Daily Briefing from Ukraine – Thursday, June 15

Your news for the morning of Thursday, June 15 – Day 477 of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine.

• Top 5 Headlines
• Ukraine Summer Offensive Summary
• President Zelensky’s Message of the Day
• Infographic of the Day
• FYI Kyiv Locals

Top 5 Headlines

1.     Intense fighting took place at several points where the Ukrainian summer offensive continues to probe Russian-occupied territory. Hot spots included Makarivka on the T0518 farm road axis in the boundary area between the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions, and south of Orihiv in western Zaporizhzhia region.

2.     Nuclear brinksmanship escalated around the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). The planned visit by the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) leadership was delayed due to security concerns. Ukraine claimed that Russia has ceased automated data transmission from ZNPP’s radiation monitoring sensors.

3.     Three Ukrainian civilians were killed by Russian missile strikes on Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka, regional authorities said. A woman in Chernihiv was killed by a Russian artillery attack. Missile, drone and/or long-range artillery attacks took place overnight, including in Kharkiv, Odesa, Kherson and Kryvyi Rih.

4.     In international relations, Ukraine’s President Zelensky spoke with Poland’s President Andrzej Duda about the NATO Summit providing security guarantees and NATO membership for Ukraine; German Chancellor Olaf Scholz highlighted the need for Ukraine’s victory when launching Germany’s first-ever National Security Strategy, and; US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken headed to Beijing to discuss the war on Ukraine.

Other Topics of Interest

Russia's Problems Are Compounding Faster Than You Think

Operator Starsky, the well-known Ukrainian veteran, reservist, blogger, and co-founder of the Propaganda Study Institute, says that Russia is anxious to prove to others that it is a global leader.

5.     More air defense for Ukraine will be the main topic at today’s meeting of the Ramstein format of Ukraine’s 54 military allies, following a preliminary discussion between Ukraine’s Defense Minister and the US Secretary of Defense yesterday.

Ukraine Summer Offensive Summary

Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar, a key spokesperson for the offensive, said: 

• Ukrainian troops are conducting offensive operations, as well as defensive ones, in various parts of the front;
• In the south, troops are facing mine fields impeding progress and increased Russian use of anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) and kamikaze drones;
• Increased Russian assaults in Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Marinka in the Donetsk region, including some 40 firefights in last 24 hours.
• “A very serious confrontation is ongoing.”

A.    TO518 / Mokry Yali River Axis – boundary of Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions

• Heavy rain and poor weather;
• Combat around the villages of Makarivka, Urozhaine, Staromayorske, Rivnopil, Novodonetske and Novomayorske;
• Russian counterattacks on positions claimed by Ukrainian forces in the last week around Makarivka and Urozhaine;
• Ukrainian de-mining activity between Levadne and Makarivka to possibly consolidate and broaden point of attack;
• Uptick in number of tactical combat air sorties over southern Ukraine, according to British Defense Intelligence, and;
• Claims of major Russian casualties (up to four companies) and military hardware losses (56 units) by Ukrainian regional commander.

 B.    Western Zaporizhzhia

• Renewed Ukrainian probing activity west of Orihiv toward Lobkove and Verkhna Krynytsya, reported by Russian sources.
• Ukrainian claims of gains of between 300 and 350 meters. 

C.     Bakhmut

• Ukrainian assaults on the northern flank (around Orikhovo-Vasylkivka) and southern flank (around Yahidne) of city reported with potential gains of 200 to 500 meters, and;
• Russian counterattacks reportedly repelled.

D.    Other Theatres

• Krasnodar in Russia experienced a series of explosions last night.

Institute for the Study of War (ISW) June 14 campaign assessment highlights:

• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three directions and made gains on June 14.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces struck a division of the 20th Combined Arms Army (Western Military District) near Kreminna, Luhansk region while they were waiting for the commander of the 20th CAA to give a speech.
• Russian forces conducted missile and drone strikes across Ukraine.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in the Kupiansk direction and south of Kreminna.
• Ukrainian and Russian forces continued ground attacks in the Bakhmut area.
• Russian forces continued limited ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near the boundary of the
• Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions and reportedly made gains in this area as of June 14.
• Ukrainian forces continued limited attacks in western Zaporizhzhia region as of June 14.

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine update at 06:00 on June 15 (Day 477) reports:

• Russian missile and drone attacks consisting of four Kh-101/555 missiles (one destroyed), 27 Shahed drones (26 destroyed), six Kh-22 missiles, and; four Kalibr missiles (three destroyed).
• 38 Russian air raids;  
• 52 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) attacks;
• 49 defensive firefights;
• Russian air raids took place in locations in the following regions: Chernihiv (one); Donetsk (nine); and Kharkiv (four);
• Russian artillery, rocket and mortar fire took place in locations in the following regions: Chernihiv (two); Kharkiv (16); Sumy (15); Luhansk (four); Donetsk (51); Zaporizhzhia (five); Kherson (eight); and Mykolayiv (1)
• Ukrainian air forces undertook 14 raids including against 13 Russian troop concentrations positions, two command centers, three electronic warfare stations, and three rocket launching positions.  and equipment.

President Zelensky’s Message

Infographic of the Day

FYI Kyiv Locals

It’s the end of the school year for many Kyiv students. On June 15 and 16, Kyiv’s 420 schools will ring the last bell. For security reasons, each school is deciding when, where and how to wish its students, teachers and parents all the best for a very, very well-deserved summer holiday.