OPINION: Ukraine Isn’t Getting Nuclear Weapons – But It Could Develop Another WMD

As Ukraine weighs nuclear weapons options, LENR technology presents a potential path to powerful weapons with a deterrence effect without violating international treaties.      

On Oct. 17 Zelensky once again discussed the possibility of Ukraine becoming nuclear again, referring to the failure of the Budapest Memorandum to ensure Ukraine’s security.

While this is a fair assessment of the effectiveness of the memorandum, we need to note that while Russia violated this document, the US and UK, as written in Article 4 of the agreement, sought immediate actions from the UNSC, by that, fulfilling their legal obligations.

The Budapest memorandum has never been able to guarantee security for Ukraine.

Additionally, even this gross violation of the international law doesn’t allow Ukraine to develop a nuke, since this matter is regulated by the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which was signed and ratified by Ukraine.

One more thing that is quite often omitted, is that Ukraine has never had actual control over the nuclear weapons, instead Moscow kept all the codes and operational control of the nukes in Ukraine (similar to current Belarus).

There may be an argument that “if Ukraine has its own nuke, it won’t need Western support” and even more “Ukraine is our ally so why not?”

The problem with such thinking is a possibility of a domino effect. If Ukraine violates non-proliferation norm and builds its own nuclear arsenal, then why is it that other US allies as well as adversaries cannot? Also, what would stop Russia placing its nukes in Iran and Venezuela, as it did with Belarus?

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Assuming that Ukraine still decides to build a nuke, one may anticipate an immediate reaction from the West.

Such a reaction would include halting support and even sanctions, as a result making Ukraine unable to wage war and subsequently losing to Russia. Overall, the idea of rebuilding the Ukrainian nuclear arsenal is an easy solution to a complex issue. But such policies often lead to unpredictable and unpleasant results.

However, theoretically, Ukraine still can build capabilities for deterrence without violating any existing treaties – and it is actually closer to this goal than a lot of people may think.

Back in the early 2000s there was a private experimental laboratory, “Proton-21,” not far from Kyiv. There Ukrainian scientists were conducting experiments on low-energy nuclear reactions (LENR).

While still in the nascent phase, LENR technologies present an opportunity for Ukraine to ensure its security.

A number of intelligence and other agencies including the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) demonstrated their interest in LENR.

In a House Armed Services Committee report, we can find that the DIA stated: “if LENR works, it will be a disruptive technology that could revolutionize energy production and storage. However, what is even more important, is that it has the potential to create controlled explosions of destructive force.

It is also argued that LENR can be an efficient source of clean energy that is potentially even more than 4,000 times more efficient than chemical sources of power. Additionally, it can be used for the management of nuclear waste and the synthesis and transmutation of chemical elements.

There are two problems with LENR at the moment. The first is its acceptability in the scientific community, since currently there is a lack of understanding of the physics governing LENR processes. The second is that it still will take years to make it suitable for defense purposes.

The first problem can be addressed by continuing research on the matter and in the cooperation of scientists from various laboratories (and perhaps states) in order to achieve the necessary results. The second problem can be solved by significant governmental investments and the simultaneous development of systems that would deliver a LENR-powered system.

The idea of Ukraine going after a nuke is unwise since the consequences of this action would be catastrophic for it.

However, investing in LENR technology that potentially can be used for both security and civil purposes, while not being restricted, presents an opportunity for creating an arsenal of weapons that will be as efficient in deterrence as as nuclear options.

The views expressed are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post