CIA Director John Ratcliffe confirmed that the United States halted intelligence sharing with Ukraine this week.
Speaking on Fox News, he said that the pause is “on the military front and the intelligence front” but did not provide additional details.
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National Security Adviser to the White House Michael Waltz said the “pause” was done after a “reassessment” of US-Ukrainian relations.
Later, also speaking on Fox News, Waltz said that the pause on intelligence and military aid could be lifted if Russia and Ukraine agree to peace talks, per AP.
“The US will continue to suspend weapon supplies and intelligence sharing with Ukraine until a date for peace talks with Russia is set,” Waltz said.
Two different anonymous sources told the Washington Post conflicting information on what information was still being shared. One said that only intelligence for “force protection,” that is, Ukraine’s military sites, was still being provided.
Another said that exceptions were made related to “self-defense,” which could be “force protection” or include information on the targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructure. Malcontent News could not independently verify either claim.
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Reports that the end of intel sharing would prevent Ukraine’s use of High Mobility Rocket Artillery Systems (HIMARS) were partially inaccurate: Ukrainian troops trained to use the M142 Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS – HIMARS) and M270 and MARS Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) program each 227mm rocket in the field using the onboard Fire Control System (FCS). The M30 and M31 munitions do not require any US Department of Defense input, intelligence, or authorization.
In contrast, the MGM-140 ATACMS tactical ballistic missile is dependent on US Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition, and Reconnaissance (ISTAR) for programming.
This is why Washington resisted sending ATACMS missiles to Ukraine for over two years, with Russia calling their deployment a “redline.” Without the ISTAR information from the US, tactical ballistic missiles can’t be used.
However, there is a twist.
Russia is weakened after years of war
Ukraine has likely exhausted its MGM-140 inventory. Even if former US Vice President Kamala Harris had won the 2024 election, it was very unlikely that Ukraine would get more ATACMS. Production ended in 2007, restricting available inventory.
Republican leadership in the US Congress blocked an attempt to add money to the Pentagon budget in 2023 that would have funded the production of 1,700 new tactical missiles.
There may be quiet dissent within the Republican party. Congressman and Ranking Member of the House Intelligence Committee, Jim Himes (D-CT), used the official Twitter (also known as X) to post a call to restore intelligence support immediately:
Today, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and CIA Director John Ratcliffe publicly acknowledged that President Trump’s ‘pause’ on assistance to Ukraine includes intelligence sharing.
As Ranking Member of the Intelligence Committee, I have observed how critical our intelligence relationship with our Ukrainian partners has been in holding the line against Russia’s relentless and brutal offensive. It has saved the lives of Ukrainian servicemembers and civilians alike.
The pause on providing materiel to Ukraine against Putin’s aggression is unconscionable on its own, but the idea that we will now withhold life-saving intelligence from Ukrainians who are fighting and dying is unforgivable. Any pause in intelligence sharing must end immediately.
While a Democrat wrote the statement, its posting on the official House Intelligence Committee “X” feed suggests that Republican leadership agreed with it.
There is no question that the loss of intelligence information from the US will have an impact on the battlefield, Ukraine’s ability to conduct deep strikes on some targets, and will increase civilian casualties.
However, Russia is no longer capable of carrying out sustained missile attacks like it did in 2022, regardless of Ukrainian air defense capabilities.
Today, Russia is producing cruise and ballistic missiles on a just-in-time basis.
The biggest threats will be the Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) and its North Korean Kn-23 counterpart, the Iskander-K ballistic cruise missile, the Kh-22/23 anti-ship cruise missile, which uses a ballistic trajectory in its terminal phase, and the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal air-to-ground ballistic missile.
The biggest risk to Ukraine and the rest of Europe is continued Russian strikes on Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure. If the power grid were to collapse, there is a non-trivial risk of a significant nuclear accident at any of Ukraine’s nuclear sites, including the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
Washington is destroying decades of trust
Beyond Ukraine, the new US policy of total self-interest without even a trace of realpolitik sent more shockwaves through its traditional allies in Europe, the Middle East, and the Asia Pacific.
At least two countries – Italy and India – are reportedly reconsidering signing deals with US defense contractors. Other nations, such as France, have said aloud that Europe now needs to consider a future without US support.
In 2022, Switzerland eroded trust in its defense industry by refusing to provide Germany with 35mm rounds for the Flakpanzer Gepard self-propelled antiaircraft gun and parts for other weapon systems. That decision has since affected Swiss defense companies, which have lost contracts. The Swiss government blocked the sale on the grounds of “neutrality” in armed conflict.
Investors may already be voting with their wallets. Since Donald Trump became president, Lockheed Martin has fallen 10%, and Northrop Grumman has dropped 6%.
In contrast, Rheinmetall ADR, based in Germany, is up almost 75%, Thales SA, based in France, is up over 73%, and BAE Systems PLC, based in the UK, is up almost 40%.
While using metrics that boil down to geopolitics and dollars and cents is cold when compared to the invaluable nature of human life, it is a more tangible measurement for most people.
In Malcontent’s final assessment, we believe that many analysts are underestimating the potential long-term damage to the US defense industry. Foreign sales provide the dollars for future research and development of next-generation systems. Washington is gambling with its massive advantage in foreign military sales, which helps fuel its technological superiority.
No bucks? No Buck Rodgers.
Reprinted with permission from the substack of Malcontent News – Where the Truth Matters.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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