The world is at a point of changing epochs. Old systems are still inert and new systems are still emerging. Drones of all kinds are replacing the usual heavy weapons, and satellite communications and surveillance systems are becoming the basis for successful military operations. Defense alliances are also no exception and will soon begin to undergo metamorphosis.
First of all, this concerns NATO. Let’s be frank, the Alliance has been virtually incapacitated for the last 10 years. This has become evident only now, when it is facing real challenges to European security.
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The structure of the bloc was initially two-tiered. The upper level was the “nuclear umbrella” provided by the United States. The lower level was the armed forces of the member states. At the peak of the confrontation between the capitalist West and the communist East in the 1980s, the army of the Federal Republic of Germany (West Germany) had more than 600,000 soldiers and a huge amount of heavy equipment. The US provided only an additional military contingent in Europe of up to 200,000 soldiers. With the end of the Cold War, the concept of NATO changed. The US began to provide both nuclear and conventional levels. Moreover, the disarmament of Europe was part of the agreements with the USSR authorities, in exchange for the painless unification of Germany.
But already the first military conflicts of the 21st century showed the fallacy and vulnerability of the new concept. Remote “presence” without reliance on strong regional armies does not lead to success. There are plenty of examples in recent history. Russia knocked France out of the Sahel region of Africa, the US escaped from Afghanistan. At the same time, Turkey, relying on Syrian rebel forces and ensuring their coordination and support, easily brought down the regime of dictator Bashar al-Assad.
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NATO’s problem is primarily the degradation of European armies and the EU defense industry. With the de facto withdrawal of the US from European security, Europe is faced with the realization of its defenselessness against threats from the Russian Federation. The current composition of NATO is incapable not only of repelling external invasion, but also of simply coordinating its actions, due to internal contradictions. It is better not to even check the functionality of Article 5. And the war unleashed by the Russian Federation in Ukraine has convincingly proved that the conventional level of the armed forces was greatly underestimated in the conditions of taboo on the use of nuclear arsenals.
Therefore, NATO reform, or its reincarnation in the form of regional defense blocs with a new structure, awaits us:
- A global player with a nuclear arsenal, advanced technology and a network of satellites in orbit that can offer access to this in exchange for respecting its interests in the region.
- A regional leader who is willing to take responsibility for controlled territory and bear the cost of a strong military in the region.
- Defense bloc member states that have delegated security matters to the regional leader.
Under this arrangement, the participation of global players with their own military contingents in the region’s defense system is no longer a prerequisite. Nor is it desirable. No world hegemon can bear such an economic burden. Proved by the Soviet Union in the 20th century and the United States in the 21st. Moreover, as we have already learned, without reliance on local armed forces, the scheme does not work.
The process is already underway. Friedrich Merz, the winner of the federal elections in Germany, said that after Donald Trump’s statements it became clear that this government in the United States does not really care about the fate of Europe and called his priority to strengthen Europe and achieve its independence from the United States. At the same time, he noted that he does not know whether the leaders of the countries that make up the Alliance at the NATO summit in June will talk “about NATO in its current form, or whether we will have to create an independent European defense force much faster.”
Ukraine in this system may well become the leader of the European alliance, which will unite around it the rest of the countries directly threatened by Russian expansion. In addition to having the strongest army on the continent, Ukraine has successful experience in conducting military operations using drones. The only question is who will be the global player in this alliance.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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