ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 4, 2023

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Ukrainian forces conducted a series of aerial and naval drone strikes against Russian logistics and port infrastructure in occupied Crimea and Krasnodar Krai (a key Russian naval base) on the night of August 3 to 4.
• Russian milbloggers characteristically lambasted the Russian MoD for lying about the naval drone strikes and called on the Russian military to escalate activities in the Black Sea.
• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 4.
• The Kremlin continues to express its unwillingness to return to the Black Sea Grain Initiative in the absence of extensive concessions from the West.
• Tula Oblast Governor Alexei Dyumin reportedly facilitated the reinstatement of the commander of the Russian 106th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division, Major General Vladimir Seliverstov, after meeting Putin’s Chief of Staff Anton Vaino on July 21.
• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 4.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, in the Zaporizhia-Donetsk Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 4 and made advances in certain areas.
• A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that China’s “temporary” export restrictions on drones may severely impact the ability of Russian volunteers to supply drones to Russian servicemen fighting in Ukraine.
• Russian authorities are continuing to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of summer camps.

Authors: Kateryna Stepanenko, Riley Bailey, Angelica Evans, Christina Harward, and Mason Clark.

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