OPINION: Is Europe Really This Stupid?

Interesting to wake up to an FT report saying that Europe is considering a return to Russian gas supply as part of a Ukraine peace deal.

God give me strength, surely Europe, and the EU particularly cannot be this stupid.

Let’s just rewind 3.5 years to mid-2021 and after years of appeasement and selling out to Russia, Europe has found itself hugely over dependent on Russian gas and energy supply and then subject to blatant blackmail by Putin’s regime turning off the gas taps, creating an energy crisis in Europe to blackmail Europe over Ukraine.

If the reports are accurate, and at face value this is an absolute gift for Putin, and Trump.

Putin gets the prospect of a return to the annual €50 billion European gas ticket he was earning before the full-scale invasion and sanctions, he is given back the leverage again over Europe as well.

Trump can claim this is another example of Europe free riding on the U.S. security backstop while all the time looking to cut deals with Russia. So, Europe cannot be trusted. Fair point.

I would expect that Trump responds by threatening sanctions on the EU to concentrate minds and keep the route clear for US LNG exports to Europe.

I am hoping here that some clever backers of Ukraine in the EU are playing some subterfuge in a game of deception.

Hear me out.

So only last week Orban in Hungary and Fico in Slovakia were threatening to block the rollover of EU sanctions on Russia unless the issue of gas transit/security was put back on the table. Both want a resumption of Russian gas supply.

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Well, it was - hence the FT piece. But perhaps the assumption by those sneaky folks in the EU is Trump in effect comes in and vetoes the whole plan, shafting in the process his own buddy, Orban. The EU can say to Orban/Fico “sorry, we tried, go and talk to your buddy Trump and see if he will sacrifice US LNG sales so you can buy gas from Russia and bankroll Putin.”

Result - sanctions rollover, while Orban and Fico are shafted by Trump, in a grand game of double cross. Ukraine ends up the winner.

Reprinted from the author’s tashecon blog. See the original here.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.