Let’s imagine a hypothetical, very fictional conversation between Yermak and Witkoff in Riyadh.
Yermak - ok Stevie, what exactly do you want from Ukraine to bring an end to the Russian war of aggression on Ukraine?
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Witkoff - agreement to an immediate ceasefire, and we would like you to hold fresh presidential elections over the next few months prior to finalisation of a permanent deal.
In terms of the permanent deal we think it would be great if you showed goodwill to Putin by giving him all the territory in Ukraine he currently occupies, plus you withdraw from Kursk in Russia.
Yermak - Territory Russia illegally occupies. And what do we get?
Witkoff - legality is just so subjective.
In any event you get an end to the fighting, so saving the lives of all those beautiful young Ukrainian soldiers. Trump has had plenty of those young Ukrainians in his beauty pageants. He takes an extra special interest. And you also get the right to sign this huge minerals deal with us.
Yermak - that minerals deal where we sign 50% of our minerals wealth to you but get nothing in return?
Witkoff - come on Andrei (Russian spelling) you are not being serious about peace. Come to the party. By having US investors invested in Ukraine, under the Trump presidency, that is a cast iron assurance that Putin will not attack again. We give you this business security assurance. Our personal assurance, better than that the personal assurance of Donald J Trump.
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Yermak - but Stevie, US businesses were invested in Ukraine in Trump 1.0, between 2016 and 2020 and we still got attacked as Putin failed to honour Minsk related ceasefires 20-odd times with thousands of Ukrainians dying then. They were also invested in 2022 and it did not stop Russia invading.
Witkoff - but Trump and me have such good relations with Putin and his oligarch pals that they assured us they will honour this deal.
Yermak - do you know what the Budapest Memorandum is?
Witkoff - Was that the oath of allegiance given by Orban to Trump in the 2024 election campaign?
Yermak - no, this was the agreement we reached with Russia, the U.S., the U.K. China and France where we stupidly gave up our huge nuclear arsenal in 1994 in exchange for $2.5bn and an assurance from those powers that our territorial integrity would be upheld. Not only did the U.S., France, the U.K., and China not do anything when we were invaded by our neighbour, but Russia actually invaded us. So excuse us for not trusting Russia at all and wanting something more cast iron in terms of security assurances than a lease tenancy agreement from a U.S. burger joint.
Witkoff - lol, well that was stupid. Relying on a paper contract, you need leverage.
Yermak - to not quote your ex president, “fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me”. I think he struggled with this quote.
You know, Trump seems to like rogue nuclear states, like North Korea, maybe we should use all our nuclear and ballistic missile expertise and create a nuclear weapon, we could do that in six months. Then our own nuclear deterrent would be our own security guarantee.
Witkoff - we never thought of that, let me get back to you.
Yermak - going back to this minerals deal, you know that international companies need security before they invest. We have seen little international investment along the conflict line since the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and then the first Russian invasion in the same year. Why would anyone invest now?
Witkoff - we never thought about that, let me get back to the boss.
Yermak - and on elections, you know under our constitution we cannot hold elections while we are in a state of war, with martial law and mobilisation. To hold elections we will have to lift martial law and end mobilisation. If people don’t feel secure - and there are no security guarantees for Ukraine - that likely means all our beautiful young Ukrainian soldiers will flee the frontline and country. Russia will exploit that and push to retake more territory and even Kyiv. The population will flee, mass out-migration to Europe. Russia will take control of the whole country and there will be labour shortages and you will not be able to find qualified staff to man your minerals project.
Witkoff - we did not realise that, let me get back to the boss.
But that said, Russia will control Ukraine, right? Well that’s actually what the boss wants. He thinks if we gift Ukraine to Putin then he will be Trump’s best friend against China. And then Russia and the U.S. can share the minerals resource wealth of Ukraine. We can just cross out the word “Ukraine” and insert the word “Russia” into the minerals document with both taking a 50% share. Job done. And the boss really wants Vlad to like him.
Yermak - you know Russia has a track record of ethnic cleansing in Ukraine? 8 million Ukrainians were killed by Stalin in the 1930s. And then there was Bucha.
Witkoff - History is so overstated, let’s put the past behind us and look at the great things we are doing in the Middle East. People need to be more flexible - we can move people out and then we can clear things up and maybe Putin will let them back in. They need to see the big picture. Mar a Lviv, sorry Mar a Lvov, don’t want to upset Vlad now do we. In any event I hear Siberia is very nice this time of year. The former foreign policy chief of the EC Kallas’ family were moved there by Stalin and look she did well for herself, albeit the boss does not like Europe very much.
Yermak - ok, going back to elections, so in this deal we get nothing of what we want, Putin gets everything and you then want my boss to go to early presidential elections. How do you think that will go down with the electorate?
Witkoff - well if Zelensky is not willing to do all this then hold elections and let’s get a new president who will deliver our plan.
Yermak - do you know opinion polls show Zelensky is the most popular politician, polling 40-odd percent and the next is the former head of the armed forces, Zaluzhnyi, who is even more hard core then Zelensky - who as a mother Russian speaker was elected on a peace with Russia platform in 2019. And no Russia leaning candidate polls more than low single digits. If we hold elections either Zelensky gets a stronger mandate or someone less willing to deal with Russia will be elected. Zelensky is your best bet for peace here.
Witkoff - that’s unhelpful, but is that a Rasmussen poll? They make beautiful polls.
Yermak - ok, we came all this way to Riyadh to meet you, my boss has sent an apology to Trump for doing absolutely nothing wrong in the Oval Office but our European friends told us we are just doing what they have all done already - kissed the ring. So can we now have military supplies and intelligence restored?
Witkoff - no, we have a carrot and stick approach here. You guys get the stick and Putin gets the carrot. In negotiations it’s about spotting your opponents weak points. Oops, did I say “opponents” Freudian slip there - that’s actually the Europeans. Do you know they are banning good guys, like Georgescu in Romania in running in elections? But you get the drift. You guys are clearly the vulnerable here, and you are fighting for these so outdated Western values of democracy, free speech and rule of law. Did you guys not get the memo - these things are so woke. Man, you guys are fighting on the wrong side. Just accept your place under Russian kleptocratic rule and everything will be just fine.
Yermak - you realise that we were run by oligarchs via kleptocratic state capture between independence and 2014, and it meant our GDP underperformed our peers by two thirds. Our population were downtrodden by greedy Russian oriented oligarchs and stayed poor and society had high inequality. People aspired to something different, the European vision, and there were two popular, grass roots revolutions which removed two Moscow centric governments.
Witkoff - how very democratic, so outdated. We prefer the term autocratic CEO to kleptocrat. Think Central Asia, the Gulf, and well, Russia, we are reforming the USA with a similar model in mind. The Russians are offering their “political technologies” to help us change electoral rules, use social media to ensure elections are much better managed. The Russians already have lots of experience in the USA from 2016, Brexit the same year, in Romania and Germany this past year.
Reprinted from the author’s tashecon blog. See the original here.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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