US President Donald J. Trump relegated Ukraine and the world’s biggest and bloodiest conflict since World War Two to near-footnote status in a Tuesday speech to Congress – and what he did say was short on specifics and, at times, stemming from factual errors.
The roughly hour-and-40-minute address set a new record for a Presidential speech to Congress, beating out Bill Clinton’s State of the Union address on Jan. 23, 2000, at 1 hour and 28 minutes.
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An unofficial count put the number of individual words in the speech at 9,665. Trump jumped from subject to subject and meandered at times, but, a reasonable estimate of words devoted to Russia, Ukraine or US foreign policy affecting those states was about 500, Kyiv Post researchers found.
A full text transcript of the speech is here.
Trump’s remarks broken down:
- The Trump administration policy on world oil prices – probably the single most critical point of economic leverage on Russian capacity to make war on Ukraine – is contradictory.
What he said: Trump repeated his refrain “drill baby drill” to call for greater US production. Simultaneously, he doubled down on bigger tariffs on Canadian exports to the US, the most valuable component of which overwhelmingly is oil.
What it meant: It’s not clear. Those policies might push international prices higher or lower. Higher prices are better for Russian exports and the Russian economy. In markets on Wednesday, oil prices stayed flat or trended slightly downwards.
- The Trump administration plans a tariff war with the EU and, on April 2, will invoke reciprocal tariffs.
What he said: “(O)ther nations charge us tremendously higher tariffs than we charge them.
A Sober Look at the State of Ukraine’s Peace Negotiations
It’s very unfair… On April 2, reciprocal tariffs kick in, and whatever they tariff us, other countries, we will tariff them. That’s reciprocal, back and forth.”
What it meant: If the US goes through on the threat, then the EU economy will suffer from reduced exports to the US. However, inevitable EU retaliation and a trade war would strengthen anti-American public opinion on the continent, and probably make it easier to approve greater support for Ukraine by European states.
- Trump’s formal position on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is that the Kremlin took advantage of US weaknesses.
What he said: “(W)hen Putin saw [the botched US exit from Afghanistan], I guess he said, ‘Wow, maybe this is my chance.’”
What it meant: This may be a subtle Trump message to the Kremlin that the Trump administration will not condone Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But it also could just be a throwaway line.
- Trump repeated statistics about the war in Ukraine that are demonstrably false and then proceeded to argue US policy based on those bad numbers.
What he said: “Millions of Ukrainians and Russians have been killed… The US has sent hundreds of billions of dollars to support Ukraine’s defense with no security, no anything… Biden has authorized more money in this fight than Europe has spent by billions and billions of dollars… Come on, let’s equalize. You’ve got to be equal to us. That didn’t happen.”
Background: Although Trump has repeated these claims for more than a year, these figures are widely acknowledged to be wrong.
All reasonable estimates of human loss during the war range between 800,000 and 1.8 million killed, but in no case “millions.”
Independent researchers using the US government’s own numbers put the value of US assistance to Ukraine at around $115 billion, or up to $180 billion if money spent on deploying US troops to Eastern Europe and refitting munitions factories in the US were to be counted as US support benefiting the Ukrainian war effort.
Independent researchers place non-US support to Ukraine at around $140 billion currently with another $120 billion promised.
If European payments to support Ukrainian war refugees are considered part of European support to Ukraine, then the current value of European support to Ukraine stands at around $205 billion, or close to twice US money and resources that have reached Ukraine.
For support from the US to be “equalized” with Europe’s, per Trump’s demand, the US would have to nearly double its support to Ukraine.
Trump has been called out for making unsubstantiated claims about US support to Ukraine relative to Europe by dozens of reporters and even French President Emmanuel Macron. Trump has not offered evidence supporting his claims.
As regards to transparency, the Ukrainian government has placed most of the data relevant to US arms support to Ukraine online and supported US inspectors in Ukraine for years.
What it meant: Future US assistance to Ukraine, were the Trump administration to deliver it, would be highly unreliable and inevitably subject to arbitrary negotiation tactics and political manipulation. US policy towards Ukraine will be driven by rhetoric and domestic messaging, not facts.
- Trump pushed the argument that both Russia and Ukraine are ready for a peace agreement.
What he said: “Earlier today I received an important letter from President Zelensky of Ukraine… Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer… Nobody wants peace more than the Ukrainians… (W)e’ve had serious discussions with Russia. Then I’ve received strong signals that they are ready for peace.”Background: Although all the conflicts are too numerous to list here, both Kyiv and Moscow are on the record in diametric opposition on critical peace terms.
Among them are the presence or absence of foreign peacekeepers on Ukrainian territory, whether Russian takeover of Ukrainian territory should be legitimized or criminalized, and whether or not Ukraine would receive hard security guarantees against future Russian invasion.
What it meant: Trump’s declaration that both sides “want peace” seems almost certainly to be salesmanship ignoring the massive and possibly unbridgeable gap between the Ukrainian and Russian positions.
- Trump had the opportunity to identify Russia as a state that kidnaps US citizens as hostages, and he glossed over it. The US President instead discussed Marc Fogal, a Pennsylvania native sent to prison in Russia on false pretenses.
What Trump said: “A history teacher named Marc Fogel was detained in Russia and sentenced to 14 years in a penal colony. Tough stuff.”
Background: Trump did not mention that in exchange for Fogal the Kremlin received Russian national Alexander Vinnik, former operator of one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges.
In May 2024, he pleaded guilty to $9 billion in a money laundering conspiracy linked to the Russian government. Some Ukrainian news media have identified him as a Kremlin spy.
What it meant: By most measures, trading a school teacher for a cryptocurrency expert would count as a solid negotiating win for Russia.
- Trump dropped another fat hint US defense policy is going to be inward-looking, and America’s allies had better fend for themselves.
What Trump said: “I am asking Congress to fund a state-of-the-art golden dome missile defense shield to protect our homeland – all made in the USA”
What it meant: Long term, were an effective missile shield to be erected in the US, then the critical component of US participation in NATO, Russian nuclear strikes would inevitably be retaliated against with US nuclear strikes – would become questionable and possibly pointless.
Short term, Trump’s declaration about the intent to erect a missile defense network in the US is another signal to both Russia and Europe that the American nuclear deterrent component of its NATO commitment is no longer rock-solid.
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