Kyiv Post Morning Memo – Everything You Need to Know on Tuesday, April 11

Good morning from a sunny, but still chilly, capital. The heating season has already finished so warm bed socks are still needed.

 What’s happening today?

 The day is likely to bring further discussion and fresh developments regarding apparent intelligence leaks from the U.S. Department of Defense, including on Ukraine’s military strategies. Every day, more classified information is coming to light.

 CNN’s review of 53 leaked classified Pentagon documents revealed that the U.S. has been spying on President Volodymyr Zelensky, fearing Kyiv might strike Russia's territory if Washington provided Ukraine with long-range missiles.

 Thus, during one intercepted meeting in late February, Zelensky “suggested striking Russian deployment locations in Russia’s Rostov Oblast” using combat drones, since Ukraine does not have long-range missiles capable of reaching that far. 

 Other leaked documents indicate that Egypt, one of America’s closest allies in the Middle East and a major recipient of U.S. aid, planned to supply rockets to Russia, the Washington Post reported in its latest publication.

 Egypt’s President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi allegedly ordered production of 40,000 rockets for Russia in February and instructed officials to keep production and shipment secret “to avoid problems with the West.”

Other Topics of Interest

Ukraine Must Join the Joint Expeditionary Force, and the UK Should Lead the Way

The UK has been a leader in helping Ukraine. But as inertia sets in and with Western support wavering, efforts must be redoubled. The JEF is a natural bridge to NATO.

 You can read more about this story here.

 What was in President Zelensky’s latest message?

 During his nightly address on Monday, April 10, Zelensky confirmed that Ukraine and Russia exchanged 100 soldiers in the latest prisoner swap. He expressed gratitude to everybody involved in returning people from captivity.

 Zelensky also mentioned his meeting with British entrepreneur Richard Branson, founder of the Virgin Group and Virgin Unite non-profit foundation. Branson joined the team of ambassadors of the United24 fundraising platform. Zelensky  thanked the businessman for his powerful messages in support of Ukraine during the on-going war.

 What’s the latest military situation?

 The British Ministry of Defense (MoD) in its April 11 Intelligence Update reports that, as of April 3, Russian media reported the transfer of TO5-1A thermobaric multiple launch rocket systems to Russian airborne forces (VDV). It adds that the highly destructive weapon – designated by Russia as a “heavy flamethrower” – is typically operated by specialist Chemical, Biological and Radiological Protection Troops in Ukraine, and has not previously been associated with the VDV.

 The MoD assesses that this likely indicates a future role for the VDV in offensive operations in Ukraine after suffering heavy casualties in the first nine months of the war.

The Institute for the Study of War’s April 10 daily assessment reports Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is reportedly advancing his political aspirations by seeking to gain control of a Russian political party.

 Russian opposition outlet Meduza reported that Prigozhin’s growing cooperation with members of the A Just Russia – For Truth party, likely indicates that he intends to gain control over the party.

 At the same time, according to a U.S. think tank, the Kremlin is putting serious effort into discrediting and undermining Prigozhin. For the first time, Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) responded to his criticism.

 Prigozhin criticized the MFA’s work in Africa on April 7, claiming that it does “absolutely nothing” and that Wagner forces face “enormous difficulties” when interacting with the MFA and other government institutions in the region.

 The MFA responded to Prigozhin’s criticism on April 9, saying that it is ready to cooperate with Russian businesses and entrepreneurs to promote Russian businesses abroad; furthermore, that a number of upcoming events under Russia’s UN Security Council chairmanship are dedicated to African issues.

The ISW also notes that: 

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin may be unable to satisfy the role of patron to loyalist figures to the same extent as before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

·       The Russian State Duma will consider an amendment to the Russian Criminal Code, increasing criminal penalties for high treason and terrorist activities on April 13.

·       Russian forces continue defensive preparations in Ukraine’s Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.

·       Prigozhin criticized Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) prisoner recruitment efforts, likely in an effort to advertise ongoing Wagner volunteer recruitment campaigns.

·       Wagner forces are reportedly continuing to commit war crimes by beheading Ukrainian servicemen in Bakhmut.

·       Russian officials and occupation authorities continue to deport children to Russia under the guise of medical, rehabilitation, and voluntary evacuation schemes.