Snapshot
Russian forces press the line in all theaters; Ukraine’s “Dnipro Devils” may be making gains on the occupied, left bank of the major river artery.
JOIN US ON TELEGRAM
Follow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official.
Analysis
Writing for the Atlantic Council, analyst Maksym Skrypchenko noted the following:
“In recent weeks, an unsettling narrative has begun to take shape in some segments of the international information space. With Ukraine’s much hyped counteroffensive making minimal progress, a range of commentators have started suggesting the time has come to push Ukraine to the negotiating table rather than prolong the current stalemate.
“Such arguments are dangerously misleading. In reality, the slow pace of Ukraine’s counteroffensive progress should not come as a surprise. After all, Ukraine lacks modern aviation and long-range strike capabilities, while Russia has had many months to prepare formidable defenses across occupied Ukrainian territory, including complex fortifications and vast minefields.
“The real question is whether the West is doing enough to support Ukraine’s military efforts. The blunt answer is no.”
General Developments
As many as 20,000 Ukrainian recruits have undergone basic training as part of the British-led multinational Operation Interflex, according to the official Facebook page of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). The operation has involved instructors from the UK, Australia, Denmark, Canada, Lithuania, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Finland, Sweden and Ukraine.
ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December, 30, 2024
Russia has removed more than 40 percent of old tanks and armored personnel carriers from its largest mothballed equipment base, Vagzhanovo in Buryatia, since the start of the full-scale invasion, The Moscow Times reported based on analysis of satellite imagery. About 3,840 armored vehicles were stored at Vagzhanovo five months before the full-scale war. In May 2023, about 2,270 armored vehicles were stored there.
· Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka–Donetsk City line, in the eastern Donetsk-western Zaporizhzhia regional border area, and in western Donetsk region on August 8 and made advances in certain areas, ISW reported.
Operational Aspects on Dnipro, in Russia and elsewhere
Ukrainian forces appear to have conducted a limited raid across the Dnipro River and landed on the east (left) bank of occupied Kherson region, ISW reported. It remains unclear whether Ukrainian troops have established an enduring presence on the east bank, ISW added. This follows multiple reports from pro-Ukrainian milbloggers about military activity at several points on the Dnipro.
Ukrainian forces may have released photos from the raid of reportedly captured Russian troops on Telegram. The caption on the post read: “Results of the raid of the HUR special forces and units of the AFU on the left bank of the Kherson region.” The post continued: “As a result of the actions of the Defense Forces, the Katsap [derogatory slang for Russian – ed.] forces in that direction were forced to leave the Kozachi Lager settlement and the nearest strongholds.”
Pro-Russian milbloggers, who have previously called local Ukrainian forces “devils,” acknowledged the raid, but not its success. One posted: “Ukrainian formations continue to look for weaknesses in the Russian defenses. Today, under the cover of night, special forces of the AFU landed around Kozachi Lager on the left bank of the Dnipro in the Kherson region. On the outskirts of the settlement, the enemy was driven back and driven to the opposite side.”
The mayor of Moscow announced a new attack on the city by two drones.
The governor of the Bryansk region of the Russian Federation announced that the village of Bila Berizka came under fire. An administrative building, an industrial enterprise and residential buildings were damaged in the settlement.
Operational Aspects on the Northern Front
· Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations and made advances near Svatove, ISW reported.
A pro-Russian milblogger posted that “in the Luhansk axis, the AFU advanced towards Karmazinivka.”
DeepState, a pro-Ukrainian milblogger, said that “Katsaps regained control over Novoselivskyi.”
DeepState also posted a description of local conditions reportedly from an on-the-ground solider:
"Regarding the Kupyansk district. The enemy has brought up fresh forces and a considerable number of assault units. It is carrying out attacks on foot through fields and forest strips, which is facilitated by two-meter grass. From our side, the number of o/s does not allow us to reliably cover every meter, so the enemy’s tactics sometimes give it has to cover and bypass our observation points and detachment positions. We actually have no platoon/company strongpoints.
“However, the enemy’s forces are quickly exhausted. At least three assault companies lie dead, for example, in a forest strip one and a half kilometers long. The willingness of Russians to die involuntarily amazes me. To walk two kilometers after landing, then to jump on a machine gun, and die in two seconds – this is really the story of the life of a Russian stormtrooper.”
AFU Ground Forces commander Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrsky visited the Kupyansk area.
Operational Aspects on the Eastern Front
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and other Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks around Bakhmut, ISW reported.
However, Ukrainian forces continue to hold the initiative on the battlefield in Bakhmut despite heavy Russian shelling, Serhii Cherevaty, the spokesperson for Ukraine’s eastern military forces claimed.
Operational Aspects on the Southern Front
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in the Berdyansk (western Donetsk–eastern Zaporizhzhia regional border area) and Melitopol (western Zaporizhzhia region) axes.
The New York Times reported that a Ukrainian battalion commander operating in southern Ukraine described counteroffensive operations as a “marathon” and “not a sprint.”
A pro-Russian milblogger posted that “in the [western] Zaporizhzhia sector, the enemy continued to attack near Orikhiv, but could not achieve any significant progress in the direction of Piatykhatky and Robotyne.”
A pro-Russian milblogger posted that “fighting continues in Staromaiorske – the enemy controls the northern part of the village and is trying to expand the zone of control around the village in order to be able to intensively attack the adjacent heights, which are controlled by the RF Armed Forces.”
The AFU have entered the first line of defense of the Russian Army in the south of Ukraine, a spokesman for Ukraine’s southern forces said. “We have already entered the first line of the invaders, and the first line is very difficult. But our military is pressing on. We are moving forward, and this movement is slowed down by minefields and our lack of aviation,” said Serhii Kuzmin.
According to Kuzmin, there are more and more trained Russian soldiers at the front. The troops of the Russian Federation are moving reserves from the second line of defense, in particular marines, paratroopers and special forces.
You can also highlight the text and press Ctrl + Enter
