Ukraine is at an existential crossroads. President Donald Trump’s war on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky shows no signs of abating.
Kyiv, as a result, is facing a stark choice. Capitulate to Trump – and by extension Russian President Vladimir Putin – or pivot toward building a European coalition of the willing to continue fighting on to expel the Russian invader.
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Europe is increasingly the better option. The European Union heads of state unanimously approved an €800 billion “ReArm Europe Plan” – and France’s offer to provide the EU with a nuclear umbrella alongside a proposal called “Sky Shield” to enforce a no-fly zone in Western Ukraine are gaining momentum.
Opting for Europe over the US is not without risk. As evidenced by Team Trump suspending military aid and intelligence sharing, the implications on the battlefield are all too real and immediate.
Yet sticking with Trump is no longer a sure bet either. While Trump says that he “likes Zelensky personally,” his actions reflect a different reality.
As Mafia boss Michael Corleone told his brother Sonny in the 1972 film The Godfather, “It’s not personal, it’s strictly business.” And this, for Trump, is business.
In the world of high-stakes geopolitics and international diplomacy, personal sentiments often take a backseat to strategic interests and national priorities.
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Not here.
Trump carries a personal bias – conscious or not – against Zelensky. It stems from the fallout over the “perfect” phone call that eventually led to Trump’s first impeachment.
During that conversation, Trump suggested “future US military support for Ukraine might be contingent on [Zelensky] helping investigate the business dealings [in Ukraine] of Hunter Biden.” Despite Zelensky defending Trump by insisting he faced “no blackmail,” it devolved into guilt by association.
Transcending Trump’s ill-will was made all the harder as a result of Zelensky clashing with the president and Vice President JD Vance in the Oval Office. It also made it easier for Team Trump to move past Ukraine.
Just as the Trump Administration is aggressively focused on undoing everything former President Joe Biden put into place during his one term in office. Now, that clearly also includes ending Biden’s policy of “supporting Ukraine for as long as it takes.”
Ukraine could become Trump’s Afghanistan – and his legacy.
From Trump’s perspective, the rate of return has not been nearly enough to justify continued US investment in Ukraine.
Team Kyiv needs to understand what they are up against. Trump narrowly views US national security from a business transaction perspective.
What is the rate of return? From his perspective, it has not been nearly enough to justify continued investment.
Trump sees Ukraine as a money pit, an endless war that is draining the US Treasury. Money he thinks would be better spent on domestic issues: illegal immigration, spiraling criminal and gang activity, and the influx of fentanyl into the country.
Hence Trump insisting on the $1 trillion rare earth minerals deal with Ukraine that ended up being left unsigned.
By walking away, Zelensky made it easy for Trump to pivot to Putin. Already, Trump sees Russia as a potential business partner due to its vast natural resources and strategic access to the Northern Sea Route. He envisions a series of deals and transactions with Russia that could benefit the US economically and geopolitically.
However, Zelensky’s resistance to Russian aggression blocks the way ahead. Trump sees Zelensky as an obstructionist who hinders his path to peace and subsequent economic opportunities with Russia.
Trump’s resulting crackdown on Ukraine is brutal. To begin advancing his agenda, Team Trump immediately began taking measures to discredit and delegitimize Zelensky on the world stage and in Ukraine.
It began with Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressing doubt over “whether [Zelensky] wants to forge a peace agreement to end the war in Eastern Europe.” Then Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) piled on calling for “Zelensky to resign or be dismissed.”
The campaign culminated with Trump declaring on X, “I have determined that President Zelensky is not ready for Peace.”
Then all hell broke loose.
A few days earlier the Trump Administration had voted against a Ukraine-sponsored United Nations General Assembly resolution condemning Russia’s war against Ukraine. Team Trump began echoing Russian demands for Ukrainian elections while arbitrarily ceasing offensive US cyber activities against Russia.
Contrary to Trump’s assertion, Ukraine does have cards to play.
After the Oval Office fiasco, the White House turned off the intelligence-sharing with Kyiv and blocked Ukrainian access to satellite imagery from Maxar Technologies. Trump is also considering revoking temporary protections for thousands of Ukrainian refugees in the US.
Trump’s irrational disdain for Zelensky puts Ukrainian civilians and soldiers on the front lines defending their country at risk. Russia continues to strike residential neighborhoods and critical energy infrastructure with ballistic missiles and drones.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian troops in the Kursk Oblast are trying to contain a Russian advance to prevent a partial or complete encirclement. While on the front lines in the Donbas, relentless Russian “human wave” assaults, often with previously wounded and disabled soldiers leading the way, results in over 1,000 soldiers being killed or wounded everyday – 882,950 as of March 7.
Increasingly, it is evident that Team Trump’s path to a peace plan is not in Ukraine’s best interest. Rather, it appears designed to get Putin to the negotiation table.
Trump’s scorn for Zelensky is only getting worse. On Friday during an Oval Office press spray, Trump said that he is “finding it more difficult… to deal with Ukraine.” Adding that it may be “easier to deal with Russia.”
Zelensky is clearly the odd man out in this three-way drama. Team Trump is doing everything they can to make that happen and accommodate Putin – at the expense of Ukraine.
To reverse course, Zelensky and his generals might well need to call Trump’s repeated bluff that either Ukraine accepts in effect what would be a Washington-Moscow dictated peace agreement or “I’m out.”
Turning to Europe would be the most expedient way of doing that. It would leave Trump on the outside looking in. Not only in terms of future EU expenditures on “ReArm Europe” weapons and munitions, but also Europe bagging the $1 trillion REM deal.
Contrary to Trump’s assertion, Ukraine does have cards to play. And Europe, increasingly, is willing to deal.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the authors’ and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
Copyright 2025. Jonathan E. Sweet and Mark C. Toth. All rights reserved.
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