As the war enters another critical phase, Ukraine faces a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape. The pause in US military aid, the prospect of sanctions relief for Russia, and divisions within Europe present both challenges and opportunities.
Ukraine’s strategy must now be built on three key pillars: military resilience, diplomatic leverage, and economic sustainability. Kyiv must ensure that it dictates the terms of engagement—on the battlefield, in negotiations, and in long-term security agreements.
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US-Russia Normalization: A Direct Challenge to Ukraine
The potential for US-Russia normalization, signaled by Washington’s discussions on sanctions relief, poses a direct challenge to Ukraine’s position. If Moscow gains economic breathing room, it will be able to finance and sustain its war effort for longer, making a battlefield victory more difficult.
Ukraine must counter this by pushing European allies to impose secondary sanctions, preventing Russian businesses from accessing EU markets and financial institutions. At the same time, Kyiv must work with key US lawmakers to ensure that any lifting of sanctions is conditional on verifiable Russian de-escalation, not political convenience.
Keeping US Support Alive: Congress Remains Key
Despite President Donald Trump’s shift in policy, Congress remains a critical force in maintaining US support. Ukraine must strengthen its engagement with bipartisan allies in the Senate and House of Representatives, ensuring that military and financial assistance stays on the legislative agenda.
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In particular, Ukraine should target key committees such as the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the House Armed Services Committee, where lawmakers remain committed to countering Russian aggression. Engaging directly with US defense industry leaders is also crucial – framing aid to Ukraine as beneficial not just for global security, but for American jobs and the US defense sector.
European Support: A Necessary but Risky Reliance
With Washington’s stance uncertain, Europe is now Ukraine’s primary defense and financial backer, but relying on European support alone carries risks. The EU is politically divided on Ukraine aid, and while the UK, Poland, and France have pledged continued support, other nations – notably Hungary and Slovakia – are resistant.
Kyiv must navigate this reality by focusing on bilateral agreements with its strongest allies, including the UK, France, Germany, and Poland. These countries have both the military capacity and political will to provide sustained military assistance outside the EU’s slow bureaucratic processes.
NATO’s Role: Ukraine’s Security Beyond the Battlefield
NATO remains a critical factor in Ukraine’s defense strategy. Although Ukraine is not a member, many NATO countries see Ukraine’s survival as directly linked to their own security.
The Baltic states, Poland, and Eastern European NATO members have been among the strongest advocates for deeper NATO engagement in supporting Ukraine’s military efforts. Their proximity to Russia and historical experiences with Soviet occupation make them some of Kyiv’s most reliable partners within the alliance.
To reinforce Ukraine’s security and deter further Russian aggression, Kyiv must push for a NATO-backed security umbrella over western Ukraine. This would provide an additional layer of protection, discouraging Moscow from escalating beyond its current warfront. While full NATO membership remains unlikely, securing long-term military commitments from the alliance will ensure that Ukraine remains a strategic partner beyond the immediate conflict. This could involve expanded intelligence-sharing, logistical support, and permanent military assistance programs.
Economic Sustainability: A New Front in Ukraine’s War Effort
Military aid alone will not sustain Ukraine indefinitely. Kyiv must shift from an aid-dependent model to a self-sustaining defense economy, ensuring that it can continue resisting Russian aggression even if external military assistance slows. This transition is crucial not only for Ukraine’s immediate war effort but also for its long-term security and economic stability.
One of the key priorities is expanding domestic weapons production. Ukraine has a strong industrial base and a history of arms manufacturing, but investment in modern defense technology and greater private-sector involvement is needed to scale up production. Kyiv should also seek joint production agreements with European arms manufacturers, ensuring that critical military supplies are produced within Ukraine rather than relying solely on foreign deliveries.
To sustain war-time expenditures, Ukraine must also strengthen taxation policies that secure necessary defense funding without overburdening civilians. A well-structured war economy will require careful balancing of revenue generation, foreign loans, and controlled inflation, ensuring that the country remains financially stable while prioritizing its military needs.
Russia is not on the verge of collapse, but neither is it in a position of unchecked strength. Ukraine must prepare for a prolonged struggle for security and sovereignty, while shaping the conditions for a just and lasting peace – one that ensures territorial integrity, stability, and the right to self-determination, rather than legitimizing Russian aggression.
This requires securing immediate bilateral defense agreements, reinforcing diplomatic alliances, and strengthening long-term economic resilience. Kyiv must act decisively – ensuring that its military preparedness, economic strategy, and diplomatic engagement position Ukraine to negotiate peace from strength, rather than be forced into compromise.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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