Trump’s policy towards Ukraine, Europe, and NATO has become one of the main topics of public debate in Poland. The ongoing reset in relations with Russia, the suspension of aid to Ukraine, and promises to leave Europe to fend for itself are sources of significant concern.
Yet the presence of US troops in Poland may actually increase while their numbers in Europe simultaneously decrease, Polish government officials familiar with the matter told Kyiv Post.
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For several years, Poland has systematically increased its defense capabilities and is one of the largest suppliers of military equipment to Ukraine, which is defending itself.
Defense spending at around 5% of GDP is just the beginning. On Friday, March 7, Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced a debate on acquiring nuclear weapons in collaboration with France, the potential withdrawal from conventions prohibiting the use of landmines and cluster munitions, as well as mass military training for men.
In Warsaw, the prevailing belief is: “If you want peace, prepare for war.”
Washington is one of Warsaw’s key partners – Poland invests in F-35s, HIMARS launchers, Apache helicopters, and Abrams tanks, but America’s credibility as a partner and ally is increasingly being questioned.
Elon Musk’s comments about the possibility of turning off Starlink service for the Ukrainian military, have sparked much concern. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Digitization Krzysztof Gawkowski, as well as Minister of Foreign Affairs Radosław Sikorski commented on his remarks. Poland purchased the Starlink system commercially and shared it with Ukraine.
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Poland’s trust in the US is declining, and rebuilding that trust will be difficult.
More Americans in Poland?
The US withdrawal from Europe is not a new phenomenon, but it is causing increasing controversy due to the ever-growing threat from Russia.
British newspaper The Telegraph reports that Trump is considering relocating US troops from Germany to Hungary, despite the fact that Hungary spends around 2% of its GDP on defense. This should come as no surprise, as Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Trump are political allies.
Kyiv Post sources also report that advanced discussions are underway regarding increasing the number of American troops in Poland. Poland’s 5% GDP spending on defense is generating enthusiasm in Washington, with media reports suggesting that Trump plans to revise the US presence in NATO and offer guarantees to those who invest in defense.
Such a decision could be announced during the 10-year anniversary summit of the Three Seas Initiative, which will take place on April 28-29 in Warsaw. The event will coincide with the end of President Andrzej Duda’s second term in office, and he will be keen to end it on a high note, with high-ranking guests, including President Trump, in attendance.
Increasing America’s military presence in Poland would certainly be beneficial in many aspects, but it could also lull the political class into complacency and serve as Washington’s response to growing criticism.
From Europe’s perspective, however, the overall balance would be negative, with the US planning to reduce the number of troops in Europe. Trump’s unpredictability plays an unfavorable role here, as his decisions are increasingly pro-Russian, which is evident from the enthusiastic reactions from the Kremlin.
Regardless of what the future holds, the decisions of the US administration have significantly undermined America’s credibility as an ally, which has traditionally been communicated as a sacred value.
Europe, both as a whole and as individual countries, is becoming increasingly aware that it must rely on itself when it comes to security. It is progressively understanding that its own interests lie in continuing support for Ukraine politically and militarily, arming itself, and investing in its defense sectors and innovation.
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