With the announcement of the US presidential election results, social media predictably erupted in drama, particularly concerning Ukraine’s future. Many experts and journalists have been convinced that Donald Trump’s presidency would spell disaster for Ukraine. However, the reality is far more sober than social media drama: neither candidate offered a clear win for Ukraine.
Having closely followed both campaigns, I noted that Trump’s clearest stance on Ukraine was his call to “end the war.” Many interpreted this as a veiled call for capitulation, but the truth is more nuanced. That message resonates deeply with a less vocal group of Ukrainians – those enduring daily bombardments, whose lives have been reduced to an unending cycle of destruction since Russia’s full-scale invasion.
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A year ago, the New York Times wrote that Ukraine would inevitably face a difficult choice: preserve its people or its territories. Three years into this war, with closed borders, a collapsing economy, and an exodus of citizens, this observation has only grown more poignant. Our national discourse remains fixated on territorial gains as the ultimate measure of victory, while the true battle is for the survival of the Ukrainian nation itself.
Ukraine grows weaker each day under the relentless strain of this war. That’s why we need consistency, commitment, and a clear-eyed understanding of the reality here at home.
Calls to pause the war, even temporarily, to preserve the nation are often dismissed as naive, typically by those far from the frontlines. Critics argue, “Putin will attack again.” This rationale, however, seems to demand that we justify staggering human losses and the potential extinction of Ukraine on the basis of a hypothetical future threat. In essence: die now to avoid possibly dying later.
What Happens to Ukraine Now After Trump’s Victory? Ceding Territories, Probably
A purely military solution has never been a viable path to victory for Ukraine, even with unlimited Western financial and military support. This is not a critique of our armed forces – our soldiers, both professional and civilian, have shown extraordinary bravery and resilience in defending democracy against Russian tyranny. However, we must confront the sobering reality: the cost of this war is steadily eroding the very foundation of the Ukrainian nation.
Who is more naive? Me, who speaks with people across Ukraine and receives their messages of urgency, or those who draw conclusions from TikTok and Twitter, clinging to official statements? Naivety can be dangerous. It can cost lives – thousands of them in our case.
Do I believe Donald Trump will or can end the war? I have no idea. What I do know is that in the highest offices of Western politicians and diplomats, discussions of a ceasefire have been ongoing for a long time. A ceasefire, however imperfect, may be the best we can hope for in the near term.
During a ceasefire, we could build the fortifications we failed to construct before the invasion and cannot erect now under constant shelling. We could partially restore our fragile, collapsing economy. We could reopen our borders, hold elections, and demonstrate to the world that we have preserved the democracy for which we’ve been fighting. There is so much more we must rebuild to safeguard our human capital – healthcare, education, and infrastructure. A ceasefire would also give us the breathing room to strengthen our military, continuing its training and preparation. If Putin were to attack again, we would be far better prepared, standing on firmer ground than we are now in this exhausting war of attrition.
On the matter of our territories: since the failed counteroffensive of 2023, Ukraine has not had a realistic chance to reclaim the land. No amount of support on Twitter will change that. In fact, we have lost more territory in recent months – around 478 square kilometers (184 square miles) between August and September alone – than during the entirety of 2023.
This isn’t solely the West’s fault. If they didn’t care, they wouldn’t have provided the immense support we received in 2022 and 2023. But the hard truth remains: regaining our territories will require time, strategic patience, and a combination of military strength and diplomatic savvy.
For now, Ukraine grows weaker each day under the relentless strain of this war. That’s why we need consistency, commitment, and a clear-eyed understanding of the reality here at home. Dramatic rhetoric will not help us persevere. We must approach the choices of the American people – and the global community – with cool minds and open hearts.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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