine, OH," where a natural disaster had just taken place by "visiting Ukraine to promise endless amounts of American taxpayer dollars," something he considered to be "a terrible mistake."

Polling shows that a majority of Republicans oppose additional aid for Ukraine. Johnson, who represents  strongly Republican Louisiana Congressional District 4, meaning that Johnson need not fear being beaten by a more balanced, pro-Ukraine candidate from the left, as 60% of voters will vote for him.

In such a strongly partisan district, this means that the only risk that Johnson runs is being outdone, by a right-wing candidate, in the primaries.

To avoid this, Johnson wins by being as far right as possible. 

Given the Republican's strong opposition to Pres. Joe Biden, as the US Presidential Elections are little more than a year away, it is unlikely that Johnson will allow the House of Representatives to vote on the aid package for Ukraine that Biden has requested.

In the calculation of many Republicans, obstructing Biden from being able to realize his plans will count against the President, something they hope will give Republicans an electoral advantage.

As one Washington insider told Kyiv Post, if perhaps Johnson would allow a vote on Ukraine, "the last guy [Kevin McCarthy] got fired for a floor vote on Ukraine," so if the new Speaker allows a Ukraine vote  to go to the floor and "it passes with more D votes than R votes," then Johnson "gets fired as Speaker."