It was just over a year ago that Yevgeny Prigozhin declared his doomed march on Moscow. As the world looked on in surprise, many found themselves paradoxically wishing for his success. Yet, the sudden end to his hostilities towards the Russian establishment serves as a stark reminder that things in Russia are seldom as they seem. One must be cautious not to take the machinations of Russian actors at face value.
The recent revelation by Oleg Deripaska, an oligarch and Kremlin insider, to Japanese media that the war in Ukraine will have no winner and must be brought to an end, will undoubtedly spark a flurry of opinion pieces. Many of these are sure to speculate on the possible rifts within the Kremlin and a change of heart among Russia's elites. However, it is more important than ever to look beyond the headlines. In this case, a close reading of Deripaska's full comments reveals a different story.
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Deripaska's considerable, ill-gotten wealth and influence within Russia's political and economic spheres are difficult to overlook. His rise in the business world was significantly bolstered by his stake in the aluminum industry, as the owner of Rusal, one of the world's largest aluminum producers.
His friendship with the Kremlin and intimate relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin have facilitated his business operations and expansions, affording him significant leverage and protection at various levels of government. This alignment with Putin’s interests has also drawn significant international sanctions, particularly from the US and the EU.
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Bearing this in mind, it is crucial to consider the entirety of what Deripaska said to the Japanese journalists. He asserted that while Western sanctions have been painful, they will not lead to a policy change by the Russian government, and that Russian businesses have resisted and must find new partners.
These are not the words of someone seeking to distance himself from the Kremlin. There is no criticism of Putin or the war. Instead, this is a reworded Kremlin line: that Western sanctions are harming the people of Russia, and that Russia must continue to seek influence elsewhere, particularly in the regions known as the Global South.
Moreover, it is important to draw a parallel to the echo chamber that is being created from the perceived two sides of the Russian political barricades. The recently released Russian opposition figures quickly turned their focus to the easing of sanctions and negotiations with Putin, making such statements mere minutes into their first press conference after the US-backed prisoner exchange. Some also notably declined to offer even verbal support for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).
Why Russia is promoting a false ‘Plan B’
The ongoing Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region is a significant concern for the Russian leadership. While the Kremlin spares little thought for those caught up in the fighting, the Ukraine-Russia border is much less heavily defended than the front lines within Ukraine. A sustained and large-scale offensive in this region could have considerable consequences. While the Kremlin managed to recover from Prigozhin's march, it is doubtful they would survive a march on Moscow led by President Volodymyr Zelensky.
It is no secret that the supply of conventional weapons is a problem for Russia. Without this shortage, we would not be witnessing the utterly humiliating trips by the Kremlin's occupant to North Korea. The widely held belief that Iran saved Russia in Ukraine through the provision of drones and other weapons cannot help but also damage Russia's prestige both domestically and abroad.
The Kremlin’s long game, pacing themselves for a potential Trump victory in the US elections, while fueling a large-scale war in the Middle East, may not be as beneficial to Russia as originally hoped. There remains hope for a continued democratic hold on the White House come the November election, even if the situation may sour afterward.
As such, a Plan B must be put in place. This plan would involve showing a desire by the Kremlin to negotiate, even if it comes through unofficial sources, and cultivating a willingness among the apparent Russian opposition to support these plans. All of this, however, occurs under the strict understanding that the Kremlin remains unyielding in its original plan: to seize Ukrainian lands and subjugate the millions of Ukrainians living on them.
While Putin might put on a farcical display of negotiations, we must remain aware that he cannot afford anything less than an outcome that can be spun as a victory in Ukraine. Those who call for the easing of sanctions, negotiations, or a reduction in support for Ukraine’s military victory are simply ignoring the illegal actions of Russia and the continued daily attacks on civilians in Ukraine.
As the war drags on, it is crucial to maintain a clear-eyed understanding of Russia's tactics. Any suggestion that Russia's elite, including figures like Deripaska, are softening in their stance must be viewed with deep skepticism. Their words, carefully crafted to serve the Kremlin's interests, are not a sign of genuine dissent but rather another strategy in Russia's long game of power and influence.
While there may be whispers of change within the Russian establishment, these should not be mistaken for genuine calls for peace or reform. The West must remain vigilant, continuing to support Ukraine's fight for sovereignty while recognizing the true nature of the forces at play in Moscow. The stakes are too high to be swayed by the false hopes and misleading statements emanating from the Kremlin's corridors.
The views expressed are the author’s and not necessarily of Kyiv Post.
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