ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 23, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff referred to the early 2022 Istanbul protocols as offering “guideposts” for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on February 23. An agreement based on those protocols would be a capitulation document.
• Ukraine is unlikely to accept any peace agreement based on the Istanbul negotiations as such terms are effectively a full Ukrainian surrender to Russia’s long-term war goals.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to demonstrate his commitment to preserving Ukraine’s democracy and a just resolution to the war.
• Ukrainian officials continue to highlight Ukraine’s domestic defense industry and domestically produced strike capabilities.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) CEO Kirill Dmitriev as Special Presidential Representative for Investment and Economic Cooperation with Foreign Countries on February 23.
• Russian forces launched a record number of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of February 22 to 23, ahead of the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24.
• Russia appears to be relying more on Iran and North Korea to support its war in Ukraine.
• Russian forces continue to execute Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in clear violation of international law.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka.
• The Russian government continues efforts to increase its defense industrial output.

Authors: Nicole Wolkov, Angelica Evans, Olivia Gibson, Davit Gasparyan, and Frederick W. Kagan with Nate Trotter and William Runkel.

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