ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 30, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Kremlin newswire TASS published an interview with Valdai Discussion Club Research Director Fyodor Lukyanov on January 30 entitled “Don’t count on big agreements,” highlighting the Kremlin’s ongoing efforts to shape domestic and global expectations about future negotiations between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump.
• Lukyanov stated during the interview that the “main thing” for future peace negotiations regarding Ukraine is “not the territories” but addressing the “root causes” of the war, which Lukyanov defined as NATO’s expansion into Eastern Europe in the 1990s and early 2000s.
• Lukyanov’s statements assume that Trump and his administration are weak and more susceptible to being intimidated by the Kremlin’s shows of force than the former Biden Administration.
• People’s Republic of China (PRC)-based companies continue to supply Russia with critical materials needed to sustain Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine.
• The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) adopted a resolution on January 28 defining its position on peace in Ukraine, closely echoing the principle of “peace through strength” that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky previously outlined.
• The US military reportedly recently transferred Patriot missiles from Israel to Poland and is expected to deliver these missiles to Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Kharkiv and Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Kurakhove and in the Dnipro direction.

Authors: Christina Harward, Angelica Evans, Nate Trotter, William Runkel, and Frederick W. Kagan.

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