Ukraine has stunned the world with its resilience to Russian aggression over the last ten years, especially since the all-out invasion of February 2022.
Provided the West stands firmly behind Ukraine, it looks highly unlikely that Vladimir Putin will be able to conquer Ukraine militarily. That would mean Ukrainian statehood is here to stay and, while still fighting a brutal war, its government needs to think about the long-term perspective of the country that has suffered so much.
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Demography is among the key priorities. Why? In 1992 Ukraine had 52 million people. No one knows the exact number now, but Ukraine currently has roughly 30 million people – and the population is rapidly aging.
In 1983 there were 807,000 babies born in Ukraine but in 2023, a year into the all-out war, the number was 187,000 – a staggering drop of 77 percent. Even before the Russian invasion of February 2022, Ukraine had the fastest-shrinking population in the world due to a low birth rate, decades of emigration, and labor outflow.
During 2021, before the full-scale invasion, there were 272,000 births and 714,000 deaths, including the Covid mortality spike. That year the daily natural loss in Ukraine was a staggering total of 1,200 people.
Add the emigration from the country, the war losses particularly since 2022, millions of refugees, and a low fertility rate and you get a perfect storm of population loss and record low births.
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Demography, birth rate, and population trends affect everything – from the economy, taxes, the workforce, and pension systems, to closing schools, emptying villages, shrinking small towns, and losing long-term competitiveness.
The Government of Ukraine was right to publish a draft document earlier this year called “Demographic Development Strategy of Ukraine until 2040”. So, what can be done?
First, demography needs to be strategic, bipartisan issue for the future of the country. It must be on the table of the President and the Government every month, for many years. At the moment the war effort and defense are the main priorities for the whole country, but demography needs to be among the top issues too.
Establishing a demography and human capital ministry should be considered. South Korea, Japan, Greece, Croatia, Italy, and the EU Commission all established such ministries or agencies in recent years.
Secondly, Ukraine needs a serious economic strategy, both now and after the war is over. Once peace returns, there will be millions of Ukrainians, who currently reside in the West, considering a return to their homeland. If there is no momentum in Ukraine’s reconstruction and economic recovery, they may visit Ukraine but will probably leave again – this time without plans for any return. Additionally, they may pull their remaining family members, including the demobilized men who stayed in Ukraine during the war.
Start-ups, tax-free zones, investment parks, IT incentives, free trade agreements, EU funds, US support, IMF and World Bank – everything is needed. Ukraine needs a robust economy to stop the brain drain. It needs programs similar to the Marshall Plan that helped Europe after the Second World War
Thirdly, the country needs a big housing program, especially for young families. Publicly funded housing projects are not possible now due to limited financial resources. In time, the Government needs to operate a program for plots of land (400 – 500 square meters) for young couples in the suburbs, with a vision for them to build their own homes.
Homeownership plays an important role in starting a family, including parenthood. Having access to affordable and stable housing will play a role in young people’s cost-benefit analysis of whether or not to return to Ukraine
Ukraine cannot give high salaries like EU, UK, US or other Western countries, but it can offer opportunities back home to its young people that they will not get anywhere abroad. Instead of paying rent abroad for years, where four to five young people rent the same apartment without owning a home, Ukraine should offer “parcels,” heavily subsidized plots of land, where young couples can build their future in their homeland.
Fourth, Ukraine needs both financial incentives and tax breaks for large families with children, especially for families with three or more children. The mothers, children, and families need every possible support, including free schoolbooks.
Ukraine’s budget is challenged by the brutal war expenses caused by Russian aggression, but supporting children is an investment in the future. There is no country without people, and there is no future without children and young people.
Everything related to child raising should have the smallest possible tax: from nappies and buggies to baby food and family cars, such as seven-seater vehicles. Big families deserve big support, together with the widows, orphans, wounded soldiers, and internally displaced refugees.
Fifth, Ukraine should increase the number of places available in kindergartens, balancing work and parenting. Building new kindergartens takes years and costs a great deal. The solution is repurposing school space into kindergartens, both in the cities and the rural areas. Such adaptations are relatively easy, taking only two to four months. This a much better prospect than building new pre-schools; it’s cheaper and faster.
Furthermore, Ukraine should prepare a large number of return-home programs once the servicemen and women are demobilized, including back-to-work projects, vocational training, counselling, PTSP support groups, and the like. These soldiers should get every possible support once they return from the front and start again with their civilian lives.
The older servicemen and women will return to their families and the younger ones will start their own families. Sometimes the “home front” is equally difficult for these courageous men and women, once they return from the battlefront and the trenches.
Baby boom can be expected after the war, just like in the US, UK, and Europe after the Second World War but it should not be just a short-term increase for just two to three years. What is needed is a plan and policies that will make Ukraine competitive and viable in the long term. A demographic strategy needs to be implemented, regardless of when the war ends because life needs to go on
The war is going on, but the economy has not stopped because the people need salaries. The schools have not closed, because the children need an education. Agriculture has not stopped, because the people need food. It’s the same with demography and births: they need to continue, even during the war.
Demography, young people, and a vibrant population are a big part of the country’s future. You can’t rebuild a country and maintain its economy just with pensioners. There is a real need for young people willing to build their future in their own country.
The biggest victory against death and destruction is when a newborn baby opens its eyes and starts breathing: life needs to win over death. Ukraine should not just survive but the country also needs to live and thrive.
After all these years of suffering, Ukrainian people deserve that.
Reprinted from ConservativeHome.com. See the original here.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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