OPINION: Behind Trump’s Ukraine Policy Lies China – And That’s a Big Problem

Throughout history, great powers have often traded away smaller nations in pursuit of strategic realignments. Today, we may be witnessing another such moment.  Donald Trump’s rush to end the war in Ukraine is not about peace; it’s about repositioning the West for what he sees as the true geopolitical struggle of the 21st century: the fight against China.

For Trump, Russia is a distraction; China is the true adversary. He believes Europe is too preoccupied with Putin and must shift to countering Beijing. A quick settlement in Ukraine, even if it forces Kyiv into big concessions, would, in his view, free up Western resources for this larger struggle.

But this is a dangerous illusion. Weakening Ukraine will not weaken China, it will embolden both Moscow and Beijing, proving that military aggression pays. If Trump pushes a deal on Ukraine, it won’t strengthen the West. It will fracture it, leaving both Europe and the global order more vulnerable than ever.

The question now is not just what happens to Ukraine – but what kind of world the West is willing to accept.

Ending the Russo-Ukraine War to focus on China

Donald Trump has never explicitly stated that China is his top foreign policy priority over Russia. But his actions speak louder than words. His approach to global affairs has long been shaped by an “America First” vision, and in that vision, China stands as the greatest economic and strategic rival to US dominance.

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Throughout both of his presidencies, Trump has consistently framed China as the greater challenge. He imposed continuous tariffs, accused Beijing of unfair economic practices, and declared China a “threat to the world” in 2019. Meanwhile, his stance on Russia has been more ambiguous: sometimes confrontational, sometimes conciliatory. While his administration’s official documents, like the 2017 National Security Strategy, labeled both Russia and China as revisionist powers, Trump himself never framed them as equal threats. Instead, his rhetoric and policies suggest a belief that Russia is a secondary concern, perhaps even a potential partner in the larger effort to contain China.

This logic helps explain Trump’s urgency to settle the war in Ukraine, even if it means forcing Kyiv into painful concessions. He sees Europe as too distracted, too invested in a fight against Moscow when, in his view, Beijing is the true long-term danger. A prolonged war in Ukraine means Western military resources, economic aid, and political focus remain fixed on Russia, leaving the US to bear the cost of countering China alone. By bringing the war to a quick end, Trump hopes to shift NATO’s attention away from Russia and toward Beijing, forcing Europe to align with his broader strategic agenda.

But his ambitions go beyond just changing Europe’s priorities. Trump also believes that appeasing Putin could loosen Russia’s growing ties with China. Since the invasion of Ukraine, Beijing and Moscow have deepened their economic and military cooperation, forming what many see as an emerging anti-Western bloc. Trump, always a dealmaker, appears to believe he can exploit this by offering Putin something he desperately wants, an end to Western military support for Ukraine, in exchange for reducing Russia’s reliance on Beijing. His idea is that by securing a settlement in Ukraine, he can also weaken the Russia-China axis.

But this is a dangerous miscalculation. There is little reason to believe that Putin, having gained Ukrainian territory through force, would suddenly distance himself from China. The reality is that Russia’s partnership with Beijing is driven not just by necessity, but by shared hostility toward the Western-led order. Even if Trump hands Putin an easy victory in Ukraine, it will not be enough to break the bonds that tie Moscow and Beijing together. Instead, it will prove to autocrats everywhere that military aggression is rewarded, and that the West, under Trump, is willing to abandon allies when it suits its interests.

Why this is a huge risk for Ukraine and Europe

Trump’s push for a quick settlement in Ukraine carries an existential threat not just for Ukraine, but for the entire European security order. By forcing Kyiv into painful concessions, Trump wouldn’t be ending the war. He’d be legitimizing Putin’s aggression, undermining NATO, and leaving Europe more vulnerable than ever. It would send a clear message: invasions work, and the West will eventually fold. The lesson wouldn’t just be absorbed by Moscow. Other authoritarian regimes, particularly China, would take note. If Putin can win over Ukraine through force and diplomacy, why wouldn’t Beijing assume it could do the same to Taiwan?

Even if Trump pressures Ukraine into an agreement, what guarantees would it actually provide? Would Russia honor a deal, or simply use the ceasefire to regroup, rearm, and invade again in a few years?

History suggests the latter. After all, Ukraine already made a major concession to Russia once before. In 1994, under the Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal in exchange for security assurances from the US, the UK, and, crucially, Russia itself. Two decades later, Putin violated that agreement, annexing Crimea and launching the full-scale invasion in 2022. Why should anyone believe that this time would be different?

Donald Trump has long viewed NATO as an outdated burden, repeatedly criticizing member states for not meeting their defense spending targets. His rhetoric has escalated, with him openly suggesting that the US might not defend NATO allies who fail to pay their “fair share,” even implying that he would encourage Russian aggression against them.

If Trump forces a settlement in Ukraine, it is likely to come with pressure on Europe to reduce military aid, weakening both Ukraine’s defenses and NATO’s credibility. His 2024 remarks about abandoning allies who don’t meet spending goals reinforce fears that his second term could see the US scaling back its commitments or even withdrawing from the alliance altogether.

Such a move would leave Europe scrambling to secure its own defense. Some nations may rush to rearm, while others could seek alternative security arrangements, including, in a worst-case scenario, direct negotiations with Moscow. A fragmented NATO would be a dream scenario for Putin, who has long sought to divide and weaken the alliance. If Trump’s push for a Ukraine settlement accelerates NATO’s decline, it won’t just be a shift in policy, it will be a fundamental restructuring of Europe’s security landscape, with consequences that could last for decades.

How this could backfire for Trump and the West

If Trump forces Ukraine into a settlement that rewards Russian aggression, it will send a dangerous signal to China that the US does not reliably stand by its allies. Beijing is already escalating its rhetoric, with its defense ministry recently warning that Taiwan’s pursuit of independence would lead to “destruction” and reaffirming that war is inevitable unless the island submits to Chinese rule. If Trump weakens Western unity by sidelining Ukraine, Xi Jinping may see it as the perfect moment to test US resolve in the Pacific. A hurried Ukraine settlement could have far-reaching consequences, convincing China that Washington lacks the political will to defend Taiwan, thereby increasing the likelihood of conflict in Asia.

At the same time, Trump’s belief that Europe will automatically follow his lead on China is a miscalculation. Many European countries do not view Beijing as their primary threat, Russia remains their main concern. Forcing Ukraine into concessions won’t shift European priorities overnight, and if Trump pressures NATO allies too hard, whether by reducing US security commitments or threatening tariffs, he risks pushing some European nations toward alternative security and economic arrangements, possibly even with China itself. Instead of consolidating the West against Beijing, Trump’s approach could fracture it, handing a strategic victory to both China and Russia.

Ukraine and Europe Must Not Surrender to Trump’s Strategy

Trump’s vision for a new world order is clear: end the war in Ukraine, appease Putin, and force Europe to follow America’s pivot to China. But this is not a strategy for strength; it is a reckless gamble that endangers Ukraine, weakens NATO, and emboldens the very autocrats he claims to counter. If Ukraine is forced into concessions now, it will not mark the end of war; it will set the stage for future conflicts, where borders are rewritten by force, and Western security guarantees crumble under pressure.

Europe cannot afford to be a passive player in Trump’s geopolitical game. Instead of bending to his demands, it must reaffirm its commitment to Ukraine, reinforce its own security, and reject the false choice between countering Russia and confronting China.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.