OPINION: French Policy Playing Into Iranian and Russian Hands

French authorities are not putting their money where their mouths are.

“Politically, it was decided at the beginning of 2024 that this aid [for Ukraine] could reach €3 billion. In reality, we will be above €2 billion but not at €3 billion,” French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu said recently.

The French have a knack for making promises and have turned it into an art form – a political tool that allows them to create the appearance of active engagement in multiple regions around the world.

In February 2024, Emmanuel Macron had pledged €3 billion to Ukraine.

This generous statement followed reports highlighting that, to put it mildly, Paris lags behind other European powers, which tend to promise less but deliver more. Critics have pointed out that France’s contributions are relatively modest, particularly when it comes to heavy weaponry.

According to data from the Kiel Institute for World Economics, Poland has provided Ukraine with €4.5 billion since the start of the war—the same amount as France. Lecornu explains that the economic situation is dire; France’s budget deficit is expected to hit 6% of GDP, leaving the government scrambling to cut costs.

Poland’s deficit is expected to reach 5.7%, but nobody sees them crying. 

One might argue that counting another country’s money is unseemly, but the fact remains that Paris has made commitments, and breaking these during a time of war results not just in financial losses but in thousands of lives lost.

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This is far from the first instance in which Paris has let down Ukraine and all of Europe. Despite fervent statements supporting sanctions against the aggressor, in 2024, France has continued to import Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG), with reports indicating a significant increase in these imports.

In the first half of 2024 alone, France imported €1.2 billion worth of Russian LNG, representing a 28% increase compared to the same period in the previous year.

This surge has raised concerns about Europe’s dependency on Russian energy sources amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Additionally, analyses have shown that shipments of Russian LNG to France more than doubled in the first half of 2024, highlighting the complexities in Europe’s energy diversification efforts.

Notably, while France increased its imports of Russian LNG, it simultaneously reduced purchases from other suppliers, such as the United States, Angola, Cameroon, Egypt, and Nigeria. According to the analysis, this reduction almost matched the uptick in Russian LNG imports. LNG shipments from these other countries remained unaffected by the recent Red Sea attacks. Pricing data for Russian LNG aren’t published, but Russian LNG typically sells at a slight discount, as some buyers consistently avoid purchasing from Russia.

The additional gas isn’t being utilized by French households or industry, as demand in France declined by 9% in the first half of this year compared to the previous year. Instead, France’s pipeline exports of gas to Belgium increased by nearly 10% during the same period, according to data from Kpler. It remains unclear, however, how much of these exports consisted of Russian LNG. But it is a reasonable assumption that France is profiting from this trade.

An unusual situation is also developing around the arms France has committed to supplying Ukraine. First, there’s the curious case of the Mirage jets, which France sold to Serbia – a country with no pressing military conflicts.

But even more notable is the case of the Caesar self-propelled howitzers. Paris has pledged to deliver 12 of these to Ukraine, financed through frozen Russian funds. Given that nearly €1.5 billion remains in frozen accounts, why only 12? The answer appears to be that France has chosen to sell 36 additional howitzers to Armenia, a country preparing to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan.

Each howitzer is priced at about €6 million, leaving Armenia with a bill of approximately €216 million. This is a substantial expenditure, especially considering Armenia’s total defense budget of only €1.3 billion. Further complicating matters, Armenia is also purchasing about half a billion worth of arms from Iran – the very same Iran that aids Russia in its destruction of Ukraine, supplying missiles and drones, some of which have reached the Russian army through the airport in Yerevan.

Why do the interests of Iran and France converge in Armenia? Why are they actively arming it? As noted by numerous European analysts, both Tehran and Paris have an interest in undermining peace agreements in the South Caucasus.

“Why is Paris interested in sending weapons to Armenia, which, according to numerous publications in the West, is a hub for circumventing sanctions for Iran and Russia? For centuries, France has viewed the Southern Caucasus as a geopolitical battleground, vying for influence there against the Ottoman Empire, the British Empire, Russia, and later Turkey. Macron, whose country generates 80% of its electricity from nuclear reactors, has little concern that Azerbaijan is a significant source of natural gas and, in the future, electricity for the EU,” writes the American analytical journal Townhall.

For Iran, drawing secular Azerbaijan into a conflict – whom it regards as “Israel’s foothold in the Caucasus” – is a strategic advantage. Tehran’s doctrine of merging three conflicts into one (the Middle Eastern, Caucasian, and Russo-Ukrainian) allows it to amplify its influence across these regions, inflicting harm on the “collective West” and Israel simultaneously.

In terms of Israel, the interests of France and Iran align closely in Lebanon as well. Paris, still seemingly considering Lebanon its protectorate, coordinates with Tehran – whose proxy terrorist organization, Hezbollah, has nearly taken over the south of the country – on joint ceasefire negotiations.

Iran supplies Hezbollah directly, while France sends weapons (which Ukraine needs) to the Lebanese army, arms that end up in Hezbollah’s hands. Essentially, Iran finds itself in a double-win position, and France, which frequently clashes with Israel, doesn’t suffer losses in this arrangement either.

Interestingly, French experts in military and intelligence recently noted that Israel’s covert collaboration with Ukrainian intelligence “gives Moscow the willies.”

 “Exchanges of strategic intelligence, transfers of anti-drone technology: Ukrainian and Israeli services have started talking to each other in a rapprochement their allies had long hoped for. Each side has assets the other can use against their respective long-standing enemies, Russia and Iran,” stated the respected journal Intelligence Online last month.

In summary, it’s disappointing to note that among those who publicly proclaim their commitment to Ukraine’s victory, there are some who are either playing a double game or simply advancing their own agenda.

France is a clear example of such a player, whose interests diverge from those of Ukraine and its genuine partners.

The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.