- On 21 September 2022, Russia’s Putin announced a ‘partial mobilisation’ to support operations in Ukraine. Russian Defence Minister Shoigu later confirmed this would involve the mobilisation of 300,000 reservist troops.
- Russia is likely to struggle with the logistical and administrative challenges of even mustering the 300,000 personnel. It will probably attempt to stand up new formations with many of these troops, which are unlikely to be combat effective for months.
- Even this limited mobilisation is likely to be highly unpopular with parts of the Russian population. Putin is accepting considerable political risk in the hope of generating much needed combat power.
- The move is effectively an admission that Russia has exhausted its supply of willing volunteers to fight in Ukraine.
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The Russian Defense Ministry’s 2045 plan sees the dismantling and division of Ukrainian territory to secure a pro-Russian global political outcome, according to Kyiv Post sources.
Nov. 21