OPINION: Riyadh Talks Were More About Replacing Zelensky Rather Than Peace

On Tuesday, Feb. 18, diplomats from Moscow and Washington’s sat around the table in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, to discuss a “peace plan” for Ukraine, without Ukraine being at the table.

The key figures in these talks were Marco Rubio, U.S. Secretary of State; Mike Waltz, National Security Advisor to President Donald Trump; and Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East.

Representing Russia were Sergey Lavrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs; Yuri Ushakov, the Kremlin’s chief foreign policy advisor; and Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund.

The 4.5-hour discussion did not seem to result in any concrete results. The primary topics included the restoration of diplomatic relations between Moscow and Washington, the formation of a high-level negotiation team to advance peace talks, economic and geopolitical cooperation, security guarantees and territorial considerations.

Yet, out of everything discussed, one topic stood out: the need for elections in Ukraine. Soon after the meeting ended, talk on the subject began circulating. US President Donald Trump claimed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s popularity had plummeted to 4% and suggested that Ukraine must hold elections as part of a peace deal.

The sudden emergence of the elections narrative after the talks is no coincidence. If Zelensky refuses the proposed peace deal, Washington and Moscow may try to push him out of the discussion altogether, declaring him ineligible to negotiate on behalf of his country, and demand Kyiv installs a leader more willing to accept a settlement on their terms.

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Something big might be unfolding

 Zelensky’s presidential term officially ended in May 2024. However, due to martial law imposed because of the war, Ukraine’s constitution does not allow elections, which makes sense. With part of the population on the front lines, many in exile, and the majority living in fear, holding elections under these conditions would be both chaotic and risky.

But that might be the whole point. If Zelensky rejects the US-Russia peace deal - despite the fact that the law forbidding elections in war time was written into the country’s constitution in 2015, under the previous president Petro Poroshenko - Washington and Moscow could use this situation to declare him an illegitimate leader who no longer represents Ukraine.

The decision to exclude Ukrainian officials from the first serious talks since the invasion was not an accident. It was a signal. If Kyiv refuses to accept the deal, this is how it will look: Washington and Moscow deciding Ukraine’s future without Ukraine at the table.

Speaking to reporters at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, the American president placed the blame for the war on Ukraine, arguing that Zelensky could have prevented the conflict by conceding parts of Ukrainian territory to Russia.

“I think I have the power to end this war, and I think it’s going very well. But today I heard, ‘Oh we weren’t invited.’ Well, you’ve been there for three years, you should have ended it three years [ago]. You should have never started it. You could have made a deal,” he said.

If Zelensky rejects the Trump-Putin peace deal – what then?

The likely next step: push for elections. Moscow and Washington could argue that Ukraine needs a “democratically elected” leader to sign a peace deal. Of course, wartime elections are chaotic and risky. But that might be the point. Moscow would likely agree to a ceasefire not for peace, but to justify holding elections.

But what if Zelensky wins reelection?

If elections are pushed, it won’t be just about the vote. It will be about who is positioned to win. Moscow and Washington are likely to back figures critical of Zelensky and open to negotiations. Here are the key figures who could benefit from a forced election:

• Oleksiy Arestovych – Former Zelensky advisor turned critic. With military intelligence experience, media influence, and growing support, he could be a Kremlin-Washington-friendly candidate if elections are forced.

• Dmytro Razumkov – Former Speaker of Parliament, ousted after clashing with Zelensky over executive overreach. His moderate stance and political influence make him a potential compromise candidate for both Washington and Moscow.

• Viktor Medvedchuk – A Kremlin ally with a history of pro-Russian activities, Medvedchuk remains politically toxic in Ukraine. His past treason charges make him an unlikely option, as any attempt to install him would face intense public and Western resistance.

If elections do happen, Kyiv must expect attempts to exert heavy external influence. Russia could manipulate results in occupied regions through voter suppression or staged referendums, while Trump might pressure US allies to push Ukraine toward holding elections under unfavorable conditions.

The goal being a new president, carefully positioned to legitimize a deal that recognizes Russian-occupied territories and moves Ukraine away from its NATO aspirations.

This isn’t just speculation. Trump has already called for elections in Ukraine. The fact that Kyiv was excluded from the Riyadh talks signals that major decisions about Ukraine’s future are likely to be made without Ukraine at the table.

If Zelensky refuses the proposed deal, expect internal pressure as well. Western-backed figures could start calling for his resignation. Protests? Political shake-ups? Ukraine’s real battle might not just be on the frontlines. It could be unfolding in Kyiv itself.

This also puts Europe in a difficult position. Will they stand by Zelensky against a Trump-Putin push for new leadership? If the EU resists, it could trigger a major geopolitical rift between Europe and the US.

What’s the bottom line?

The Riyadh talks weren’t really about Ukraine’s peace. They may have been about Ukraine’s leadership. Watch how fast the “Ukraine needs elections” narrative gains momentum. This isn’t about democracy. It’s about control.

Keep a close eye on this. If elections are forced, Zelensky might soon be fighting for his presidency as much as Ukraine is fighting for its sovereignty.

The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.